C. Derksen

Variability and change in the Canadian cryosphere

During the International Polar Year (IPY), comprehensive observational research programs were undertaken to increase our understanding of the Canadian polar cryosphere response to a changing climate. Cryospheric components considered were snow, permafrost, sea ice, freshwater ice, glaciers and ice shelves. Enhancement of conventional observing systems and retrieval algorithms for satellite measurements facilitated development of a snapshot of current cryospheric conditions, providing a baseline against which future change can be assessed. Key findings include: 1. surface air temperatures across the Canadian Arctic exhibit a warming trend in all seasons over the past 40xa0years. A consistent pan-cryospheric response to these warming temperatures is evident through the analysis of multi-decadal datasets; 2. in recent years (including the IPY period) a higher rate of change was observed compared to previous decades including warming permafrost, reduction in snow cover extent and duration, reduction in summer sea ice extent, increased mass loss from glaciers, and thinning and break-up of the remaining Canadian ice shelves. These changes illustrate both a reduction in the spatial extent and mass of the cryosphere and an increase in the temporal persistence of melt related parameters. The observed changes in the cryosphere have important implications for human activity including the close ties of northerners to the land, access to northern regions for natural resource development, and the integrity of northern infrastructure.

Characterization of Northern Hemisphere Snow Water Equivalent Datasets, 1981–2010

AbstractFive, daily, gridded, Northern Hemisphere snow water equivalent (SWE) datasets are analyzed over the 1981–2010 period in order to quantify the spatial and temporal consistency of satellite retrievals, land surface assimilation systems, physical snow models, and reanalyses. While the climatologies of total Northern Hemisphere snow water mass (SWM) vary among the datasets by as much as 50%, their interannual variability and daily anomalies are comparable, showing moderate to good temporal correlations (between 0.60 and 0.85) on both interannual and intraseasonal time scales. Wintertime trends of total Northern Hemisphere SWM are consistently negative over the 1981–2010 period among the five datasets but vary in strength by a factor of 2–3. Examining spatial patterns of SWE indicates that the datasets are most consistent with one another over boreal forest regions compared to Arctic and alpine regions. Additionally, the datasets derived using relatively recent reanalyses are strongly correlated with ...

Merging Conventional (1915–92) and Passive Microwave (1978–2002) Estimates of Snow Extent and Water Equivalent over Central North America

Abstract A detailed evaluation of snow water equivalent (SWE) and snow cover extent (SCE) derived using the combined Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) and Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) brightness temperature records for the 1978–2002 period was carried out for a longitudinal transect in the continental interior of North America. Comparison with in situ SWE observations showed that the SMMR brightness temperature adjustments are required to produce SWE retrievals with similar bias and rmse as observed during the SSM/I period. Underestimation of SCE in the passive microwave dataset (relative to NOAA snow charts) was identified as a systematic problem, most pronounced in early winter and during seasons with above-average snow extent. The passive microwave data were successfully merged with historical data based on strong interdataset agreement for a 1978–92 overlap period. Analysis of SWE and SCE time series for the months of December through March 1915–2002 provided information on ...

Simulation of Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) Using Thermodynamic Snow Models in Québec, Canada

Abstract Snow cover plays a key role in the climate system by influencing the transfer of energy and mass between the soil and the atmosphere. In particular, snow water equivalent (SWE) is of primary importance for climatological and hydrological processes and is a good indicator of climate variability and change. Efforts to quantify SWE over land from spaceborne passive microwave measurements have been conducted since the 1980s, but a more suitable method has yet to be developed for hemispheric-scale studies. Tools such as snow thermodynamic models allow for a better understanding of the snow cover and can potentially significantly improve existing snow products at the regional scale. In this study, the use of three snow models [SNOWPACK, CROCUS, and Snow Thermal Model (SNTHERM)] driven by local and reanalysis meteorological data for the simulation of SWE is investigated temporally through three winter seasons and spatially over intensively sampled sites across northern Quebec. Results show that the SWE ...

