Cally Ardington

The impact of parental death on school outcomes: Longitudinal evidence from South Africa

We analyze longitudinal data from a demographic surveillance area (DSA) in KwaZulu-Natal to examine the impact of parental death on children’s outcomes. The results show significant differences in the impact of mothers’ and fathers’ deaths. The loss of a child’s mother is a strong predictor of poor schooling outcomes. Maternal orphans are significantly less likely to be enrolled in school and have completed significantly fewer years of schooling, conditional on age, than children whose mothers are alive. Less money is spent on maternal orphans’ educations, on average, conditional on enrollment. Moreover, children whose mothers have died appear to be at an educational disadvantage when compared with non-orphaned children with whom they live. We use the timing of mothers’ deaths relative to children’s educational shortfalls to argue that mothers’ deaths have a causal effect on children’s educations. The loss of a child’s father is a significant correlate of poor household socioeconomic status. However, the death of a father between waves of the survey has no significant effect on subsequent asset ownership. Evidence from the South African 2001 Census suggests that the estimated effects of maternal deaths on children’s outcomes in the Africa Centre DSA reflect the reality for orphans throughout South Africa.

Orphanhood and Schooling in South Africa: Trends in the vulnerability of orphans between 1993 and 2005

Using 10 nationally representative surveys conducted between 1993 and 2005, we assess the extent to which the vulnerability of orphans to poorer educational outcomes has changed over time as the AIDS crisis deepens in South Africa. In line with the existing literature, we find that at every point in time orphans are at risk of poorer educational outcomes, with maternal deaths generally having stronger negative effects than paternal deaths. However, despite a significant increase in the number of orphans over the past decade, we find no evidence of a systematic strengthening of these negative effects. In order to understand this, we explore patterns of caregiving for orphans. We find that these patterns have shifted over time. While orphans are still absorbed into extended families, single orphans are increasingly less likely to live with the surviving parent, and there is an increasing reliance on grandparents as caregivers. Up to this point, these changing patterns of caregiving within extended families seem to have avoided further worsening in the educational outcomes for the increasing number of orphans.

The impact of AIDS on intergenerational support in South Africa: Evidence from the Cape Area Panel Study

This study uses panel data from Cape Town to document the role played by aging parents in caring for grandchildren who lose parents due to illnesses such as AIDS. The authors quantify the probabilities that older adults and their adult children provide financial support to orphaned grandchildren. The authors find significant transfers of public and private funds to older adults caring for orphans. Perhaps because of these transfers the authors find no differences in expenditure patterns between households with orphans and other older adult households. They also find no impact of either the death of a child or taking in orphaned grandchildren on adult well-being as measured by ability to work, depression, or self-reported health. Findings suggest that the combined public and private safety net in South Africa mitigates many of the consequences older adults could suffer when an adult child dies and leaves behind grandchildren needing care.

Distance decay and persistent health care disparities in South Africa

BackgroundAccess to health care is a particular concern given the important role of poor access in perpetuating poverty and inequality. South Africa’s apartheid history leaves large racial disparities in access despite post-apartheid health policy to increase the number of health facilities, even in remote rural areas. However, even when health services are provided free of charge, monetary and time costs of travel to a local clinic may pose a significant barrier for vulnerable segments of the population, leading to overall poorer health.MethodsUsing newly available health care utilization data from the first nationally representative panel survey in South Africa, together with administrative geographic data from the Department of Health, we use graphical and multivariate regression analysis to investigate the role of distance to the nearest facility on the likelihood of having a health consultation or an attended birth.ResultsNinety percent of South Africans live within 7 km of the nearest public clinic, and two-thirds live less than 2 km away. However, 14% of Black African adults live more than 5 km from the nearest facility, compared to only 4% of Whites, and they are 16 percentage points less likely to report a recent health consultation (p < 0.01) and 47 percentage points less likely to use private facilities (p < 0.01). Respondents in the poorest income quintiles live 0.5 to 0.75 km further from the nearest health facility (p < 0.01). Racial differentials in the likelihood of having a health consultation or an attended birth persist even after controlling for confounders.ConclusionsOur results have two policy implications: minimizing the distance that poor South Africans must travel to obtain health care and improving the quality of care provided in poorer areas will reduce inequality. Much has been done to redress disparities in South Africa since the end of apartheid but progress is still needed to achieve equity in health care access.

