C. Bora Durdu

Emerging Market Business Cycles: Recent Advances

Higher variability of consumption relative to output and strong countercyclicality of the trade balance are important regularities of emerging market business cycles. This paper surveys the recent advances in the literature with a goal to understanding the main drivers of these regularities. The literature suggests that trend shocks or countercyclical interest rate shocks are useful modeling tools, but these shocks need to be amplified through inherent frictions to capture these two regularities with realistic calibrations. Informational frictions in expectation formation and search-matching frictions in the labor market appear to provide powerful amplification to trend shocks and countercyclical interest rate shocks, respectively.