C. A. de Koning

MULTI-POINT SHOCK AND FLUX ROPE ANALYSIS OF MULTIPLE INTERPLANETARY CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS AROUND 2010 AUGUST 1 IN THE INNER HELIOSPHERE

We present multi-point in situ observations of a complex sequence of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) which may serve as a benchmark event for numerical and empirical space weather prediction models. On 2010 August 1, instruments on various space missions, Solar Dynamics Observatory/Solar and Heliospheric Observatory/Solar-TErrestrial-RElations-Observatory (SDO/SOHO/STEREO), monitored several CMEs originating within tens of degrees from the solar disk center. We compare their imprints on four widely separated locations, spanning 120 degrees in heliospheric longitude, with radial distances from the Sun ranging from MESSENGER (0.38 AU) to Venus Express (VEX, at 0.72 AU) to Wind, ACE, and ARTEMIS near Earth and STEREO-B close to 1 AU. Calculating shock and flux rope parameters at each location points to a non-spherical shape of the shock, and shows the global configuration of the interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs), which have interacted, but do not seem to have merged. VEX and STEREO-B observed similar magnetic flux ropes (MFRs), in contrast to structures at Wind. The geomagnetic storm was intense, reaching two minima in the Dst index (approximate to-100 nT), and was caused by the sheath region behind the shock and one of two observed MFRs. MESSENGER received a glancing blow of the ICMEs, and the events missed STEREO-A entirely. The observations demonstrate how sympathetic solar eruptions may immerse at least 1/3 of the heliosphere in the ecliptic with their distinct plasma and magnetic field signatures. We also emphasize the difficulties in linking the local views derived from single-spacecraft observations to a consistent global picture, pointing to possible alterations from the classical picture of ICMEs.

Theoretical basis for operational ensemble forecasting of coronal mass ejections

We lay out the theoretical underpinnings for the application of the Wang-Sheeley-Arge-Enlil modeling system to ensemble forecasting of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in an operational environment. In such models, there is no magnetic cloud component, so our results pertain only to CME front properties, such as transit time to Earth. Within this framework, we find no evidence that the propagation is chaotic, and therefore, CME forecasting calls for different tactics than employed for terrestrial weather or hurricane forecasting. We explore a broad range of CME cone inputs and ambient states to flesh out differing CME evolutionary behavior in the various dynamical domains (e.g., large, fast CMEs launched into a slow ambient, and the converse; plus numerous permutations in between). CME propagation in both uniform and highly structured ambient flows is considered to assess how much the solar wind background affects the CME front properties at 1 AU. Graphical and analytic tools pertinent to an ensemble approach are developed to enable uncertainties in forecasting CME impact at Earth to be realistically estimated. We discuss how uncertainties in CME pointing relative to the Sun-Earth line affects the reliability of a forecast and how glancing blows become an issue for CME off-points greater than about the half width of the estimated input CME. While the basic results appear consistent with established impressions of CME behavior, the next step is to use existing records of well-observed CMEs at both Sun and Earth to verify that real events appear to follow the systematic tendencies presented in this study.

Validation of an Operational Product to Determine L1 to Earth Propagation Time Delays

We describe the development and validation of an operational space weather tool to forecast propagation delay times between L1 and Earth using the Weimer and King (2008) tilted phase front technique. A simple flat plane convection delay method is currently used by the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) to propagate the solar wind from a monitoring satellite located at L1 to a point upstream of the magnetosphere. This technique assumes that all observed solar wind discontinuities, such as interplanetary shocks and interplanetary coronal mass ejection boundaries, are in a flat plane perpendicular to the Sun-Earth line traveling in the GSE X direction at the observed solar wind velocity. In reality, these phase plane fronts can have significantly tilted orientations, and by relying on a ballistic propagation method, delay time errors of ±15 min are common. In principle, the propagation time delay product presented here should more accurately predict L1 to Earth transit times by taking these tilted phase plane fronts into account. This algorithm, which is based on the work of Weimer and King (2008), is currently running in real time in test mode at SWPC as part of the SWPC test bed. We discuss the current algorithm performance, and via our detailed validation study, show that there is no significant difference between the two propagation methods when run in a real-time operational environment.