Bruno Giovannetti

Trade Liberalization and the Demand for Skilled Labor in Brazil

O ver the past three decades, labor markets in developing countries went through important changes in terms of wage differentials and the employment composition of their workforce. One of these changes was the fast rise in the supply of workers with intermediate levels of education, both in absolute terms and relative to the supply of workers with higher and lower education levels. Moreover, the wage differentials between college-educated workers and those with intermediate levels of education rose, while the differentials between the latter and workers with up to elementary education fell. These changes had important implications for poverty and inequality. Many Latin-American countries also went through trade liberalization processes in the 1980s and 1990s as part of a package of market-orientated reforms. These reforms induced important changes not only in their product markets, by changing relative prices and increasing the productivity of manufacturing firms, but also in the labor markets, by spurring labor reallocation and transition into the informal sector. A significant body of research links the changes in the wage differentials reported above to the trade liberalization process, following a literature that first examined the impact of trade liberalization on inequality in the United States and other developed countries.

Medindo a fidelidade das torcidas brasileiras: uma análise econômica no futebol

Este trabalho modela o comportamento de torcidas do futebol profissional brasileiro no que se refere a presenca nos estadios. A partir dai, busca testar a fidelidade das mesmas no campeonato brasileiro de 2004. Para isso estima, para os grandes times nacionais, quais foram as torcidas cujo numero de torcedores presentes nos jogos pode ser explicado pela expectativa da torcida com relacao ao resultado do jogo. Assim, dois passos sao seguidos, ambos baseados no nacional de 2004: o primeiro procura estimar, jogo a jogo, um vetor de probabilidade de vitoria, empate e derrota do time, atraves de um Logit Ordenado; o segundo busca estimar, torcida a torcida, quais tem a presenca nos estadios determinada pela expectativa percebida com relacao ao resultado do jogo. Para tal campeonato, apenas 3 torcidas aparecem como infieis, quais sejam, dos clubes Atletico Mineiro, Gremio e Internacional de Porto Alegre.

Central Bank Communication Affects the Term-Structure of Interest Rates

We empirically analyze how the Brazilian Central Bank (BCB) communication affects the term structure of future interest rates. Using principal components analysis, we construct a measure of the Monetary Policy Committee Minutes content that reflects policy makers optimism about the economic conditions. We call this measure the Optimism Factor (OF). When policy makers are more optimistic, reflected by increments in the OF, markets expectations respond and long-term future interest rates drop. Furthermore, when policy makers are pessimistic, reflected by a decrease in the OF, volatility on future interest rates increases. Our result indicates that policy maker communication has an effective impact on market expectations.