C.C. Koopmans

Bridging the energy efficiency gap : using bottom-up information in a top-down energy demand model

Abstract Bottom-up modelers typically predict a lower energy demand and a higher energy efficiency than top-down modelers do, leading to the notion of the energy efficiency gap. This difference is often ‘explained’ by combining bottom-up information with unrealistically high discount rates. In this paper we combine the bottom-up and top-down approaches in an energy demand model. The model has a top-down structure, but we employ bottom-up information to estimate most of its parameters, using the discount rate that firms say they use. This new approach provides a partial reconciliation of top-down and bottom-up methods, which proves to be very useful for policy analysis.

Evaluating Transport Infrastructure Investments: The Dutch Experience with a Standardized Approach

Abstract The Dutch government introduced a requirement in 2000 to evaluate proposed major infrastructure plans using a cost–benefit analysis (CBA) following published guidelines. Since then 13 new major infrastructure projects have been evaluated. The paper reviews the Dutch standardized CBA practice since 2000. The overall conclusion is that the use of standardized CBA has improved the quality of ex‐ante evaluations of large infrastructure projects in the Netherlands. However, the relatively young CBA practice has not yet fulfilled its full potential. About half of the CBAs analysed can be considered as being suitable for helping decision‐making. The other half has weaknesses with respect to methods and assumptions. Looking at the standardized CBA’s influence on policy‐making, the most important conclusion is that unfavourable CBA results have contributed to the postponement of decisions and to the downsizing of projects.

Shopping at the labour market: A real tale of fiction

Abstract This paper presents results from a survey in which employers in the Netherlands reveal the way they select applicants. The survey uses descriptions of fictitious lower skilled job-seekers who do not have a job; the data are analyzed by means of logit models. The results show a strong preference for young, healthy, native (Dutch) men. Employers hardly care about qualities as education and experience, or even about the wage rate. Questions are raised about the cost-efficiency of the observed preferences.

Bread or games? A social cost-benefit analysis of the World Cup bid of the Netherlands and the winning Russian bid

Many countries compete fiercely for the right to host mega-events like the World Cup. Proponents of hosting mega-events claim that yields economic gains. Many available studies focus on partial effects of hosting or concern ex post analyses. The authors utilize the existing literature to perform a detailed cost–benefit analysis (CBA) of the Netherlands bidding jointly with Belgium for the 2018 World Cup. The authors show that national pride and pleasure come at a price and financial gains are unlikely. Based on this CBA, the authors predict that the costs of the 2018 World Cup in Russia will also exceed the financial benefits.

Estimation of Optimal Human Capital Accumulation Parameters for the Netherlands

Abstract Using the theory of optimal investments in human capital in general and Rosens (1975, 1976) version of it in particular we tried to model and explain aggregate life-cycle income-profiles for The Netherlands in 1965, 1972 and 1979. The model allowed us to estimate and impute human capital accumulation parameters and paths. Changes in rates of return, depreciation rates, the value of the human capital stock and of lifetime human wealth could be identified and compared for the sample years. It was found that, in terms of some of these parameters, public-sector employees gained compared with private-sector employees and employees with higher vocational training gained ground over university-trained employees.

Regulatory taxation of fossil fuels: Theory and policy

Abstract Research on energy taxation is often based on purely theoretical deductions. This paper stays closer to the real world, using empirical data and interpreting results in a political-economic setting of risk and uncertainty. Economic growth in developing countries will boost energy demand, increasing the risk of shortages of oil and natural gas half-way through the next century, and of coal towards the year 2100. Furthermore, there is mounting evidence that emissions of CO 2 trigger harmful climate changes. A timely introduction of regulatory taxes will reduce demand for fossil fuels and accelerate the introduction of sustainable technology. The empirical results presented show, moreover, that such taxes may claim a substantial part of the rent on energy extraction for the energy-importing countries. It is argued that optimal control and the avoidance of displacement effects require a tax affecting marginal use, with exceptions to safeguard competitive positions. Exceptions may be scaled down as the jurisdiction is enlarged.

Beleidseconomie: Een rationele onderbouwing van overheidsingrijpen

De aanleg van de Noord-Zuidlijn in Amsterdam was een foute beslissing. De beslissing over de aanbesteding van thuiszorg had volgens de Tweede Kamer niet de gewenste resultaten. Twee voorbeelden uit een lange reeks beleidsbeslissingen die beter hadden gekund. Het is onmogelijk om alle verkeerde beslissingen uit te bannen, maar het is wel mogelijk om beslissingen beter voor te bereiden. Beleidseconomie helpt bij het nemen van betere beslissingen, omdat ze de vraag beantwoordt wanneer ingrijpen nodig is om een publiek belang te borgen. Ook brengt ze de maatschappelijke kosten en baten in kaart, zodat alleen gekozen wordt voor beleid met een positief saldo voor de samenleving. De samenleving moet steeds opnieuw kiezen tussen wat aan de markt kan worden overgelaten en wat de overheid naar zich toe moet halen. Beleidseconomie is als een landmeter die de grens trekt tussen markt en overheid.

Direct Measurement of Hidden Labour

The hidden economy suddenly appeared in economic research in 1977, and has since attracted much attention from economists. The central problems are how to assess the scale and causes of this illicit phenomenon. Many different methods of measurement have been applied to different Western countries. Unfortunately these methods yield extremely different size estimates. They also appear to measure different things. This paper reviews the methods used and makes a strong case for direct methods. An example of a direct method used in the Netherlands is presented. The results are used to analyse the relation between hidden and regular activities.

The practice of valuing the environment in cost-benefit analyses in transport and spatial projects

Scientific debates on environmental impacts in cost-benefit analysis (CBA) focus on methodological questions. The literature, however, contains very little information on the influence of these debates on CBAs made in spatial planning practice. In this paper, this gap is filled by a qualitative analysis of 67 CBAs made in the Netherlands between 2000 and 2011. From the literature on environmental valuation, we derive criteria to evaluate the quality of CBA practice, such as completeness and the inclusion of uncertainties. The analysis shows that in many cases relevant environmental effects are omitted or not monetised. Moreover, non-monetised effects are often not included in CBA conclusions. If impacts are monetised, the methods used are frequently not very sophisticated. The consequences of assumptions are often not communicated, for example, where high discount rates make long-term effects seem unimportant. In this research we identify four main points for good practice.

Transport link scanner: simulating geographic transport network expansion through individual investments

AbstractThis paper introduces a GIS-based model that simulates the geographic expansion of transport networks by several decision-makers with varying objectives. The model progressively adds extensions to a growing network by choosing the most attractive investments from a limited choice set. Attractiveness is defined as a function of variables in which revenue and broader societal benefits may play a role and can be based on empirically underpinned parameters that may differ according to private or public interests. The choice set is selected from an exhaustive set of links and presumably contains those investment options that best meet private operator’s objectives by balancing the revenues of additional fare against construction costs. The investment options consist of geographically plausible routes with potential detours. These routes are generated using a fine-meshed regularly latticed network and shortest path finding methods. Additionally, two indicators of the geographic accuracy of the simulated networks are introduced. A historical case study is presented to demonstrate the model’s first results. These results show that the modelled networks reproduce relevant results of the historically built network with reasonable accuracy.n