C. W. King

The NAME 2004 Field Campaign and Modeling Strategy

The North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME) is an internationally coordinated process study aimed at determining the sources and limits of predictability of warm-season precipitation over North America. The scientific objectives of NAME are to promote a better understanding and more realistic simulation of warm-season convective processes in complex terrain, intraseasonal variability of the monsoon, and the response of the warm-season atmospheric circulation and precipitation patterns to slowly varying, potentially predictable surface boundary conditions. During the summer of 2004, the NAME community implemented an international (United States, Mexico, Central America), multiagency (NOAA, NASA, NSF, USDA) field experiment called NAME 2004. This article presents early results from the NAME 2004 campaign and describes how the NAME modeling community will leverage the NAME 2004 data to accelerate improvements in warm-season precipitation forecasts for North America.

The IMADA-AVER Boundary Layer Experiment in the Mexico City Area

Abstract A boundary layer field experiment in the Mexico City basin during the period 24 February–22 March 1997 is described. A total of six sites were instrumented. At four of the sites, 915-MHz radar wind profilers were deployed and radiosondes were released five times per day. Two of these sites also had sodars collocated with the profilers. Radiosondes were released twice per day at a fifth site to the south of the basin, and rawinsondes were flown from another location to the northeast of the city three times per day. Mixed layers grew to depths of 2500–3500 m, with a rapid period of growth beginning shortly before noon and lasting for several hours. Significant differences between the mixed-layer temperatures in the basin and outside the basin were observed. Three thermally and topographically driven flow patterns were observed that are consistent with previously hypothesized topographical and thermal forcing mechanisms. Despite these features, the circulation patterns in the basin important for the...

The Accumulation and Pooling of Drainage Flows in a Large Basin

Abstract We describe a sequence of tethersonde and solar measurements showing the effects of the pooling of cold air drainages in a basin located along the Colorado River below the Brush drainage. Results obtained during periods of weak ambient winds show that the basin fills over a period of several hours, then eventually overflows. The depth of the pool is such as to affect tributary drainages, such as that of Brush Creek, and to cause the accumulating drainage jets to become elevated as they flow down the larger drainage channels into the basin.

Forecast Issues in the Urban Zone: Report of the 10th Prospectus Development Team of the U.S. Weather Research Program

The 10th Prospectus Development Team (PDT-10) of the U.S. Weather Research Program was charged with iden- tifying research needs and opportunities related to the short-term prediction of weather and air quality in urban forecast zones. Weather has special and significant impacts on large numbers of the U.S. population who live in major urban areas. It is recognized that urban users have different weather information needs than do their rural counterparts. Further, large urban areas can impact local weather and hydrologic processes in various ways. The recommendations of the team emphasize that human life and well-being in urban areas can be protected and enjoyed to a significantly greater degree. In particular, PDT-10 supports the need for 1) improved access to real-time weather information, 2) improved tailoring of weather data to the specific needs of individual user groups, and 3) more user-specific forecasts of weather and air quality. Specific recommendations fall within nine thematic areas: 1) development of a user-oriented weather database; 2) focused research on the impacts of visibility and icing on transportation; 3) improved understanding and forecasting of winter storms; 4) improved understanding and forecasting of convective storms; 5) improved forecasting of intense/ severe lightning; 6) further research into the impacts of large urban areas on the location and intensity of urban convec- tion; 7) focused research on the application of mesoscale forecasting in support of emergency response and air quality; 8) quantification and reduction of uncertainty in hydrological, meteorological, and air quality modeling; and 9) the need for improved observing systems. An overarching recommendation of PDT-10 is that research into understanding and predicting weather impacts in urban areas should receive increased emphasis by the atmospheric science community at large, and that urban weather should be a focal point of the U.S. Weather Research Program.

Measurements and Modeling of the Effects of Ambient Meteorology on Nocturnal Drainage Flows

Abstract An experimental and modeling investigation of nocturnal drainage flows within the Mesa Creek valley in western Colorado revealed their wind and temperature characteristics and the effects of the ambient meteorology on their development. The valley, located about 30 km east of Grand Junction, is situated on the north slopes of the Grand Mesa. It is surrounded by ridges on three sides with low terrain toward the north. The terrain at the higher elevations is characterized by steep slopes that become shallower at the lower elevations. A network of seven meteorological towers and a monostatic solar collected data within the study area from December 1988 through November 1989. Analysis of the experimental data indicated that shallow drainage flows generated over the many individual slopes at the higher elevations converge at the lower elevations to form deeper flows that join with those generated within adjacent drainage areas. The characteristics of the flows generally deviated from those displayed b...

