Judson W. Partin

Millennial-scale trends in west Pacific warm pool hydrology since the Last Glacial Maximum

Models and palaeoclimate data suggest that the tropical Pacific climate system plays a key part in the mechanisms underlying orbital-scale and abrupt climate change. Atmospheric convection over the western tropical Pacific is a major source of heat and moisture to extratropical regions, and may therefore influence the global climate response to a variety of forcing factors. The response of tropical Pacific convection to changes in global climate boundary conditions, abrupt climate changes and radiative forcing remains uncertain, however. Here we present three absolutely dated oxygen isotope records from stalagmites in northern Borneo that reflect changes in west Pacific warm pool hydrology over the past 27,000 years. Our results suggest that convection over the western tropical Pacific weakened 18,000–20,000 years ago, as tropical Pacific and Antarctic temperatures began to rise during the early stages of deglaciation. Convective activity, as inferred from oxygen isotopes, reached a minimum during Heinrich event 1 (ref. 10), when the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation was weak, pointing to feedbacks between the strength of the overturning circulation and tropical Pacific hydrology. There is no evidence of the Younger Dryas event in the stalagmite records, however, suggesting that different mechanisms operated during these two abrupt deglacial climate events. During the Holocene epoch, convective activity appears to track changes in spring and autumn insolation, highlighting the sensitivity of tropical Pacific convection to external radiative forcing. Together, these findings demonstrate that the tropical Pacific hydrological cycle is sensitive to high-latitude climate processes in both hemispheres, as well as to external radiative forcing, and that it may have a central role in abrupt climate change events.

Transformation of ENSO‐related rainwater to dripwater δ18O variability by vadose water mixing

Speleothem oxygen isotopes (δ18O) are often used to reconstruct past rainfall δ18O variability, and thereby hydroclimate changes, in many regions of the world. However, poor constraints on the karst hydrological processes that transform rainfall signals into cave dripwater add significant uncertainty to interpretations of speleothem-based reconstructions. Here we present several 6.5 year, biweekly dripwater δ18O time series from northern Borneo and compare them to local rainfall δ18O variability. We demonstrate that vadose water mixing is the primary rainfall-to-dripwater transformation process at our site, where dripwater δ18O reflects amount-weighted rainfall δ18O integrated over the previous 3–10 months. We document large interannual dripwater δ18O variability related to the El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), with amplitudes inversely correlated to dripwater residence times. According to a simple stalagmite forward model, asymmetrical ENSO extremes produce significant offsets in stalagmite δ18O time series given different dripwater residence times. Our study highlights the utility of generating multiyear, paired time series of rainfall and dripwater δ18O to aid interpretations of stalagmite δ18O reconstructions.

Testing the annual nature of speleothem banding

Speleothem laminae have been postulated to form annually, and this lamina-chronology is widely applied to high-resolution modern and past climate reconstructions. However, this argument has not been directly supported by high resolution dating methods. Here we present contemporary single-lamina 230Th dating techniques with 2σ precision as good as ±0.5 yr on a laminated stalagmite with density couplets from Xianren Cave, China, that covers the last 300 years. We find that the layers do not always deposit annually. Annual bands can be under- or over-counted by several years during different multi-decadal intervals. The irregular formation of missing and false bands in this example indicates that the assumption of annual speleothem laminae in a climate reconstruction should be approached carefully without a robust absolute-dated chronology.

Multidecadal rainfall variability in South Pacific Convergence Zone as revealed by stalagmite geochemistry

Pacifi c decadal variability (PDV) causes widespread, persistent fl uctuations that affect climate, water resources, and fi sheries throughout the Pacifi c basin, yet the magnitude, frequency, and causes of PDV remain poorly constrained. Here we present an absolutely dated, subannually resolved, 446 yr stable oxygen isotope (δ 18 O) cave record of rainfall variability in Vanuatu (southern Pacifi c Ocean), a location that has a climate heavily infl uenced by the South Pacifi c Convergence Zone (SPCZ). The δ 18 O-based proxy rainfall record is dominated by changes in stalagmite δ 18 O that are large (~1‰), quasi-periodic (~50 yr period), and generally abrupt (within 5‐10 yr). These isotopic changes imply abrupt rainfall changes of as much as ~1.8 m per wet season, changes that can be ~2.5◊ larger than the 1976 C.E. shift in rainfall amount associated with a PDV phase switch. The Vanuatu record also shares little commonality with previously documented changes in the Intertropical Convergence Zone during the Little Ice Age or solar forcing. We conclude that multidecadal SPCZ variability is likely of an endogenous nature. Large, spontaneous, and low-frequency changes in SPCZ rainfall during the past 500 yr have important implications for the relative magnitude of natural PDV possible in the coming century.