Mortality in South Africa: Socio-economic profile and association with self-reported health

This paper exploits the first two waves of the National Income Dynamics Study (NIDS) to describe the socio-economic profile of mortality and to assess whether self-rated health status is predictive of mortality between waves. Mortality rates in NIDS are in line with estimates from official death notification data and display the expected hump of excess mortality in early and middle adulthood due to AIDS, with the excess peaking earlier for women than for men. We find evidence of a socio-economic gradient in mortality, with higher rates of mortality for individuals from asset-poor households and with lower levels of education. Consistent with evidence from many industrialised countries and a few developing countries, we find self-rated health to be a significant predictor of two-year mortality, an association that remains after controlling for socio-economic status and several other subjective and objective measures of health.

Early Childbearing, Human Capital Attainment, and Mortality Risk: Evidence from a Longitudinal Demographic Surveillance Area in Rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

Using a rich longitudinal data set, we examine the relationship between teen fertility and both subsequent educational outcomes and HIV-related mortality risk in rural South Africa. Human capital deficits among teen mothers are large and significant, with earlier births associated with greater deficits. In contrast to many other studies from developed countries, we find no clear evidence of selectivity into teen childbearing in either schooling trajectories or prefertility household characteristics. Enrollment rates among teen mothers only begin to drop in the period immediately preceding the birth, and future teen mothers are not behind in their schooling relative to other girls. Older teen mothers and those further ahead in school for their age prebirth are more likely to continue schooling after the birth. In addition to adolescents’ higher biological vulnerability to HIV infection, pregnancy also appears to increase the risk of contracting HIV. Following women over an extended period, we document a higher HIV-related mortality risk for teen mothers that cannot be explained by household characteristics in early adulthood. Controlling for age at sexual debut, we find that teen mothers report lower condom use and older partners than other sexually active adolescents.

Health Outcomes for Children Born to Teen Mothers in Cape Town, South Africa

This article analyzes whether children born to teen mothers in Cape Town, South Africa, are disadvantaged in terms of their health outcomes because their mother is a teen. Exploiting the longitudinal nature of the Cape Area Panel Study, we assess whether observable differences between teen mothers and slightly older mothers can explain why firstborn children of teen mothers appear disadvantaged. Our balanced regressions indicate that observed characteristics cannot explain the full extent of the disadvantage of being born to a teen mother, with children born to teen mothers continuing to have significantly worse child health outcomes, especially among Coloured children. In particular, children born to teens are more likely to be underweight at birth and to be stunted, with the disadvantage for Coloured children four times that for African children.

Explaining the persistence of racial gaps in schooling in South Africa

This paper analyses the large racial differences in progress through secondary school in South Africa using recently collected longitudinal data. Following the progress of students who were enrolled in Grades 8 and 9 in 2002 in the Cape Area Panel Study, we document large differences in the probability of grade advancement between white, coloured, and African youth. Probit regressions indicate that grade advancement between 2002 and 2005 is strongly associated with household income and with respondents’ scores on a baseline literacy and numeracy test. We fully explain the white and coloured advantage over Africans in

The Impact of Household Shocks on Adolescent School Outcomes in South Africa

This paper uses the the Cape Area Panel Study (CAPS), a longitudinal survey of young people in Cape Town, to analyze the impact of short-term household economic shocks on the schooling outcomes of South African youth. In addition to detailed information on schooling and employment, CAPS has collected information on negative shocks experienced by households, including job loss, business failure, theft, property damage, and death of household members. The CAPS panel data allow us to prospectively follow young people as they progress through secondary school, looking at the impact of both initial conditions and household shocks that occur between waves. We follow about 1000 CAPS respondents who were in grade 8 or 9 in 2002. Our results indicate that youth households that experience a negative shock are 12 percentage points less likely to advance three grades between 2002 and 2005.