C. John McDermott

The Long-Run Behavior of Commodity Prices: Small Trends and Big Variability

Using the longest dataset publicly available (The Economists index of industrial commodity prices), we analyze the behavior of real commodity prices over the period 1862-1999 and have two main findings. First, while there has been a downward trend in real commodity prices of about 1 percent per year over the last 140 years, little support is found for a break in the long-run trend decline in commodity prices. Second, there is evidence of a ratcheting up in the variability of price movements. The amplitude of price movements increased in the early 1900s, while the frequency of large price movements increased after the collapse of the Bretton Woods regime of fixed exchange rates in the early 1970s. Although there is a down-ward trend in real commodity prices, this is of little practical policy relevance, since it is small and completely dominated by the variability of prices.

An Empirical Analysis of Fiscal Adjustments

This study uses the fiscal expansion and consolidation experiences of the industrial countries over the period 1970 to 1995 to examine the interplay between fiscal adjustments and economic performance. A key finding is that fiscal consolidation need not trigger an economic slowdown, especially over the medium term. Fiscal consolidation that concentrates on the expenditure side, especially transfers and government wages, is more likely to succeed in reducing the public debt ratio than tax-based consolidation. Also, the greater the magnitude of the fiscal consolidation, the more likely it is to succeed in reducing the debt ratio.

How Persistent Are Shocks to World Commodity Prices

This paper examines the persistence of shocks to world commodity prices, using monthly IMF data on primary commodities between 1957-98. We find that shocks to commodity prices are typically long-lasting and the variability of the persistence of price shocks is quite wide. The paper also discusses the implications of these findings for national and international schemes to stabilize earnings from commodity exports and finds that if price shocks are long-lived, then the cost of stabilization schemes will likely exceed any associated smoothing benefits.

Does the Gap Model Work in Asia

There is considerable evidence from industrial countries that the output gap is an important determinant of inflation. This paper examines whether the gap model also works in developing, newly industrializing, and industrial Asian economies. The output gaps are based on a nonparametric estimation procedure for trend output that does not require an arbitrary specification of the degree to which the data are smoothed. Simple versions of the gap model are tested in which the change in inflation is related to the output gap, as well as to the money supply. The paper concludes that the gap model works very well in almost all the Asian economies studied.

Nonlinear Econometric Models with Deterministically Trending Variables

This paper considers an alternative asymptotic framework to standard sequential asymptotics for nonlinear models with deterministically trending variables. The asymptotic distributions of generalized method of moments estimators and corresponding test statistics are derived using this framework. The asymptotic distributions are shown to be the same with deterministically trending variables as with non-trending variables. That is, the distributions are normal and chi-squared respectively. The asymptotic covariance matrices of the estimators, however, are found to depend on the form of the trends. These findings provide a justification for the use of standard asymptotic approximations in nonlinear models even when the variables have deterministic trends.

An Unbiased Appraisal of Purchasing Power Parity

Univariate studies of the hypothesis of unit roots in real exchange rates have yielded consensus point estimates of the half-life of deviations from purchasing power parity (PPP) of between three to five years (Rogoff, 1996). However, conventional least-squares-based estimates of half-lives are biased downward. Accordingly, as a preferred measure of the persistence of real exchange rate shocks we use median-unbiased estimators of the half-life of deviations from parity, which correct for the downward bias of conventional estimators. We study this issue using real effective exchange rate (REER) data for 20 industrial countries in the post-Bretton Woods period. The serial correlation-robust median-unbiased estimator yields a cross-country average of half-lives of deviations from parity of about eight years, with the REER of several countries displaying permanent deviations from parity. However, using the median-unbiased estimator that is robust to the moving average and heteroskedastic errors present in real exchange rate data reduces the estimated half-life of parity deviations. Using this unbiased estimator, we find that the majority of countries have finite point estimates of half-lives of parity deviation, which is supportive of PPP holding in the post-Bretton Woods period. We also find that the average bias-corrected half-life of parity deviations is about five years, which is consistent with (but at the upper end of) Rogoffs (1996) consensus estimate of the half-life of deviations from parity.

Fiscal Imbalances, Capital Inflows, and the Real Exchange Rate: The Case of Turkey

This paper examines the links between fiscal policy, capital inflows, and the real exchange rate in Turkey since the late 1980s. After an overview of recent macroeconomic developments in Turkey, a vector autoregression model is estimated linking government spending, interest rate differentials, capital inflows, and the temporary component of the real exchange rate. Positive shocks to government spending and capital inflows lead to an appreciation of the temporary component of the real exchange rate, whereas positive shocks to the uncovered interest rate differential lead to a capital inflow and an appreciation of the temporary component of the real exchange rate. The findings highlight the role of fiscal adjustment in restoring macroeconomic stability.

The Ups and Downs of New Zealand House Prices

This paper identifies the expansion and contraction phases of New Zealands national and regional house prices, by employing techniques typically used to study cycles in real activity, the so-called Classical cycle dating method. We then enquire into the nature of the cycles, addressing five questions: (1) What are the New Zealand and regional house price cycles, and do the regional cycles differ from the national cycle?; (2) What are the typical durations, magnitudes and shapes of these house price cycles?; (3) Do cycles in house prices match cycles in economic activity, at either national or regional levels?; (4) Does it matter which of the two main sets of house price series are used? i.e. Quotable Value New Zealand (QVNZ) or Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ)?; and (5) Does the sample period matter? Findings are evaluated in the context of work by Grimes, Aitken and Kerr (2004), and Hall and McDermott (2005). Avenues for further research are suggested.

'Riding on the Sheep's Back': Examining Australia's Dependence on Wool Exports

This paper extends the staple theory literature by examining the influence of wool, Australias dominant primary-product export, on the development of the Australian economy and external position over the period 1862-1995. The results support the view that while shocks to the wool industry had significant effects on the Australian economy and external position in the period 1862-1929, after the Second World War the wool industry no longer played a dominant role in the evolution of the Australian economy.

Consumption Smoothing and the Current Account: Evidence for France, 1970-94

This paper estimates a simple consumption-smoothing model of the French current account, and examines its capacity to predict recent developments in Frances external performance.