C. M. Steele

Spatially Explicit Representation of State-and-Transition Models

Abstract The broad-scale assessment of natural resource conditions (e.g., rangeland health, restoration needs) requires knowledge of their spatial distribution. We argue that creating a database that links state-and-transition models (STMs) to spatial units is a valuable management tool for structuring ground-based observations, management planning for landscapes, and for housing information on the responses of land areas to management actions. To address this need, we introduce a multifactor classification system based on ecological sites and STMs that is directly linked to recent concepts of vegetation dynamics in rangelands. We describe how this classification was used as a basis for creating a spatial database and maps of ecological states. We provide an example of how the classification and mapping has been applied in over 1.2 million ha of public rangelands in southern New Mexico using aerial photo interpretation supplemented with existing inventory data and rapid field assessments. The resulting state map has been used by the Bureau of Land Management: 1) to design landscape-level shrub control efforts, 2) to structure and report district-wide rangeland health assessments, and 3) to evaluate locations for energy development. We conclude by discussing options for the development of state maps and their current limitations, including the use of satellite imagery and concepts for defining states. We argue that cataloging ecological states in a spatial context has clear benefits for rangeland managers because it connects STM concepts to specific land areas. State mapping provides a means to generate and store spatially explicit data resulting from tests of the propositions in STMs and conservation practices.

Vegetation Index Differencing for Broad-Scale Assessment of Productivity Under Prolonged Drought and Sequential High Rainfall Conditions

Spatially-explicit depictions of plant productivity over large areas are critical to monitoring landscapes in highly heterogeneous arid ecosystems. Applying radiometric change detection techniques we sought to determine whether: (1) differences between pre- and post-growing season spectral vegetation index values effectively identify areas of significant change in vegetation; and (2) areas of significant change coincide with altered ecological states. We differenced NDVI values, standardized difference values to Z-scores to identify areas of significant increase and decrease in NDVI, and examined the ecological states associated with these areas. The vegetation index differencing method and translation of growing season NDVI to Z-scores permit examination of change over large areas and can be applied by non-experts. This method identified areas with potential for vegetation/ecological state transition and serves to guide field reconnaissance efforts that may ultimately inform land management decisions for millions of acres of federal lands.

Cascading impacts of climate change on southwestern US cropland agriculture

The interior southwest United States is one of the hottest, driest regions on the planet, yet irrigated cropland agriculture is successfully practiced where there is access to surface water and/or groundwater. Through climate change, the southwest is projected to become even hotter and drier, increasing the challenges faced by farmers across the region. We can assess the vulnerability of cropland agriculture, to assist in developing potential solutions to these challenges of warming temperatures and water scarcity. However, these types of biophysical vulnerability assessment usually generate technological or policy-level solutions that do not necessarily account for farmers’ ability to respond to climate change impacts. Further, there are non-climatic factors that also threaten the future of agriculture in the region, such as population increase, loss of agricultural land, and increasing competition for depleting water resources. In this paper, we assert that to fully address how southwestern farmers may respond to climate change impacts, we must consider both biophysical outcome and contextual vulnerabilities. Future research on individual localities and/or specific commodities and including cross-disciplinary analysis of socio-economic, institutional, cultural, and political factors alongside biophysical factors will help to develop more substantive understanding of system vulnerabilities and feasible adaptive solutions.