Budi Hartono

Understanding risky bidding: a prospect‐contingent perspective

A descriptive research school of thought provides the context for an examination of contractors’ risky bid mark-up decisions in a competitive bidding setting. Grounded in prospect theory and the one‐reason decision model, a contingency‐based theoretical model was developed to explain and to predict bid mark‐up decisions in light of four identified determinants, namely: perceived ‘rate of returns’, ‘revenues’, ‘project backlogs’ and ‘project strategic importance’. Three scenarios according to this model were verified by means of a self‐administered survey in the Singapore construction industry. By using cluster analysis, five groups of bidders with distinctive bid profiles were identified and the associated bid mark‐ups were calculated. The emerging groups provide an empirical illustration on how the theoretical model is utilized. For instance, one group of bidders (n = 16) demonstrates a scenario of the model in which participating bidders had considered the reported project bid as having high strategic importance to their organizations and hence made aggressive, low bid mark‐ups. The theoretically grounded framework could be used by contractors to improve their own bidding strategy in anticipating the likely behaviour of the competitors.

An empirically verified project risk maturity model

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to develop and to empirically verify a model of project risk management maturity (PRMM). Design/methodology/approach – Theoretical work to develop the initial model of risk maturity. Empirical study by a cross-sectional survey to the Indonesian construction industry. Findings – A new model of PRMM is developed and empirically tested. The model is valid (face validity, content validity, discriminant validity, convergent validity, and criterion validity) and reliable. Research limitations/implications – A more comprehensive, follow-up study is required to gain more insights on the actual maturity level of Indonesian construction industry. Practical implications – The model is applicable to assess the organizational maturity level which in turn could be used for improving organization performance. Originality/value – The work demonstrates a novel approach in developing models by emphasizing on the empirical verification.

From project risk to complexity analysis: a systematic classification

The purpose of this paper is to provide a systematic classification for frameworks, methods, and models of in-project quantitative risk analysis (IQRA) for the last 30 years.,An extensive literature review is conducted to identify pertinent IQRA works. Identified IQRA frameworks/methods/models are then classified on the basis of commonalities in key attributes and assumptions. Linkages between each category of IQRAs and dimensions of complexity are also observed.,Around 70 key publications on IQRAs are identified. Major attributes for each work are described. Five distinct categories of IQRAs emerge with unique linkages to complexity dimensions. An analytical framework in the form of a matrix is presented to illuminate evolution on modeling characteristics and to indicate a relationship between respective category and dimensions of project complexity.,The research coverage is intended to be comprehensive but it is by no means exhaustive. This study highlights research opportunities in IQRAs and the possible extension toward in-project quantitative complexity analysis (IQCA).,The proposed matrix provides guidance to practitioners to select the appropriate category of IQRAs for a specific project complexity type in a contingency fashion. The study highlights lessons from development and utilization of IQRAs. Outstanding issues from IQRAs are discussed to avoid similar drawbacks for IQCAs.,This study provides an original framework/matrix to classify extant works in IQRAs. It also establishes an association between IQRAs and the emerging conceptual works of complexity.

Community behavior during the evacuation of Mount Merapi eruption disaster

This paper explains attributes that can affect peoples behavior in evacuation decision-making from Mount Merapi eruption, starting from pre-evacuation phase, vehicle selection phase, to evacuation route selection phase to reach a safe point. These factors were obtained through previous research, relevant to the characteristics of communities around Mount Merapi in facing an emergency evacuation from Mount Merapi eruption. Located in the Special Region of Yogyakarta, Indonesia, Mount Merapi is one of the most active volcanoes in the world which has a unique type of eruption and culture of surrounding communities. In the last stage, this paper also provides guidelines for analysis methods which can be used to solve emergency evacuation problems in order to minimize victims.

Communication constraints and motivations in the context of knowledge sharing: A Systematic Literature Review

Innovation and product development activities in firms in almost all countries rely on the product development teams comprised of across functions. The members of product development team are those coming from various backgrounds, across departments and across areas of science. In many product development projects, team members do not always collaborate as expected due to differences in views and poor communication. This Systematic Literature Review explored what factors are inhibitining and motivate product development teams in their communication to share knowledge. Based on the review of 34 relevant articles, this paper presents five factors which inhibit the team members to communicate (functional diversity, homophily, knowledge hoarding, organizational culture, centralization) and five factors which motivate the team members to communicate (reward system, organizational culture, trust, colocated, technology).

Secondary task and risky driving behavior: a test of the mediating effect of situation awareness

A theoretical model is developed by using a contingency perspective to hypothesize the relationship between a secondary task and risky driving behavior. It is conjectured that the relationship between the two variables is mediated by situation awareness (SA). An experiment is designed and administered to provide empirical evidence. Thirty Indonesian students as subjects were required to carry out a driving assignment in a simulated environment. Empirical evidence suggests that SA provides a partial mediation effect towards the relationship between a secondary task and risky driving behavior. It is also found that a secondary task has a significant effect on risky driving behavior. The secondary task also becomes a significant explanation of SA. In addition, working memory capacity, experience and gender are found to have no significant impact towards SA.

Project performance indicators of engineering design groups: Evaluation and proposed improvement

The study aims at investigating the current approach in utilizing project performance indicators for engineering groups within the context of engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) project. A systems dynamics methodology is utilized and an EPC project of developing a geothermal power plant is observed. The result confirms a common wisdom that the underlying assumption utilized by current assessment methods does not reflect an accurate assessment of group or departmental performance. This is due to systemic errors beyond the scope of the particular department. A proposed model is developed to assist the adjustment of project schedule baseline. It considers systemic effects hence provide a more accurate performance evaluation model.

Estimation Biases in Construction Projects: Further Evidence

Construction projects are characterized by their unique and temporary features. Very limited data, if any, would be available and readily transferable for the analysis of subsequent projects. Hence most project analysts would depend on intuitions and gut feelings to make judgment and estimations. This experimental study is a follow-up study on investigating the possible existence of systematic estimation errors (biases in estimations) in an Indonesian context. It is focused on the two suspected types of biases; the anchoring accuracy and overconfidence biases in project time duration estimates. Two groups of estimators (experienced, n = 20 vs. non-experienced, n = 20) were involved in the study. A hypothetical project case based on an actual construction project was developed. The estimators were then individually requested to provide duration estimates (for each project activity and overall) for the project case. The estimates were then compared against the actual duration of the project. The result of suggests that anchoring bias is not statistically observable for both non-experienced and experienced estimators. This study finds that overconfidence bias is identifiable when making the range estimation of the project duration.