Lawrence Mudryk

Characterization of Northern Hemisphere Snow Water Equivalent Datasets, 1981–2010

AbstractFive, daily, gridded, Northern Hemisphere snow water equivalent (SWE) datasets are analyzed over the 1981–2010 period in order to quantify the spatial and temporal consistency of satellite retrievals, land surface assimilation systems, physical snow models, and reanalyses. While the climatologies of total Northern Hemisphere snow water mass (SWM) vary among the datasets by as much as 50%, their interannual variability and daily anomalies are comparable, showing moderate to good temporal correlations (between 0.60 and 0.85) on both interannual and intraseasonal time scales. Wintertime trends of total Northern Hemisphere SWM are consistently negative over the 1981–2010 period among the five datasets but vary in strength by a factor of 2–3. Examining spatial patterns of SWE indicates that the datasets are most consistent with one another over boreal forest regions compared to Arctic and alpine regions. Additionally, the datasets derived using relatively recent reanalyses are strongly correlated with ...

Resonance Overlap Is Responsible for Ejecting Planets in Binary Systems

A planet orbiting around a star in a binary system experiences both secular and resonant perturbations from the companion star. It may be dislodged from its host star if it is simultaneously affected by two or more resonances. We find that overlap between subresonances lying within mean-motion resonances (mostly of the j : 1 type) can account for the boundary of orbital stability within binary systems first observed in numerical studies (e.g., Holman & Wiegert). Strong secular forcing from the companion displaces the centroids of different subresonances, producing large regions of resonance overlap. Planets lying within these overlapping regions experience chaotic diffusion, which in most cases leads to their eventual ejection. The overlap region extends to shorter period orbits as either the companions mass or its eccentricity increase, with boundaries largely agreeing with those obtained by Holman & Wiegert. Furthermore, we find the following two results: First, at a given binary mass ratio, the instability boundary as a function of eccentricity appears jagged, with jutting peninsulas and deep inlets corresponding to islands of instability and stability, respectively; as a result, the largest stable orbit could be reduced from the Holman & Wiegert values by as much as 20%. Second, very high-order resonances (e.g., 50 : 3) do not significantly modify the instability boundary; these weak resonances, while producing slow chaotic diffusion that may be missed by finite-duration numerical integrations, do not contribute markedly to planet instability. We present some numerical evidence for the first result. More extensive experiments are called for to confirm these conclusions. For the special case of circular binaries, we are intrigued to find that the Hill criterion (based on the critical Jacobi integral) yields an instability boundary that is very similar to that obtained by resonance overlap arguments, making the former both a necessary and a sufficient condition for planet instability.

Constrained work output of the moist atmospheric heat engine in a warming climate

Because the rain falls and the wind blows Global warming is expected to intensify the hydrological cycle, but it might also make the atmosphere less energetic. Laliberté et al. modeled the atmosphere as a classical heat engine in order to evaluate how much energy it contains and how much work it can do (see the Perspective by Pauluis). They then used a global climate model to project how that might change as climate warms. Although the hydrological cycle may increase in intensity, it does so at the expense of its ability to do work, such as powering large-scale atmospheric circulation or fueling more very intense storms. Science, this issue p. 540; see also p. 475 A more intense hydrological cycle in a warmer world might make atmospheric circulation less energetic. [Also see Perspective by Pauluis] Incoming and outgoing solar radiation couple with heat exchange at Earth’s surface to drive weather patterns that redistribute heat and moisture around the globe, creating an atmospheric heat engine. Here, we investigate the engine’s work output using thermodynamic diagrams computed from reanalyzed observations and from a climate model simulation with anthropogenic forcing. We show that the work output is always less than that of an equivalent Carnot cycle and that it is constrained by the power necessary to maintain the hydrological cycle. In the climate simulation, the hydrological cycle increases more rapidly than the equivalent Carnot cycle. We conclude that the intensification of the hydrological cycle in warmer climates might limit the heat engine’s ability to generate work.

Interpreting observed northern hemisphere snow trends with large ensembles of climate simulations

Simulated variability and trends in Northern Hemisphere seasonal snow cover are analyzed in large ensembles of climate integrations of the National Center for Atmospheric Research’s Community Earth System Model. Two 40-member ensembles driven by historical radiative forcings are generated, one coupled to a dynamical ocean and the other driven by observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the period 1981–2010. The simulations reproduce many aspects of the observed climatology and variability of snow cover extent as characterized by the NOAA snow chart climate data record. Major features of the simulated snow water equivalent (SWE) also agree with observations (GlobSnow Northern Hemisphere SWE data record), although with a lesser degree of fidelity. Ensemble spread in the climate response quantifies the impact of natural climate variability in the presence and absence of coupling to the ocean. Both coupled and uncoupled ensembles indicate an overall decrease in springtime snow cover that is consistent with observations, although springtime trends in most climate realizations are weaker than observed. In the coupled ensemble, a tendency towards excessive warming in wintertime leads to a strong wintertime snow cover loss that is not found in observations. The wintertime warming bias and snow cover reduction trends are reduced in the uncoupled ensemble with observed SSTs. Natural climate variability generates widely different regional patterns of snow trends across realizations; these patterns are related in an intuitive way to temperature, precipitation and circulation trends in individual realizations. In particular, regional snow loss over North America in individual realizations is strongly influenced by North Pacific SST trends (manifested as Pacific Decadal Oscillation variability) and by sea level pressure trends in the North Pacific/North Atlantic sectors.