Interpreting observed northern hemisphere snow trends with large ensembles of climate simulations

Simulated variability and trends in Northern Hemisphere seasonal snow cover are analyzed in large ensembles of climate integrations of the National Center for Atmospheric Research’s Community Earth System Model. Two 40-member ensembles driven by historical radiative forcings are generated, one coupled to a dynamical ocean and the other driven by observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the period 1981–2010. The simulations reproduce many aspects of the observed climatology and variability of snow cover extent as characterized by the NOAA snow chart climate data record. Major features of the simulated snow water equivalent (SWE) also agree with observations (GlobSnow Northern Hemisphere SWE data record), although with a lesser degree of fidelity. Ensemble spread in the climate response quantifies the impact of natural climate variability in the presence and absence of coupling to the ocean. Both coupled and uncoupled ensembles indicate an overall decrease in springtime snow cover that is consistent with observations, although springtime trends in most climate realizations are weaker than observed. In the coupled ensemble, a tendency towards excessive warming in wintertime leads to a strong wintertime snow cover loss that is not found in observations. The wintertime warming bias and snow cover reduction trends are reduced in the uncoupled ensemble with observed SSTs. Natural climate variability generates widely different regional patterns of snow trends across realizations; these patterns are related in an intuitive way to temperature, precipitation and circulation trends in individual realizations. In particular, regional snow loss over North America in individual realizations is strongly influenced by North Pacific SST trends (manifested as Pacific Decadal Oscillation variability) and by sea level pressure trends in the North Pacific/North Atlantic sectors.

Sensitivity of AMSR-E Brightness Temperatures to the Seasonal Evolution of Lake Ice Thickness

The sensitivity of brightness temperature (TB) at 6.9, 10.7, and 18.7 GHz from Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-Earth Observing System (AMSR-E) observations is investigated over five winter seasons (2002-2007) on Great Bear Lake and Great Slave Lake, Northwest Territories, Canada. The TB measurements are compared to ice thicknesses obtained with a previously validated thermodynamic lake ice model. Lake ice thickness is found to explain much of the increase of TB at 10.7 and 18.7 GHz. TB acquired at 18.7 GHz (V-pol) and 10.7 GHz (H-pol) shows the strongest relation with simulated lake ice thickness over the period of study (R2 > 0.90). A comparison of the seasonal evolution of TB for a cold winter (2003-2004) and a warm winter (2005-2006) reveals that the relationship between TB and ice growth is stronger in the cold winter (2003-2004). Overall, this letter shows the high sensitivity of TB to ice growth and, thus, the potential of AMSR-E mid-frequency channels to estimate ice thickness on large northern lakes.

Snow cover response to temperature in observational and climate model ensembles

The relationship between land surface temperature and snow cover extent trends is examined in three distinct types of ensembles over the 1981-2010 period: an observation-based ensemble, a representative selection of CMIP5 coupled climate model output, and two large initial condition coupled climate model ensembles. Observation-based estimates of snow cover sensitivity are stronger than simulated over midlatitude and alpine regions. Observed sensitivity estimates over Arctic regions are consistent with simulated values. Anomalous snow cover extend trends present in one dataset, the NOAA climate record, obscure the relationship to surface temperature seen in the rest of the analyzed data. The spread in modeled snow cover trends reflects roughly equal contributions from inter-model variability and from natural variability. Together, the anomalous relationship between surface temperature and snow cover expressed in the NOAA climate record and the large influence of natural variability present in the simulations highlight the importance of ensemble-based approaches.

Investigating the influence of variable freshwater ice types on passive and active microwave observations

Dual-polarized airborne passive microwave (PM) brightness temperatures (Tb) at 6.9 GHz H/V, 19 GHz H/V and 37 GHz H/V and spaceborne active microwave (AM) X-band (9.65 GHz VV, VH) backscatter (σ0) are observed coincident to in situ snow and lake-ice measurements collected over two lakes near Inuvik, Canada. Lake-ice thickness is found to be positively correlated with 19 GHz V emission (R = 0.67) and negatively with 19 GHz H emission (R = −0.79), indicating surface ice conditions influence microwave interaction. Lake ice types are delineated from TerraSAR-X synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images using the iterative region growing with semantics (IRGS) segmentation algorithm implemented in the MAGIC (MAp Guided Ice Classification) system. The spatial extent of derived ice type classes correspond well to in situ observations. The overall magnitude of emission at 19 GHz H and X-band VH σ0 increase with the scattering potential of associated ice types (grey/rafted ice). Transects of 6.9 GHz PM and 19 GHz PM exhibit positive relationships with VH σ0 over freshwater lake ice, with the greatest R coefficients at H-pol (R = 0.64, 0.46). Conversely, 6.9 GHz Tb and 19 GHz Tb exhibit negative R coefficients in regions of brackish water due to tubular bubble and brine inclusions in the ice. This study identifies congruency between PM and AM scattering mechanisms over lake ice for the purpose of identifying the influence of ice types on overall microwave interaction within the lake-ice system.