N Jackson

Educational Attainment and the (Growing) Importance of Age Structure: Indigenous and Non-Indigenous Australians

Australia’s Indigenous population has a markedly younger age structure than its non-Indigenous counterpart. As a result, greater proportions of the Indigenous population are presently at school and approaching tertiary education age, meaning that any declines in gaps between the two populations in terms of educational attainment may be more apparent than real; a reflection of the differing age structures, rather than true improvement. This paper illustrates the argument across the period 1981–2006. It shows first that crude gaps in educational attainment between the two populations in fact increased across the period, for both pre-tertiary (Year 12) attendance and post-school qualifications, after first declining slightly between 1981 and 1991. Using a classic standardization technique it then illustrates how the differences in age structure conceal what would otherwise be greater or smaller gaps. Although most of the age effects are at present small, the findings indicate the increasing optimality of the Indigenous age structure for the gaining of qualifications, and make it imperative that these differences be explicitly acknowledged and built into all policy interventions. Similarly the findings indicate that any such interventions should be carefully monitored for their potential to negatively discriminate on the basis of age structure.

AS THE POPULATION CLOCK WINDS DOWN: INDICATIVE EFFECTS OF POPULATION AGEING IN AUSTRALIA'S STATES AND TERRITORIES

Among the more profound features of population ageing is its regionality. This regionality is particularly marked in Australia, where the timing and speed of ageing are occurring at substantially different rates by state and territory. The shift to natural decline is expected to create many social, economic and political predicaments where it is first experienced. In Australia, Tasmania will be the first to enter natural decline, followed soon thereafter by South Australia, but not for several years by the youngest states and territories. These diverging demographic forces will have many implications for the complex mixture of federal, state and local government that currently adjudicates over policy-making and implementation, especially concerning the collection of taxes, the distribution of the goods and services of the Welfare State, and a large element of fiscal redistribution. This paper provides an overview of demographic characteristics and dynamics by region, and examines their projected effects on three socio-economic indicators: educational demand, the labour market, and demand for Age Pensions. The changing demography will have both beneficial and adverse affects, and unless the profound regionality is soon understood and engaged with, currently older and younger states are likely to encounter not only diverging demographic forces, but also diverging fortunes.

The Demographic Gift in Australia

South Africas weak and fragmented primary health care system is one of the countrys most critical health problems. JUDI FORTUIN argues for decentralised and active community participation in all areas of health transformation