C. Borrego

Fire activity in Portugal and its relationship to weather and the Canadian Fire Weather Index System

The relationships among the weather, the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) System components, the monthly area burned, and the number of fire occurrences from 1980 to 2004 were investigated in 11 Portuguese districts that represent respectively 66% and 61% of the total area burned and number of fires in Portugal. A statistical approach was used to estimate the monthly area burned and the monthly number of fires per district, using meteorological variables and FWI System components as predictors. The approach succeeded in explaining from 60.9 to 80.4% of the variance for area burned and between 47.9 and 77.0% of the variance for the number of fires; all regressions were highly significant (P < 0.0001). The monthly mean and the monthly maximum of daily maximum temperatures and the monthly mean and extremes (maximum and 90th percentile) of the daily FWI were selected for all districts, except for Braganca and Porto, in the forward stepwise regression for area burned. For all districts combined, the variance explained was 80.9 and 63.0% for area burned and number of fires, respectively. Our results point to highly significant relationships among forest fires in Portugal and the weather and the Canadian FWI System. The present analysis provides baseline information for predicting the area burned and number of fires under future climate scenarios and the subsequent impacts on air quality.

Procedures for estimation of modelling uncertainty in air quality assessment

The main objectives of this work focus, firstly, on a review of the current existent methodologies to estimate air quality modelling uncertainty, and, secondly, in the preparation of guidelines for modelling uncertainty estimation, which can be used by local and regional authorities responsible for air quality management. From the application exercise, it was concluded that it is possible to define a subset of statistical parameters able to reproduce the general uncertainties estimation. Concerning the quality indicators defined by EU directives, the results show that the legislated uncertainty estimation measures are ambiguous and inadequate in several aspects, mainly in what concerns the error measures for hourly and daily indicators based on the highest observed concentration. A relative error at the percentile correspondent to the allowed number of exceedances of the limit value was suggested and tested, showing that is a more robust and appropriate parameter for model performance evaluation.

CFD modelling of the aerodynamic effect of trees on urban air pollution dispersion

The current work evaluates the impact of urban trees over the dispersion of carbon monoxide (CO) emitted by road traffic, due to the induced modification of the wind flow characteristics. With this purpose, the standard flow equations with a kε closure for turbulence were extended with the capability to account for the aerodynamic effect of trees over the wind field. Two CFD models were used for testing this numerical approach. Air quality simulations were conducted for two periods of 31h in selected areas of Lisbon and Aveiro, in Portugal, for distinct relative wind directions: approximately 45° and nearly parallel to the main avenue, respectively. The statistical evaluation of modelling performance and uncertainty revealed a significant improvement of results with trees, as shown by the reduction of the NMSE from 0.14 to 0.10 in Lisbon, and from 0.14 to 0.04 in Aveiro, which is independent from the CFD model applied. The consideration of the plant canopy allowed to fulfil the data quality objectives for ambient air quality modelling established by the Directive 2008/50/EC, with an important decrease of the maximum deviation between site measurements and CFD results. In the non-aligned wind situation an average 12% increase of the CO concentrations in the domain was observed as a response to the aerodynamic action of trees over the vertical exchange rates of polluted air with the above roof-level atmosphere; while for the aligned configuration an average 16% decrease was registered due to the enhanced ventilation of the street canyon. These results show that urban air quality can be optimised based on knowledge-based planning of green spaces.

Integrating health on air quality assessment — review report on health risks of two major european outdoor air pollutants: PM and NO

Quantifying the impact of air pollution on the public’s health has become an increasingly critical component in policy discussion. Recent data indicate that more than 70% of the world population lives in cities. Several studies reported that current levels of air pollutants in urban areas are associated with adverse health risks, namely, cardiovascular diseases and lung cancer. IARC recently classified outdoor air pollution and related particulate matter (PM) as carcinogenic to humans. Despite the air quality improvements observed over the last few years, there is still continued widespread exceedance within Europe, particularly regarding PM and nitrogen oxides (NOx). The European Air Quality Directive 2008/50/EC requires Member States to design appropriate air quality plans for zones where air quality does not comply with established limit values. However, in most cases, air quality is only quantified using a combination of monitored and modeled data and no health impact assessment is carried out. An integrated approach combining the effects of several emission abatement measures on air quality, impacts on human health, and associated implementation costs enables an effective cost–benefit analysis and an added value to the decision-making process. Hence, this review describes the basic steps and tools for integrating health into air quality assessment (health indicators, exposure-response functions). In addition, consideration is given to two major outdoor pollutants: PM and NO2. A summary of the health metrics used to assess the health impact of PM and NO2 and recent epidemiologic data are also described.

Urban photochemical pollution in the Iberian Peninsula: Lisbon and Barcelona airsheds.

Abstract Numerical simulations with photochemical transport models were independently performed for two domains situated in the Iberian Peninsula covering the Lisbon and Barcelona airsheds. Although the days chosen for simulation of the two cities are not the same, the synoptic situations in both cases, known as typical summertime situations, were similar, which allowed the development of typical mesoscale circulations, such as sea breezes and mountain and valley winds dominated by the Azores anticyclone. Emission inventories for the two areas were developed. The O3 concentrations recorded in both cities have a similar level. Nevertheless, Ox values in Barcelona are higher than in Lisbon, which may, at a first glance, indicate an apparently more oxidant atmosphere in Barcelona. Photochemical modeling for the two cities has shown that the behavior of the circulatory patterns in both urban areas is rather different, which mainly has to do with the different strengths of the sea breeze and the topography, inducing an important offshore vertical layered dimension of pollutant transport in Barcelona versus an important inland horizontal transport in Lisbon.

