J. Ferreira

Procedures for estimation of modelling uncertainty in air quality assessment

The main objectives of this work focus, firstly, on a review of the current existent methodologies to estimate air quality modelling uncertainty, and, secondly, in the preparation of guidelines for modelling uncertainty estimation, which can be used by local and regional authorities responsible for air quality management. From the application exercise, it was concluded that it is possible to define a subset of statistical parameters able to reproduce the general uncertainties estimation. Concerning the quality indicators defined by EU directives, the results show that the legislated uncertainty estimation measures are ambiguous and inadequate in several aspects, mainly in what concerns the error measures for hourly and daily indicators based on the highest observed concentration. A relative error at the percentile correspondent to the allowed number of exceedances of the limit value was suggested and tested, showing that is a more robust and appropriate parameter for model performance evaluation.

Smoke measurements during Gestosa-2002 experimental field fires

Currently, there is a growing awareness that smoke produced during forest fires can expose individuals and populations to hazardous concentrations of air pollutants. Aiming to contribute to a better understanding of the air pollution phenomenon associated with forest fires, this paper presents and analyses the atmospheric emissions and air quality concentration measurements performed in the 2002 fire experiments at Gestosa, Central Portugal. Two vehicles were equipped with a meteorological station and air quality analysers that were turned on continuously to acquire concentrations of particulate matter, nitrogen oxides and carbon monoxide. Nitrogen and sulfur dioxides were measured using a grid of fixed passive samplers. Also, firefighters and research-team members used passive samplers during the experiments in order to estimate the human exposure to these pollutants. Measurements of volatile organic compound emissions, using Tedlar bags, were carried out. Results were analysed taking into account not only the concentration values but also the variables involved, such as the combustion phase and the meteorology, and identifying possible relationships between them. Despite the small size of the burning plots when compared to wildfires, the measured levels of pollutants were however considerable, indicating the effect of these experiments on the local air quality and stressing the serious levels of air pollution that can be expected during wildfires.

Current air quality plans in Europe designed to support air quality management policies

Abstract The intensification of the human activity in urban areas as a result of the increasing population has contributed to the air pollution worsening in cities. To reverse this trend, the European Commission established a legal framework to improve the air quality. Thereby the Member States need to develop air quality plans (AQP) for zones and agglomerations where air quality limit values are exceeded, in order to implement pollution control strategies and meet the legal requirements. Understanding the reasons for the levels of air quality non–compliance as well as evaluating available and commonly used tools to predict the air quality and their effects, is crucial for the decision–making process on air quality management policies. Based on a compilation of regional and local AQP, a review of assessment capabilities and used modeling tools to evaluate the effects of emission abatement measures on the air quality and health was performed. In most cases, models are applied to estimate emissions and to assess the resulting air quality from both reference and emission abatement scenarios. Air quality’s impacts on the health and environment are rarely quantified. Regarding the air quality assessment, beyond the modeling, monitored data for validation of simulations are also used. Some studies, however, do not include the use of air quality models, considering the monitoring network as spatially representative of the study domain (e.g. Lisbon Region, Riga, Malta). In order to overcome methodological limitations for quantifying the impacts of emission abatement measures, economic evaluation techniques or even Integrated Assessment Methodologies (IAM) have been developed. IAM, already applied in some AQP or case studies, namely for Antwerp and London, are used for assessing how reductions in emissions contribute to improve air quality, reduce exposure and protect human health.

Air quality management in Portugal: example of needs and available tools

The Framework Directive (FWD) and the proposed Daughter Directives are the newest legislative instruments concerning a new political strategy and air quality management approach for Europe. Additionally, the member countries of the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe have included the concepts of critical load and level for planning air pollution abatement strategies and as a base of international agreements concerning limitation of the emissions of air pollutants. These concepts imply an accurate knowledge about pollutants deposition fluxes. The paper describes the main needs and the tools available to define a strategy of air quality management in Portugal. Two study cases are presented: (1) extensive monitoring plan to assess the impact of an urban incinerator plant; and (2) contribution to a methodology to estimate critical levels for a coastal region in Portugal. These different approaches allowed illustrating the complexity of the implementation of an air pollution management strategy.

Emission modelling of hazardous air pollutants from road transport at urban scale

Abstract This study is focused on the development of a modelling approach to quantify emissions of traffic-related hazardous air pollutants in urban areas considering complex road network and detailed data on transport activity. In this work a new version of the Transport Emission Model for line sources has been developed for hazardous pollutants (TREM-HAP). Emission factors for benzene, 1,3-butadiene, formaldehyde, acetaldehyde, acrolein, naphthalene and also particulate matter (PM2.5) were implemented and the model was extended to integrate a probabilistic approach for the uncertainty quantification using Monte-Carlo technique. The methodology has been applied to estimate road traffic emissions in Porto Urban Area, Portugal. Hourly traffic counts provided by an automatic counting system were used to characterise the spatial and temporal variability of the number of vehicles, vehicle categories and average speed at different road segments. The data for two summer and two winter months were processed to o...

