Bumsoo Lee

'Edge' or 'Edgeless' Cities? Urban Spatial Structure in U.S. Metropolitan Areas, 1980 to 2000

This paper presents a descriptive analysis of spatial trends in six US metropolitan areas. The results show that jobs continued to decentralize from the metropolitan core to the suburbs and generalized jobs dispersion was more common than subcentering in the 1980s and 1990s. Three distinctive patterns of spatial development were identified: Jobs dispersion was a predominant spatial process in Portland and Philadelphia; the traditional centers remained strong agglomerations in New York and Boston; and progressive employment subcentering occurred in Los Angeles and San Francisco. They seem to have developed unique paths of job dispersion, in light of their histories and circumstances, that limit the growth of mean commute times.

The economic impacts of the September 11 terrorist attacks: a computable general equilibrium analysis

This paper develops a bottom-up approach that focuses on behavioral responses in estimating the total economic impacts of the September 11, 2001, World Trade Center (WTC) attacks. The estimation includes several new features. First, is the collection of data on the relocation of firms displaced by the attack, the major source of resilience in muting the direct impacts of the event. Second, is a new estimate of the major source of impacts off-site -- the ensuing decline of air travel and related tourism in the U.S. due to the social amplification of the fear of terrorism. Third, the estimation is performed for the first time using Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) analysis, including a new approach to reflecting the direct effects of external shocks. This modeling framework has many advantages in this application, such as the ability to include behavioral responses of individual businesses and households, to incorporate features of inherent and adaptive resilience at the level of the individual decision maker and the market, and to gauge quantity and price interaction effects across sectors of the regional and national economies. We find that the total business interruption losses from the WTC attacks on the U.S. economy were only slightly over

Exploring Reductions in London Underground Passenger Journeys Following the July 2005 Bombings

100 billion, or less than 1.0% of Gross Domestic Product. The impacts were only a loss of

Effects on the U.S. of an H1N1 Epidemic: Analysis with a Quarterly CGE model

14 billion of Gross Regional Product for the New York Metropolitan Area.

Commuting Trends in U.S. Cities in the 1990s

We examine the reduction in London Underground passenger journeys in response to the July 2005 bombings. Using entrance data for London Underground stations between 2001 and 2007, we incorporate demand and supply factors in a multivariate time-series regression model to estimate changes in passenger journeys between different Underground lines. We find that passenger journeys fell by an average of 8.3% for the 4 months following the attacks. This amounts to an overall reduction of 22.5 million passenger journeys for that period. Passenger journeys returned to predicted levels during September 2005, yet we find evidence of reduced travel until June 2006. Our estimates controlled for other factors, including reduced Underground service provision due to damage from the attacks, economic conditions, and weather, yet substantial reductions in passenger journeys remained. Around 82% of passenger journey reductions following the 2005 attacks cannot be attributed to supply-side factors or demand-side factors such as economic conditions, weather, or the summer school-break alone. We suggest that this reduction may partially be due to an increased perception of the risk of Underground travel after the attacks.

Estimating the State-by-State Economic Impacts of a Foot-and-Mouth Disease Attack

We simulate the effects of a hypothetical H1N1 epidemic in the U.S. using a quarterly CGE model. Quarterly periodicity allows us to capture the short-run nature of an epidemic. We find potentially severe economic effects in the peak quarter. Averaged over the epidemic year, the effects are considerably damped. Our results indicate that the macroeconomic consequences of an epidemic are more sensitive to demand-side effects, such as reductions in international tourism and leisure activities, than to supply-side effects, such as reductions in productivity. This suggests that demand stimulus policies might be an appropriate economic response to a serious epidemic.

Complementary Pricing and Land Use Policies: Does It Lead to Higher Transit Use?

This article attempts to explain the increase in commuting times in the 1990s after decades of stability. Although traditional explanations, for example both demographic variables (population growth and densities) and transportation variables (e.g. road capacity and transit use), pass the statistical significance tests, their overall impact was small. Instead, the article argues for the importance of strong income growth in the late 1990s, not least because it was associated with an increase in non-work vehicle miles traveled; these affect commuting times because many non-work trips take place in peak hours.

Simulating the Economic Impacts of a Hypothetical Bio-Terrorist Attack: A Sports Stadium Case

The agricultural sector is highly vulnerable to bioterrorism attacks with the potential for severe economic consequences. This article presents estimates of state-by-state total economic impacts of a hypothetical agroterrorism attack that uses foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) pathogens, which is one of the most contagious animal diseases and can be easily weaponized. The authors estimate the economic impacts across the U.S. states by applying the National Interstate Economic Model (NIEMO), a multiregional input output (MRIO) model. Total economic impacts range from

How Does Light Rail Transit (LRT) Impact Gentrification? Evidence from Fourteen US Urbanized Areas:

23 billion to

Emission Projections for Long-Haul Freight Trucks and Rail in the United States through 2050.

34 billion. The overwhelming sources of the losses are due to domestic and international demand cuts. The results of this research highlight the point that the economic impacts are nationwide, regardless of the location of the attack because of large-scale export losses.