Emile Elias

The Land‐Potential Knowledge System (LandPKS): mobile apps and collaboration for optimizing climate change investments

Abstract Massive investments in climate change mitigation and adaptation are projected during coming decades. Many of these investments will seek to modify how land is managed. The return on both types of investments can be increased through an understanding of land potential: the potential of the land to support primary production and ecosystem services, and its resilience. A Land‐Potential Knowledge System (LandPKS) is being developed and implemented to provide individual users with point‐based estimates of land potential based on the integration of simple, geo‐tagged user inputs with cloud‐based information and knowledge. This system will rely on mobile phones for knowledge and information exchange, and use cloud computing to integrate, interpret, and access relevant knowledge and information, including local knowledge about land with similar potential. The system will initially provide management options based on long‐term land potential, which depends on climate, topography, and relatively static soil properties, such as soil texture, depth, and mineralogy. Future modules will provide more specific management information based on the status of relatively dynamic soil properties such as organic matter and nutrient content, and of weather. The paper includes a discussion of how this system can be used to help distinguish between meteorological and edaphic drought.

Vulnerability of California specialty crops to projected mid-century temperature changes

Increasing global temperatures are likely to have major impacts on agriculture, but the effects will vary by crop and location. This paper describes the temperature sensitivity and exposure of selected specialty crops in California. We used literature synthesis to create several sensitivity indices (from 1 to 4) to changes in winter minimum and summer maximum temperature for the top 14 specialty crops. To estimate exposure, we used seasonal period change analysis of mid-century minimum and maximum temperature changes downscaled to county level from CMIP5 models. We described crop vulnerability on a county basis as (crop sensitivity index × county climate exposure × area of crop in county); individual crop vulnerabilities were combined to create an aggregate index of specialty crop vulnerability by county. We also conducted analyses scaled by crop value rather than area, and normalized to total specialty crop area in each county. Our analyses yielded a spatial assessment highlighting seasons and counties of highest vulnerability. Winter and summer vulnerability are correlated, but not highly so. High-producing counties (e.g., Fresno County in the San Joaquin Valley) are the most vulnerable in absolute terms, while northern Sacramento Valley counties are the most vulnerable in relative terms, due to their reliance on heat-sensitive perennial crops. Our results illustrate the importance of examining crop vulnerability from different angles. More physiological and economic research is needed to build a comprehensive picture of specialty crop vulnerability to climate change.

Cascading impacts of climate change on southwestern US cropland agriculture

The interior southwest United States is one of the hottest, driest regions on the planet, yet irrigated cropland agriculture is successfully practiced where there is access to surface water and/or groundwater. Through climate change, the southwest is projected to become even hotter and drier, increasing the challenges faced by farmers across the region. We can assess the vulnerability of cropland agriculture, to assist in developing potential solutions to these challenges of warming temperatures and water scarcity. However, these types of biophysical vulnerability assessment usually generate technological or policy-level solutions that do not necessarily account for farmers’ ability to respond to climate change impacts. Further, there are non-climatic factors that also threaten the future of agriculture in the region, such as population increase, loss of agricultural land, and increasing competition for depleting water resources. In this paper, we assert that to fully address how southwestern farmers may respond to climate change impacts, we must consider both biophysical outcome and contextual vulnerabilities. Future research on individual localities and/or specific commodities and including cross-disciplinary analysis of socio-economic, institutional, cultural, and political factors alongside biophysical factors will help to develop more substantive understanding of system vulnerabilities and feasible adaptive solutions.

Diverse landscapes, diverse risks: synthesis of the special issue on climate change and adaptive capacity in a hotter, drier Southwestern United States

Assessing regional-scale vulnerability of agricultural systems to climate change and variability is vital in securing food and fiber systems, as well as sustaining rural livelihoods. Farmers, ranchers, and forest landowners rely on science-based, decision-relevant, and localized information to maintain production, ecological viability, and economic returns. This paper synthesizes the collection of research on the future of agricultural production in the Southwestern United States. A variety of assessment methods indicate the diverse impacts and risks across the Southwest, often related to water availability, which drives adaptive measures in this region. Sector- or species-specific adaptive measures have long been practiced in this region and will continue to be necessary to support agricultural production as a regional enterprise. Diversification of crop selection and income source imparts climate resilience. Building upon biophysical vulnerability through incorporating social and economic factors is critical to future adaptation planning efforts. The persistence and adaptive capacity of agriculture in the water-limited Southwest serves as an instructive example for producers outside the region expecting drier and warmer conditions and may offer solutions to reduce future climate impacts.

An Integrated View of Complex Landscapes: A Big Data-Model Integration Approach to Transdisciplinary Science

The Earth is a complex system comprising many interacting spatial and temporal scales. We developed a transdisciplinary data-model integration (TDMI) approach to understand, predict, and manage for these complex dynamics that focuses on spatiotemporal modeling and cross-scale interactions. Our approach employs human-centered machine-learning strategies supported by a data science integration system (DSIS). Applied to ecological problems, our approach integrates knowledge and data on (a) biological processes, (b) spatial heterogeneity in the land surface template, and (c) variability in environmental drivers using data and knowledge drawn from multiple lines of evidence (i.e., observations, experimental manipulations, analytical and numerical models, products from imagery, conceptual model reasoning, and theory). We apply this transdisciplinary approach to a suite of increasingly complex ecologically relevant problems and then discuss how information management systems will need to evolve into DSIS to allow other transdisciplinary questions to be addressed in the future.

Coping With Historic Drought in California Rangelands: Developing a More Effective Institutional Response

On the Ground Drought response is widely varied depending on both the characteristics of the drought and the ability of individual ranchers to respond. Assistance from institutions during drought has not typically considered preemptive, during, and post-drought response as a strategic approach, which recognizes biophysical, sociological, and economic complexities of drought. A USDA Southwest Climate Hub-sponsored workshop brought together a range of representatives from public and private institutions with drought response responsibilities to examine how those institutions could better support drought decision-making. Institutions can greatly improve their support for individual land managers by doing more systematic collecting and organizing of drought-related information as a basis for programs, and by collaborating to enhance both institutional and individual learning.