Viv Hall

Would adopting the us dollar have led to improved inflation, output and trade balances, for New Zealand in the 1990s?

Deterministic simulations with the Reserve Bank of New Zealands core FPS model show how New Zealands broad macroeconomic environment might have evolved over the 1990s, if a US nominal yield curve and US TWI exchange rate movements under a common currency arrangement had been experienced. Relatively looser monetary conditions would have prevailed, and led to modest short-run output gains, greater excess demand pressures, noticeably higher CPI inflation rates over the whole of the 1990s, and less favourable trade balance outcomes, especially for the late 1990s. These macroeconomic outcomes are overall less favourable than those obtained from simulating the equivalent Australian monetary conditions.

Regional business cycles in New Zealand: Do they exist? What might drive them?*

We use National Bank of New Zealand Regional Economic Activity data, to identify and characterise classical business cycle turning points, for New ZealandÂ’s 14 regions and aggregate New Zealand activity. Using Concordance statistic measures, logistic model and GMM estimation methods, meaningful regional business cycles have been identified and a number of significant associations established. All regions exhibit cyclical asymmetry for both durations and amplitudes, and synchronisations between aggregate NZ activity and each region are contemporaneous. The regional cycles rarely die of old age but are terminated by particular events. The regions most highly synchronised with the NZ activity cycle are Auckland, Canterbury, and Nelson-Marlborough; those least so are Gisborne and Southland. Noticeably strong co-movements are evident for certain regions. Geographical proximity matters, and unusually dry conditions can be associated with cyclical downturns in certain regions. There is no discernable evidence of association with net immigration movements, and no significant evidence of regional cycle movements being associated with real house price cycles. The agriculture-based nature of the New Zealand economy is highlighted by the strong influence of external economic shocks on rural economic performance. In particular, there is considerable evidence of certain regional cycles being associated with movements in New ZealandÂ’s aggregate terms of trade, real prices of milksolids, real dairy land prices and total rural land prices. JEL Classification: C22, E32, R11, R12, R15 Keywords: Classical business cycle; Turning Points; Regional business cycles; Concordance statistics; New Zealand

The Ups and Downs of New Zealand House Prices

This paper identifies the expansion and contraction phases of New Zealands national and regional house prices, by employing techniques typically used to study cycles in real activity, the so-called Classical cycle dating method. We then enquire into the nature of the cycles, addressing five questions: (1) What are the New Zealand and regional house price cycles, and do the regional cycles differ from the national cycle?; (2) What are the typical durations, magnitudes and shapes of these house price cycles?; (3) Do cycles in house prices match cycles in economic activity, at either national or regional levels?; (4) Does it matter which of the two main sets of house price series are used? i.e. Quotable Value New Zealand (QVNZ) or Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ)?; and (5) Does the sample period matter? Findings are evaluated in the context of work by Grimes, Aitken and Kerr (2004), and Hall and McDermott (2005). Avenues for further research are suggested.

Major OECD Country Industrial Sector Interfuel Substitution Estimates: 1960-79

Determination, from the annual observations on the period 1960-79, elasticity of the request of a combustible in comparison with his price and in comparison with the prices of the combustible others in seven countries of the OECD.

A Quarterly Post-World War II Real GDP Series for New Zealand

There are no official quarterly real GDP estimates for New Zealand for the period prior to 1977. We develop a seasonally adjusted series for 1947q2 to 2006q2, by linking quarterly observations from two recent official series to temporally disaggregated observations for an earlier time period. Annual real GDP series are disaggregated, using the information from two quarterly diffusion indexes, developed by Haywood and Campbell (1976). Three econometric models are used: the Chow and Lin (1971) model that disaggregates the level of GDP, and the Fernandez (1981) and Litterman (1983) models that disaggregate changes in GDP. Statistical properties of the series are evaluated, and movements in the new series are benchmarked against qualitative research findings from New Zealands post-WWII economic history. Our preferred quarterly series is based on results generated from the Chow-Lin model.

Pacific Rim Business Cycle Analysis: Synchronisation and Volatility

This paper examines sychronisation and volatility of the business cycles of Pacific Rim countries which are closely linked by trade. Close synchronisation is evident amongst groups of countries, but it is difficult to establish meaningful cycle synchronisation between countries outside these groups. For instance, the cycles of New Zealand and Australia are closely synchronised with the USA cycle rather than with Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore and Taiwan, or with Japan. Average cycle volatility varies markedly across countries, from the lower volatility countries of Japan, USA and Australia, through to the high volatility economies of Hong Kong, Korea, and Singapore. But cycle volatility has also changed markedly over time, and the pattern of change is typically similar between countries that can be grouped in terms of cycle synchronisation. For example, the pattern for New Zealand has resembled the paths evident for USA and Australia. Similarly, Korea, Hong Kong, Singapore and Taiwan have experienced a relatively common pattern of change in volatility, which differs from that for USA, Australia and New Zealand.

The New Zealand Business Cycle

Our paper is in the spirit of Rex Bergstroms interests and research in cyclical growth models and his meticulous attention to underlying data series. We develop a new quarterly real GDP series for post–World War II New Zealand, derive a new “benchmark” set of classical business cycle turning points, and establish nonparametric classical cycle characteristics. Markov-switching models, estimated by Gibbs-sampling methods, are used to derive mean growth rate and volatility regimes and to add to existing knowledge. The resulting properties, involving cycle asymmetries, volatility, diversity and duration dependence, and differing mean growth rate and volatility regimes, can be used to underpin a next generation of cyclical growth models for New Zealand, in the Bergstrom tradition.

Would adopting the Australian dollar provide superior monetary policy in New Zealand

Counterfactual experiments with the Reserve Bank of New Zealands core model provide some insight into the implications for New Zealands economic performance over the 1990s, had it credibly fixed its currency to the Australian dollar. If New Zealand had faced the relatively more stimulatory Australian monetary conditions prevailing over the 1990s, then output growth may have been temporarily boosted. However, demand pressures would have probably been greater and inflation higher. In particular, results suggest that over the latter part of the 1990s annual inflation would have been around 1 percentage point higher on average. Stochastic simulation experiments provide a vehicle to analyse what the implications of currency union might be more generally. Results suggest that if New Zealand were to lose its ability to set monetary policy independently, then the variability of inflation and output would increase over the business cycle.

Dating New Zealand Business Cycles

Dating the turning points and durations of business cycles has long been associated with NBER-type reference cycle indexes. More recently, such work has become additionally important for evaluating modern theoretical business cycle models and for analysing the time-varying characteristics of cycles. This paper applies the transparent, quick-to-compute Bry and Boschan business cycle dating procedure to four New Zealand real GDP series. It compares the resulting turning points with those previously identified using NBER-type cycle identification techniques, and with those obtained from three relatively mechanistic “deviations-from-trend” methods. It provides some empirical benchmark turning point and cycle duration characteristics and, as a prelude to further theoretical and empirical work, compares these with results obtained from a number of potentially relevant AR(1) and I(1) statistical processes.

Industrial Sector Interfuel Substitution Following the First Major Oil Shock

Strict conditions for a two-stage translog expenditure shares model are violated. A single- stage homothetic symmetry/equality model is rejected in favour of a non-homothetic equality model. International own-price elasticities derived from the latter for oil, gas, coal and electricity are -0.26, -0.81, -0.97 and -0.02, little changed from -0.24, -0.71, -1.35 and -0.09 for the former.