A coral‐based reconstruction of sea surface salinity at Sabine Bank, Vanuatu from 1842 to 2007 CE

Climate variability associated with the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) results in large sea-surface temperature (SST) and sea-surface salinity (SSS) anomalies in many regions of the tropical Pacific Ocean. We investigate interannual changes in SSS driven by ENSO in the southwestern Pacific at Sabine Bank, Vanuatu (SBV, 166.04°E, 15.94°S) using monthly variations in coralδ18O from 1842 to 2007 CE. We develop and apply a coral δ18O-SSS transfer function, which is assessed using a calibration-verification exercise (1970-2007 CE). The 165-year reconstructed SSS record contains a prominent trend toward freshening from 1842 to 2007 CE; mean SSS for 1842-1872 CE is 35.46 ± 0.28 psu, which contrasts with a mean value of 34.85 ± 0.31 psu for 1977-2007 CE, with a freshening trend during the latter part of the 20th century that is not unprecedented with respect to the overall record. Variance in the record is concentrated in the interannual (42%) and interdecadal (29%) bands. The SBV-SSS record matches well with a similarly reconstructed SSS time series at Malo Channel, Vanuatu, which is located ∼120 km to the east of SBV. This regional signal is likely driven by ENSO-related changes in the SPCZ and interdecadal changes in surface water advection. The pattern of interdecadal variability at SBV agrees reasonably well with coral records of interdecadal variability from Fiji and Tonga, especially in the pre-1940 portions of the records, further evidence for the regional extent of the salinity signal at Sabine Bank, Vanuatu.

Gradual onset and recovery of the Younger Dryas abrupt climate event in the tropics

Proxy records of temperature from the Atlantic clearly show that the Younger Dryas was an abrupt climate change event during the last deglaciation, but records of hydroclimate are underutilized in defining the event. Here we combine a new hydroclimate record from Palawan, Philippines, in the tropical Pacific, with previously published records to highlight a difference between hydroclimate and temperature responses to the Younger Dryas. Although the onset and termination are synchronous across the records, tropical hydroclimate changes are more gradual (>100 years) than the abrupt (10–100 years) temperature changes in the northern Atlantic Ocean. The abrupt recovery of Greenland temperatures likely reflects changes in regional sea ice extent. Proxy data and transient climate model simulations support the hypothesis that freshwater forced a reduction in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, thereby causing the Younger Dryas. However, changes in ocean overturning may not produce the same effects globally as in Greenland.

Pronounced centennial-scale Atlantic Ocean climate variability correlated with Western Hemisphere hydroclimate

Surface-ocean circulation in the northern Atlantic Ocean influences Northern Hemisphere climate. Century-scale circulation variability in the Atlantic Ocean, however, is poorly constrained due to insufficiently-resolved paleoceanographic records. Here we present a replicated reconstruction of sea-surface temperature and salinity from a site sensitive to North Atlantic circulation in the Gulf of Mexico which reveals pronounced centennial-scale variability over the late Holocene. We find significant correlations on these timescales between salinity changes in the Atlantic, a diagnostic parameter of circulation, and widespread precipitation anomalies using three approaches: multiproxy synthesis, observational datasets, and a transient simulation. Our results demonstrate links between centennial changes in northern Atlantic surface-circulation and hydroclimate changes in the adjacent continents over the late Holocene. Notably, our findings reveal that weakened surface-circulation in the Atlantic Ocean was concomitant with well-documented rainfall anomalies in the Western Hemisphere during the Little Ice Age.Knowledge of surface-ocean circulation in the Atlantic over the late Holocene is incomplete. Here, the authors show that Atlantic Ocean surface-circulation varied in concert with Western Hemisphere rainfall anomalies on centennial timescales and that this link played an essential role during the Little Ice Age.

Trade winds drive pronounced seasonality in carbonate chemistry in a tropical Western Pacific island cave—Implications for speleothem paleoclimatology

Carbon dioxide concentrations in caves are a primary driver of rates of carbonate dissolution and precipitation, exerting strong control on speleothem growth rate and geochemistry. Long-term cave monitoring studies in mid-latitude caves have observed seasonal variability in cave pCO2, whereby airflow is driven by temperature contrasts between the surface and subsurface. In tropical settings, where diurnal temperature cycles are larger than seasonal temperature cycles, it is has been proposed caves will ventilate on daily timescales, preventing cave pCO2 from increasing substantially above atmospheric pCO2. By contrast, the relatively small temperature difference between the surface and subsurface may be insufficient to drive complete ventilation of tropical caves. Here we present results of an 8-year cave monitoring study, including observations of cave pCO2 and carbonate chemistry, at Jinapsan Cave, Guam (13.4°N, 144.5°E). We find that cave pCO2 in Jinapsan Cave is both relatively high and strongly seasonal, with cave pCO2 ranging from 500 - 5000 ppm. The seasonality of cave pCO2 cannot be explained by temperature contrasts, instead we find evidence that seasonal trade winds drive cave ventilation and modulate cave pCO2. Calcite deposition rates at seven drip sites in Jinapsan Cave are shown to be seasonally variable, demonstrating that speleothem growth rates in Jinapsan Cave are strongly affected by seasonal variations in cave pCO2. These results highlight the importance that advection can have on cave ventilation processes and carbonate chemistry. Seasonality in carbonate chemistry and calcite deposition in this cave effect the interpretation of speleothem-based paleoclimate records. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.