Large near-term projected snowpack loss over the western United States

Peak runoff in streams and rivers of the western United States is strongly influenced by melting of accumulated mountain snowpack. A significant decline in this resource has a direct connection to streamflow, with substantial economic and societal impacts. Observations and reanalyses indicate that between the 1980s and 2000s, there was a 10–20% loss in the annual maximum amount of water contained in the regions snowpack. Here we show that this loss is consistent with results from a large ensemble of climate simulations forced with natural and anthropogenic changes, but is inconsistent with simulations forced by natural changes alone. A further loss of up to 60% is projected within the next 30 years. Uncertainties in loss estimates depend on the size and the rate of response to continued anthropogenic forcing and the magnitude and phasing of internal decadal variability. The projected losses have serious implications for the hydropower, municipal and agricultural sectors in the region.

Snow cover response to temperature in observational and climate model ensembles

The relationship between land surface temperature and snow cover extent trends is examined in three distinct types of ensembles over the 1981-2010 period: an observation-based ensemble, a representative selection of CMIP5 coupled climate model output, and two large initial condition coupled climate model ensembles. Observation-based estimates of snow cover sensitivity are stronger than simulated over midlatitude and alpine regions. Observed sensitivity estimates over Arctic regions are consistent with simulated values. Anomalous snow cover extend trends present in one dataset, the NOAA climate record, obscure the relationship to surface temperature seen in the rest of the analyzed data. The spread in modeled snow cover trends reflects roughly equal contributions from inter-model variability and from natural variability. Together, the anomalous relationship between surface temperature and snow cover expressed in the NOAA climate record and the large influence of natural variability present in the simulations highlight the importance of ensemble-based approaches.

Representation of Snow in the Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System. Part I: Initialization

AbstractThe ability of the Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System (CanSIPS) to provide realistic forecast initial conditions for snow cover is assessed using in situ measurements and gridded snow analyses. Forecast initial conditions for snow in CanCM3 and CanCM4 employed by CanSIPS are determined by the response of the Canadian Land Surface Scheme (CLASS) used in both models to forcing from model atmospheric fields constrained by assimilation of 6-hourly reanalysis data. These snow initial conditions are found to be representative of the daily climatology of snow water equivalent (SWE) as well as interannual variations in maximum SWE and the timing of snow onset and snowmelt observed at eight in situ measurement sites located across Canada. The level of this agreement is similar to that of three independent gridded snow analyses (MERRA, the European Space Agency’s GlobSnow, and an offline forced version of CLASS). Total Northern Hemisphere snow mass generated by the CanSIPS initialization pro...

Quantifying the Uncertainty in Historical and Future Simulations of Northern Hemisphere Spring Snow Cover

AbstractProjections of twenty-first-century Northern Hemisphere (NH) spring snow cover extent (SCE) from two climate model ensembles are analyzed to characterize their uncertainty. Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) multimodel ensemble exhibits variability resulting from both model differences and internal climate variability, whereas spread generated from a Canadian Earth System Model–Large Ensemble (CanESM-LE) experiment is solely a result of internal variability. The analysis shows that simulated 1981–2010 spring SCE trends are slightly weaker than observed (using an ensemble of snow products). Spring SCE is projected to decrease by −3.7% ± 1.1% decade−1 within the CMIP5 ensemble over the twenty-first century. SCE loss is projected to accelerate for all spring months over the twenty-first century, with the exception of June (because most snow in this month has melted by the latter half of the twenty-first century). For 30-yr spring SCE trends over the twenty-first century, int...

Maintenance and Broadening of the Ocean’s Salinity Distribution by the Water Cycle

The global water cycle leaves an imprint on ocean salinity through evaporation and precipitation. It has been proposed that observed changes in salinity can be used to infer changes in the water cycle. Here salinity is characterized by the distribution of water masses in salinity coordinates. Only mixing and sources and sinks of freshwater and salt can modify this distribution. Mixing acts to collapse the distribution, making saline waters fresher and fresh waters more saline. Hence, in steady state, there must be net precipitation over fresh waters and net evaporation over saline waters. A simple model is developed to describe the relationship between the breadth of the distribution, the water cycle, and mixing—the latter being characterized by an e-folding time scale. In both observations and a state-of-the-art ocean model, the water cycle maintains a salinity distribution in steady state with a mixing time scale of the order of 50 yr. The same simple model predicts the response of the salinity distribution to a change in the water cycle. This study suggests that observations of changes in ocean salinity could be used to infer changes in the hydrological cycle.

RAPID: A fast, high resolution, flux-conservative algorithm designed for planet-disk interactions

Abstract We describe a newly developed hydrodynamic code for studying accretion disk processes. The numerical method uses a finite volume, non-linear, Total Variation Diminishing (TVD) scheme to capture shocks and control spurious oscillations. It is second-order accurate in time and space and makes use of a FARGO-type algorithm to alleviate Courant–Friedrichs–Lewy time step restrictions imposed by the rapidly rotating inner disk region. OpenMP directives are implemented enabling faster computations on shared-memory, multi-processor machines. The resulting code is simple, fast and memory efficient. We discuss the relevant details of the numerical method and provide results of the code’s performance on standard test problems. We also include a detailed examination of the code’s performance on planetary disk–planet interactions. We show that the results produced on the standard problem setup are consistent with a wide variety of other codes.