Bs Felmingham

The relationship between inward direct foreign investment and China's provincial export trade

Abstract This study evaluates the causal links between inward foreign direct investment (FDI) and exports from the PRC as a whole and also from its provinces. The national study is based on a monthly time series for the years 1986 to 1999 and cointegration/error correction modelling (ECM) techniques are used to conclude that for the PRC as a whole the relationship between FDI and exports is bidirectional. The relationship between inward FDI/exports for the PRCs provinces, cities, and autonomous regions is analysed in three panel data sets: the high FDI recipients (HFDI, n=144) concentrated along the Chinese coast, medium FDI recipients (MFDI, n=192) in Central China, and the low FDI group (LFDI, n=128) in Western China. The panel data studies reveal that in the HFDI and LFDI, bidirectional causality applies, while exports Granger cause FDI in the MFDI. All regional results are confirmed by Sims tests. The policy implications are explained.

The Role of FDI, Exports and Spillover Effects in the Regional Development of China

The objective of this analysis is to assess the impacts of export expansion, inward FDI, domestic investment and labour on the growth of Chinas Eastern, Central and Western regions using panel data over the period 1984 to 1998. A major contribution of the study is its tests for the presence of interregional spillover effects. The study indicates that both inward FDI and domestic investment stimulate growth in all three regions and for the PRC as a whole and that export expansion stimulates the growth of the PRC, Eastern and Central China, but not the West. Labour enhances the growth of the more traditional Western region, but not the more capital intensive Eastern seaboard or the PRC in its entirety. Finally, output growth spills over from the East to Western and Central China and from the Central area to Western China. These results are fully explained in the text.

The Interdependence of Share Markets in the Developed Economies of East Asia

The interdependence of Japan’s Nikkei (JN), Taiwan Weighted (TW), Singapore Strait Times (SST), Korea Composite (KC) and Hang Seng (HS) SPIs is tested on 2739 daily observations for July 8, 1990 to July 6, 2000.

The Long Run Demand for Broad Money in Australia Subject to Regime Shifts

The goal is to determine if there is a stable Broad Money demand relationship for Australia. Previous studies have not reached a consensus on this important issue, partly because the time series techniques used do not accommodate structural breaks. A standard multivariate cointegration analysis is conducted on monthly data over the period 1976(3) to 1998(4). It reveals some evidence for the presence of cointegration since one cointegrating vector is found. This involves broad money, the spread between interest on broad money and on non-money assets and real GDP. The evidence of cointegration is again present when a structural break is found in the relationship using Gregory and Hansen (GH) methodology. This occurs in 1991 coinciding with a deep recession and policy induced, interest rate reductions. The income elasticity of demand exceeds one, reacts positively to the interest spread and negatively to inflation. Copyright 2001 by Blackwell Publishers Ltd/University of Adelaide and Flinders University of South Australia

AS THE POPULATION CLOCK WINDS DOWN: INDICATIVE EFFECTS OF POPULATION AGEING IN AUSTRALIA'S STATES AND TERRITORIES

Among the more profound features of population ageing is its regionality. This regionality is particularly marked in Australia, where the timing and speed of ageing are occurring at substantially different rates by state and territory. The shift to natural decline is expected to create many social, economic and political predicaments where it is first experienced. In Australia, Tasmania will be the first to enter natural decline, followed soon thereafter by South Australia, but not for several years by the youngest states and territories. These diverging demographic forces will have many implications for the complex mixture of federal, state and local government that currently adjudicates over policy-making and implementation, especially concerning the collection of taxes, the distribution of the goods and services of the Welfare State, and a large element of fiscal redistribution. This paper provides an overview of demographic characteristics and dynamics by region, and examines their projected effects on three socio-economic indicators: educational demand, the labour market, and demand for Age Pensions. The changing demography will have both beneficial and adverse affects, and unless the profound regionality is soon understood and engaged with, currently older and younger states are likely to encounter not only diverging demographic forces, but also diverging fortunes.

The Demographic Gift in Australia

South Africas weak and fragmented primary health care system is one of the countrys most critical health problems. JUDI FORTUIN argues for decentralised and active community participation in all areas of health transformation

A note on the stability of real interest rates in Australia

Abstract The stability (stationarity) of real interest rates and surveys of expected inflation in Australia is analyzed over the period 1993(10) to 2001(10). We find that the real yields on Australian 2-, 5-, and 10-year bonds are stationary in levels whereas the real overnight cash and the bank-accepted bills (BABs) 90-day real rates are stationary subject to structural breaks occurring in September 1994 and October 1994, respectively. These breaks were identified by applying tests proposed by Nunes et al. [Oxf. Bull. Econ. Stat. 59 (1997) 435]. An application of the Nunes test to the surveyed expected inflation series points to a structural break in this series in January 1998. Our results indicate that while real long-term bond yields in Australia are relatively stable, short-term yields and expected inflation are susceptible to domestic policy changes and international influences.

The cyclical and trend behavour of Australian investment and savings

A spectral analysis of the Australian time series for the investment and savings ratios on quarterly data over the period from September 1959 to December 2005 reveals that the major cyclical components of the savings and investment ratios cohere strongly. This suggests there is a medium to long term relationship between investment and savings. Further, the investment and saving ratios cohere strongly with the business cycle suggesting a procyclical pattern of investment and saving behaviour on Australian data. A subsequent long memory analysis reveals that the saving and investment ratios, the investment ratio and real GDP and the savings ratio and real GDP are fractionally cointegrated. The policy implications are explained.

First and second order instability of the Shanghai and Shenzhen share price indices

First and second order instability tests are applied to Chinas two major share market price indices (SPIs), Shanghai share market price index (SES) and Shenzhen share market price index (SZS) using daily data from 2 January 1992 to 16 July 2004. First order instability is synonymous with non stationarity and second order instability with structural breaks. Applying procedures developed by Perron (1997) and Zivot and Andrews (1992), it is found that both share price indices are unstable in the first and second order. The Shanghai series breaks in December 1999 and Shenzhen in May 1999. Existence of the share A (domestic listing) and share B (foreign listing) seem to buffer both markets against the worst effects of the Asian Crisis and September 11 attack. These shocks were apparently absorbed by the foreign listings of shares.

The stationarity of Australian real interest rates with and without structural breaks

The Australian cash rate is generally unstable, while surveyed expected inflation and the 90 day bank bill rate are stationary subject to breaks. Real bond rates (2, 5, 10 years) are stationary in levels. Policy and market implications are drawn.