C. R. Maupin

A reconstruction of sea surface temperature variability in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico from 1734 to 2008 C.E. using cross-dated Sr/Ca records from the coral Siderastrea siderea

This study uses skeletal variations in coral Sr/Ca from three Siderastrea siderea coral colonies within the Dry Tortugas National Park in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico (24°42′N, 82°48′W) to reconstruct monthly sea surface temperature (SST) variations from 1734 to 2008 Common Era (C.E.). Calibration and verification of the replicated coral Sr/Ca-SST reconstruction with local, regional, and historical temperature records reveals that this proxy-temperature relationship is stable back to 1879 C.E. The coral SST reconstruction contains robust interannual (~2.0°C) and multidecadal variability (~1.5°C) for the past 274 years, the latter of which does not covary with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Winter SST extremes are more variable than summer SST extremes (±2.2°C versus ±1.6°C, 2σ) suggesting that Loop Current transport in the winter dominates variability on interannual and longer time scales. Summer SST maxima are increasing (+1.0°C for 274 years, σMC = ±0.5°C, 2σ), whereas winter SST minima contain no significant trend. Colder decades (~1.5°C) during the Little Ice Age (LIA) do not coincide with decades of sunspot minima. The coral SST reconstruction contains similar variability to temperature reconstructions from the northern Gulf of Mexico (planktic foraminifer Mg/Ca) and the Caribbean Sea (coral Sr/Ca) suggesting areal reductions in the Western Hemisphere Warm Pool during the LIA. Mean summer coral SST extremes post-1985 C.E. (29.9°C) exceeds the long-term summer average (29.2°C for 1734–2008 C.E.), yet the warming trend after 1985 C.E. (0.04°C for 24 years, σMC = ±0.5, 2σ) is not significant, whereas Caribbean coral Sr/Ca studies contain a warming trend for this interval.

Multidecadal rainfall variability in South Pacific Convergence Zone as revealed by stalagmite geochemistry

Pacifi c decadal variability (PDV) causes widespread, persistent fl uctuations that affect climate, water resources, and fi sheries throughout the Pacifi c basin, yet the magnitude, frequency, and causes of PDV remain poorly constrained. Here we present an absolutely dated, subannually resolved, 446 yr stable oxygen isotope (δ 18 O) cave record of rainfall variability in Vanuatu (southern Pacifi c Ocean), a location that has a climate heavily infl uenced by the South Pacifi c Convergence Zone (SPCZ). The δ 18 O-based proxy rainfall record is dominated by changes in stalagmite δ 18 O that are large (~1‰), quasi-periodic (~50 yr period), and generally abrupt (within 5‐10 yr). These isotopic changes imply abrupt rainfall changes of as much as ~1.8 m per wet season, changes that can be ~2.5◊ larger than the 1976 C.E. shift in rainfall amount associated with a PDV phase switch. The Vanuatu record also shares little commonality with previously documented changes in the Intertropical Convergence Zone during the Little Ice Age or solar forcing. We conclude that multidecadal SPCZ variability is likely of an endogenous nature. Large, spontaneous, and low-frequency changes in SPCZ rainfall during the past 500 yr have important implications for the relative magnitude of natural PDV possible in the coming century.