Nicola Branson

Progress through school and the determinants of school dropout in South Africa

The release of the National Income Dynamics Study Wave 2 provides the first nationally representative longitudinal data collected in South Africa, making it possible to study transitions in and out of school, across grades and into work, in ways not previously possible. We illustrate the high levels of grade repetition evident in South African schools and show how school completion presents a significant hurdle with very few youth successfully matriculating. Exit from school does not offer any advantages as most youth find themselves idle once they have left school. Our regression analysis investigates correlates of school dropout and shows that falling behind is a key determinant of school dropout, even after controlling for school quality and socio-economic status. Those behind but attending higher quality schools are partially protected from dropping out. Some evidence that credit constraints may be related to dropout is found, especially among males.

Health Outcomes for Children Born to Teen Mothers in Cape Town, South Africa

This article analyzes whether children born to teen mothers in Cape Town, South Africa, are disadvantaged in terms of their health outcomes because their mother is a teen. Exploiting the longitudinal nature of the Cape Area Panel Study, we assess whether observable differences between teen mothers and slightly older mothers can explain why firstborn children of teen mothers appear disadvantaged. Our balanced regressions indicate that observed characteristics cannot explain the full extent of the disadvantage of being born to a teen mother, with children born to teen mothers continuing to have significantly worse child health outcomes, especially among Coloured children. In particular, children born to teens are more likely to be underweight at birth and to be stunted, with the disadvantage for Coloured children four times that for African children.

Explaining the persistence of racial gaps in schooling in South Africa

This paper analyses the large racial differences in progress through secondary school in South Africa using recently collected longitudinal data. Following the progress of students who were enrolled in Grades 8 and 9 in 2002 in the Cape Area Panel Study, we document large differences in the probability of grade advancement between white, coloured, and African youth. Probit regressions indicate that grade advancement between 2002 and 2005 is strongly associated with household income and with respondents’ scores on a baseline literacy and numeracy test. We fully explain the white and coloured advantage over Africans in

Causes and Consequences of Teen Childbearing: Evidence from a Reproductive Health Intervention in South Africa

We use a natural experiment to estimate the causal impact of a public health intervention aimed at reducing teenage childbearing. The geographic and timing variation in the rollout of the South African National Adolescent Friendly Clinic Initiative (NAFCI) in the early 2000s provides a plausibly exogenous increase in reproductive health knowledge and clinical access for teens. We investigate the causal pathway from the interventions initial impact on early-teen childbearing to subsequent consequences for later-life outcomes of prime policy interest - education, employment and child health. Our empirical strategy uses GPS data from the National Income Dynamics Study to geolink womens location of residence during adolescence to the location and timing of the rollout. Our results show that living near a NAFCI clinic during adolescence delayed childbearing, substantially lowering the likelihood of early teen childbearing. We estimate that adolescents who had access to NAFCI completed more years of schooling and, consistent with increased human capital investments, earn substantially higher wages as young adults. Finally, children born to women who had access to youth-friendly services as teens show substantial health advantages, indicating a strong intergenerational benefit of delaying early teen childbearing in a developing country context.