Impact of road traffic emissions on air quality of the Lisbon region

The main purpose of this paper is to present the study of traffic emissions impact on the Lisbon region air quality. Two approaches of emission data generation with high spatial and temporal resolution are presented and compared. Main roads were processed as line sources and hot on-road emissions were calculated based on daily mean traffic and emission factors distinguished for several road classes and vehicle types. Also, the disaggregation of national CORINAIR inventory has been performed on the basis of statistical information of fuel consumption and population density. The comparison of emission data obtained by these two approaches demonstrates a good agreement for total values, but a significant difference for spatial distribution of the data. To ensure completeness of the data, to improve their spatial resolution and also to analyse the impact of the traffic emissions, a combination of the two approaches was applied to generate the emission data used by a photochemical numerical system to simulate the atmospheric circulation and the air pollution pattern in Lisbon under summer meteorological conditions, having different emission scenarios. It was possible to conclude that an air pollution abatement strategy is urgently needed and it should take into account the strong contribution of road traffic emissions to the Lisbon air pollution levels.

Airways changes related to air pollution exposure in wheezing children

In this study, we aimed to evaluate the relationship between individual total exposure to air pollution and airway changes in a group of 51 wheezing children. Respiratory status was assessed four times (January 2006, June 2006, January 2007 and June 2007) during a 1-week period through a standardised questionnaire, spirometry, exhaled nitric oxide fraction and pH in exhaled breath condensate (EBC). Concentrations of particles with a 50% cut-off aerodynamic diameter of 10 µm (PM10), O3, NO2 and volatile organic compounds were estimated through direct measurements with an ad hoc device or air pollution modelling in the childrens schools and at their homes in the same 4 weeks of the study. For each child, total exposure to the different air pollutants was estimated as a function of pollutant concentrations and daily activity patterns. Increasing total exposure to PM10, NO2, benzene, toluene and ethylbenzene was significantly associated with a decrease of forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1) and with an increase of change in FEV1. Increasing exposure to NO2 and benzene was also related to a significant decrease of FEV1/forced vital capacity. Increasing exposure to PM10, NO2, benzene and ethylbenzene was associated with acidity of EBC. This study suggests an association in wheezing children between airway changes and total exposure to air pollutants, as estimated by taking into account the concentration in the various microenvironments attended by the children.

Smoke measurements during Gestosa-2002 experimental field fires

Currently, there is a growing awareness that smoke produced during forest fires can expose individuals and populations to hazardous concentrations of air pollutants. Aiming to contribute to a better understanding of the air pollution phenomenon associated with forest fires, this paper presents and analyses the atmospheric emissions and air quality concentration measurements performed in the 2002 fire experiments at Gestosa, Central Portugal. Two vehicles were equipped with a meteorological station and air quality analysers that were turned on continuously to acquire concentrations of particulate matter, nitrogen oxides and carbon monoxide. Nitrogen and sulfur dioxides were measured using a grid of fixed passive samplers. Also, firefighters and research-team members used passive samplers during the experiments in order to estimate the human exposure to these pollutants. Measurements of volatile organic compound emissions, using Tedlar bags, were carried out. Results were analysed taking into account not only the concentration values but also the variables involved, such as the combustion phase and the meteorology, and identifying possible relationships between them. Despite the small size of the burning plots when compared to wildfires, the measured levels of pollutants were however considerable, indicating the effect of these experiments on the local air quality and stressing the serious levels of air pollution that can be expected during wildfires.

Forest fire emissions in Portugal: a contribution to global warming?

A forecast of expected evolution of carbon dioxide (CO(2)) emissions in Portugal between 1988 and 2010 is presented. Predictions show that CO(2) emissions will almost double in the next twenty years. The equivalent potential CO(2) emissions from nitrogen oxides (NO(x)) and volatile organic compounds (VOC), for a time horizon of 20 years, is also presented. NO(x) and VOC emissions seem to make a significant contribution to the global warming potential of Portuguese emissions. Estimates of CO(2) emissions due to forest fires have been made, oriented towards the study of the Portuguese contribution to the global warming. If the burned area exceeds 100 000 ha this contribution could reach 7% of the total Portuguese CO(2) emissions. The global warming potential of Portuguese forest emissions were also calculated. The climate change predicted to Portugal could be responsible for an increase in the forest fires and consequently for a greater contribution of its emissions to the total values. It was concluded that it is important to quantify emissions of the greenhouse gases, including the contribution of forest fire emissions, not only in Portugal, but in all the Southern European countries.

COST 732 in practice: the MUST model evaluation exercise

The aim of this paper is to describe the use of a general methodology tailored to the evaluation of micro-scale meteorological models applied to flow and dispersion simulations in urban areas. This methodology, developed within COST 732, has been tested through a large modelling exercise involving many groups across Europe. The major test case used is the Mock Urban Setting Test (MUST) experiment representing an idealised urban area. It is emphasised that a full model evaluation is problem-dependent and requires several activities including a statistical validation that requires a careful choice of the metrics for the comparison with measurements.