A Twenty-First-Century California Observing Network for Monitoring Extreme Weather Events

AbstractDuring Northern Hemisphere winters, the West Coast of North America is battered by extratropical storms. The impact of these storms is of paramount concern to California, where aging water supply and flood protection infrastructures are challenged by increased standards for urban flood protection, an unusually variable weather regime, and projections of climate change. Additionally, there are inherent conflicts between releasing water to provide flood protection and storing water to meet requirements for the water supply, water quality, hydropower generation, water temperature and flow for at-risk species, and recreation. To improve reservoir management and meet the increasing demands on water, improved forecasts of precipitation, especially during extreme events, are required. Here, the authors describe how California is addressing their most important and costliest environmental issue—water management—in part, by installing a state-of-the-art observing system to better track the area’s most seve...

Observations of complex-terrain flows using acoustic sounders: Experiments, topography, and winds

Acoustic sounders have now been used extensively in a series of noctural drainage flow experiments carried out by the U.S. Department of Energys Atmospheric Studies in Complex Terrain (ASCOT) program. Doppler acoustic sounders, located in three different valleys during the sequence of experiments, reveal drainage-wind profiles that depend strongly on the ambient meteorological conditions and the elevation of each observing site relative to surrounding terrain. In elevated sites that drain easily, Doppler-sounder derived wind profiles show a simply-structured flow; in lower lying areas, subject to topographic constriction and cold-air pooling, and where Archimedean forces are comparable to those due to synoptic and mesoscale pressure gradients, the wind profiles show considerable vertical and temporal variation. In particular, in the Geysers area of northern California, the seabreeze and the depth of the Pacific Coast marine inversion affect not only the initiation of drainage winds but also their subsequent evolution.

NOAA's Rapid Response to the Howard A. Hanson Dam Flood Risk Management Crisis

The Howard A. Hanson Dam (HHD) has brought flood protection to Washingtons Green River Valley for more than 40 years and opened the way for increased valley development near Seattle. However, following a record high level of water behind the dam in January 2009 and the discovery of elevated seepage through the dams abutment, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers declared the dam “unsafe.” NOAAs Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR) and National Weather Service (NWS) worked together to respond rapidly to this crisis for the 2009/10 winter season, drawing from innovations developed in NWS offices and in NOAAs Hydrometeorology Test-bed (HMT). New data telemetry was added to 14 existing surface rain gauges, allowing the gauge data to be ingested into the NWS rainfall database. The NWS Seattle Weather Forecast Office produced customized daily forecasts, including longer-lead-time hydrologic outlooks and new decision support services tailored for emergency managers and the public, new capabilities ena...

Observations of complex terrain flows using acoustic sounders: Drainage flow structure and evolution

This paper presents an analysis of nocturnal drainage flows in a mountainous coastal environment where the elevation of the terrain is comparable with the elevation of the marine temperature inversion. The analysis traces the initiation, evolution, and breakup of the drainage flow using acoustic sounder facsimile data and tethered sonde measurements of wind and temperature. Conditions addressed include (1) opposing seabreeze flow ranging from 2 to 8m s-1, (2) aiding flow, and (3) large-scale and drainage-induced subsidence. The effect of deep marine temperature inversions pervades the observations, as seen in deeper, more stratified echo layers, weaker drainage, and delayed destruction of the inversion in the morning.

Improved Mechanistic Understanding of Natural Gas Methane Emissions from Spatially Resolved Aircraft Measurements

Divergence in recent oil and gas related methane emission estimates between aircraft studies (basin total for a midday window) and emissions inventories (annualized regional and national statistics) indicate the need for better understanding the experimental design, including temporal and spatial alignment and interpretation of results. Our aircraft-based methane emission estimates in a major U.S. shale gas basin resolved from west to east show (i) similar spatial distributions for 2 days, (ii) strong spatial correlations with reported NG production (R2 = 0.75) and active gas well pad count (R2 = 0.81), and (iii) 2× higher emissions in the western half (normalized by gas production) despite relatively homogeneous dry gas and well characteristics. Operator reported hourly activity data show that midday episodic emissions from manual liquid unloadings (a routine operation in this basin and elsewhere) could explain ∼1/3 of the total emissions detected midday by the aircraft and ∼2/3 of the west-east difference in emissions. The 22% emission difference between both days further emphasizes that episodic sources can substantially impact midday methane emissions and that aircraft may detect daily peak emissions rather than daily averages that are generally employed in emissions inventories. While the aircraft approach is valid, quantitative, and independent, our study sheds new light on the interpretation of previous basin scale aircraft studies, and provides an improved mechanistic understanding of oil and gas related methane emissions.