Air quality assessment of Estarreja, an urban industrialized area, in a coastal region of Portugal

Despite the increasing concern given to air quality in urban and industrial areas in recent years, particular emphasis on regulation, control, and reduction of air pollutant emissions is still necessary to fully characterize the chain emissions–air quality–exposure–dose–health effects, for specific sources. The Estarreja region was selected as a case study because it has one of the largest chemical industrial complexes in Portugal that has been recently expanded, together with a growing urban area with an interesting location in the Portuguese coastland and crossed by important road traffic and rail national networks. This work presents the first air quality assessment for the region concerning pollutant emissions and meteorological and air quality monitoring data analysis, over the period 2000–2009. This assessment also includes a detailed investigation and characterization of past air pollution episodes for the most problematic pollutants: ozone and PM10. The contribution of different emission sources and meteorological conditions to these episodes is investigated. The stagnant meteorological conditions associated with local emissions, namely industrial activity and road traffic, are the major contributors to the air quality degradation over the study region. A set of measures to improve air quality—regarding ozone and PM10 levels—is proposed as an air quality management strategy for the study region.

Assessment of health benefits related to air quality improvement strategies in urban areas: An Impact Pathway Approach

Air pollution is, increasingly, a concern to our society given the threats to human health and the environment. Concerted actions to improve air quality have been taken at different levels, such as through the development of Air Quality Plans (AQPs). However, air quality impacts associated with the implementation of abatement measures included in AQPs are often neglected. In order to identify the major gaps and strengths in current knowledge, a literature review has been performed on existing methodologies to estimate air pollution-related health impacts and subsequent external costs. Based on this review, the Impact Pathway Approach was adopted and applied within the context of the MAPLIA research project to assess the health impacts and benefits (or avoided external costs) derived from improvements in air quality. Seven emission abatement scenarios, based on individual and combined abatement measures, were tested for the major activity sectors (traffic, residential and industrial combustion and production processes) of a Portuguese urban area (Grande Porto) with severe particular matter (PM10) air pollution problems. Results revealed a strong positive correlation between population density and health benefits obtained from the assessed reduction scenarios. As a consequence, potential health benefits from reduction scenarios are largest in densely populated areas with high anthropic activity and, thus, where air pollution problems are most alarming. Implementation of all measures resulted in a reduction in PM10 emissions by almost 8%, improving air quality by about 1% and contributing to a benefit of 8.8 million €/year for the entire study domain. The introduction of PM10 reduction technologies in industrial units was the most beneficial abatement measure. This study intends to contribute to policy support for decision-making on air quality management.

The role of transboundary air pollution over Galicia and North Portugal area

In summer, high levels of ozone (O3) are frequently measured at both Galicia and Northern Portugal air quality monitoring stations, even exceeding the limit values imposed by legislation. This work aims to investigate the origin of these high O3 concentrations by the application of a chemical transport modelling system over the northwestern area of the Iberian Peninsula. The WRF–CHIMERE modelling system was applied with high resolution to simulate the selected air pollution episodes that occurred simultaneously in Galicia and North Portugal and in order to study both the contribution of local emission sources and the influence of transboundary pollution. Emission inputs have been prepared based on the development of the Portuguese and Galician emission inventories. The obtained results for O3 have been evaluated and validated against observations. Modelling results show possible contribution of the transboundary transport over the border of two neighbour regions/countries, indicating that the O3 episode starts over the urban and industrialised area of North coast of Portugal, reaching the maximum peaks over this region; at the same time, O3 levels increased over Galicia region, where lower concentrations, but still high, were observed. These results pointed out that air quality management should not be driven by political boundaries and highlight the importance of joining efforts between neighbouring countries.

Ensemble Techniques to Improve Air Quality Assessment: Focus on O3 and PM

Five air quality models were applied over Portugal for July 2006 with an ensemble purpose. These models were used, with their own meteorology, parameterizations, boundary conditions and chemical mechanisms, but with the same emission data. The validation of the individual models and its ensemble for ozone (O3) and particulate matter was performed using monitoring data from 22 background stations over Portugal. After removing the bias from each model, different ensemble techniques were applied and compared. Besides the median, several weighted ensemble approaches were tested and intercompared: static (SLR) and dynamic (DLR) multiple linear regressions (using less-square optimization method) and the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) methodology. The goal of the comparison is to estimate to what extent the ensemble analysis is an improvement with respect to the single model results. The obtained results revealed that no one of the 4 tested ensembles clearly outperforms the others on the basis of statistical parameters and probabilistic analysis (reliability and resolution properties). Nevertheless, statistical results have shown that the application of the weights slightly improves ensemble performance when compared to those obtained from the median ensemble. The same statistical analysis together with the probabilistic measures demonstrates that the SLR and BMA methods are the best performers amongst the assessed methodologies.

Development of current and future pollutant emissions for Portugal

Abstract Air pollutant emissions are a fundamental input for accurate air quality simulations. Therefore, a detailed estimation of current emissions should be performed, mainly for the activity sectors that have higher contributions to emission totals. In order to estimate air quality under climate change at regional scale, it is extremely important to provide the most accurate emission inventories based on the emission scenarios used as input for the global climate models. The Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are the most recent developed emission scenarios. Emission inventories used in air quality simulations at regional scale for future periods should be based on these recent developments. In this sense, an Emission Projections under RCP scenarios (EmiPro–RCP) model was developed to assist the estimation of future emission inventories for GHG and common air pollutants. This paper describes the methodology developed under EmiPro–RCP model and presents the estimation of current and projected emissions for Portugal for CO, PM 2.5 , PM 10 , SO x , NO x , NMVOC and NH 3 , which will be used as input in air quality modeling systems. A comparison between the inventories was performed and the results indicated that all the RCPs scenarios predict a decrease in most of the air pollutant emissions until 2100, with the exception of NH 3 that increases. The main decreases are found in the coastal zone of Portugal, mainly in Porto and Lisbon urban areas, while the NH 3 increases are located not only in the coastal zone but also in the southern inland of Portugal.