Camila I. Donatti

Living in the land of ghosts: fruit traits and the importance of large mammals as seed dispersers in the Pantanal, Brazil.

Seed dispersers play a key role in the ecology and evolution of fleshyfruited plants; especially in tropical forests where from 70% to 90% of all woody species are dispersed by vertebrates (Fleming et al., 1987; Jordano, 2000). Local plant communities with a range of fruit types are assembled under a variety of selection pressures and historical effects. Analyses of community-level variation in fruit traits indicate that they also reflect variations in the composition of the main seed dispersers in the animal community (Mack, 1993; Fleming et al., 1987; Fleming, 1991, 2005). Fruit size is one of the main traits selected by frugivorous vertebrates and has multiple potential influences on seed mass, and therefore on germination and seedling survival (Jordano, 1995). Not unexpectedly, large-scale, community-wide comparisons of fruit traits have reported variation in traits related to fruit size paralleling changes in the frugivore community (see Fleming et al., 1987; Jordano, 2000; Herrera, 2002, and references therein). At a community level, the interactions among plants and frugivores often show high diversity and low specificity (Jordano et al., 2003; Silva et al., Chapter 26, this volume; Forget et al., Chapter 1, this volume). In this context, large-scale comparisons between areas with different faunal assemblages have been widely used to investigate local co-adaptations between plants and frugivores (Snow, 1980; Fischer and Chapman, 1993; Voigt et al., 2004) and are a powerful tool in analyses of ecological convergence at the community level (Schluter, 1988; Corlett and Primack, 2006). However, comparative analyses based on extant communities implicitly ignore the fact that these mutualisms build up on highly

Mapping adaptive capacity and smallholder agriculture: applying expert knowledge at the landscape scale

The impacts of climate change exacerbate the myriad challenges faced by smallholder farmers in the Tropics. In many of these same regions, there is a lack of current, consistent, and spatially-explicit data, which severely limits the ability to locate smallholder communities, map their adaptive capacity, and target adaptation measures to these communities. To explore the adaptive capacity of smallholder farmers in three data-poor countries in Central America, we leveraged expert input through in-depth mapping interviews to locate agricultural landscapes, identify smallholder farming systems within them, and characterize different components of farmer adaptive capacity. We also used this input to generate an index of adaptive capacity that allows for comparison across countries and farming systems. Here, we present an overview of the expert method used, followed by an examination of our results, including the intercountry variation in expert knowledge and the characterization of adaptive capacity for both subsistence and smallholder coffee farmers. While this approach does not replace the need to collect regular and consistent data on farming systems (e.g. agricultural census), our study demonstrates a rapid assessment approach for using expert input to fill key data gaps, enable trans-boundary comparisons, and to facilitate the identification of the most vulnerable smallholder communities for adaptation planning in data-poor environments that are typical of tropical regions. One potential benefit from incorporating this approach is that it facilitates the systematic consideration of field-based and regional experience into assessments of adaptive capacity, contributing to the relevance and utility of adaptation plans.

Regional modeling of climate change impacts on smallholder agriculture and ecosystems in Central America

Climate change will have serious repercussions for agriculture, ecosystems, and farmer livelihoods in Central America. Smallholder farmers are particularly vulnerable due to their reliance on agriculture and ecosystem services for their livelihoods. There is an urgent need to develop national and local adaptation responses to reduce these impacts, yet evidence from historical climate change is fragmentary. Modeling efforts help bridge this gap. Here, we review the past decade of research on agricultural and ecological climate change impact models for Central America. The results of this review provide insights into the expected impacts of climate change and suggest policy actions that can help minimize these impacts. Modeling indicates future climate-driven changes, often declines, in suitability for Central American crops. Declines in suitability for coffee, a central crop in the regional economy, are noteworthy. Ecosystem models suggest that climate-driven changes are likely at low- and high-elevation montane forest transitions. Modeling of vulnerability suggests that smallholders in many parts of the region have one or more vulnerability factors that put them at risk. Initial adaptation policies can be guided by these existing modeling results. At the same time, improved modeling is being developed that will allow policy action specifically targeted to vulnerable groups, crops, and locations. We suggest that more robust modeling of ecological responses to climate change, improved representation of the region in climate models, and simulation of climate influences on crop yields and diseases (especially coffee leaf rust) are key priorities for future research.

A socio-ecological approach for identifying and contextualising spatial ecosystem-based adaptation priorities at the sub-national level

Climate change adds an additional layer of complexity to existing sustainable development and biodiversity conservation challenges. The impacts of global climate change are felt locally, and thus local governance structures will increasingly be responsible for preparedness and local responses. Ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) options are gaining prominence as relevant climate change solutions. Local government officials seldom have an appropriate understanding of the role of ecosystem functioning in sustainable development goals, or access to relevant climate information. Thus the use of ecosystems in helping people adapt to climate change is limited partially by the lack of information on where ecosystems have the highest potential to do so. To begin overcoming this barrier, Conservation South Africa in partnership with local government developed a socio-ecological approach for identifying spatial EbA priorities at the sub-national level. Using GIS-based multi-criteria analysis and vegetation distribution models, the authors have spatially integrated relevant ecological and social information at a scale appropriate to inform local level political, administrative, and operational decision makers. This is the first systematic approach of which we are aware that highlights spatial priority areas for EbA implementation. Nodes of socio-ecological vulnerability are identified, and the inclusion of areas that provide ecosystem services and ecological resilience to future climate change is innovative. The purpose of this paper is to present and demonstrate a methodology for combining complex information into user-friendly spatial products for local level decision making on EbA. The authors focus on illustrating the kinds of products that can be generated from combining information in the suggested ways, and do not discuss the nuance of climate models nor present specific technical details of the model outputs here. Two representative case studies from rural South Africa demonstrate the replicability of this approach in rural and peri-urban areas of other developing and least developed countries around the world.

Diet Overlap and Foraging Activity between Feral Pigs and Native Peccaries in the Pantanal.

Inter-specific competition is considered one of the main selective pressures affecting species distribution and coexistence. Different species vary in the way they forage in order to minimize encounters with their competitors and with their predators. However, it is still poorly known whether and how native species change their foraging behavior in the presence of exotic species, particularly in South America. Here we compare diet overlap of fruits and foraging activity period of two sympatric native ungulates (the white-lipped peccary, Tayassu pecari, and the collared peccary, Pecari tajacu) with the invasive feral pig (Sus scrofa) in the Brazilian Pantanal. We found high diet overlap between white-lipped peccaries and feral pigs, but low overlap between collared peccaries and feral pigs. Furthermore, we found that feral pigs may influence the foraging period of both native peccaries, but in different ways. In the absence of feral pigs, collared peccary activity peaks in the early evening, possibly allowing them to avoid white-lipped peccary activity peaks, which occur in the morning. In the presence of feral pigs, collared peccaries forage mostly in early morning, while white-lipped peccaries forage throughout the day. Our results indicate that collared peccaries may avoid foraging at the same time as white-lipped peccaries. However, they forage during the same periods as feral pigs, with whom they have lower diet overlap. Our study highlights how an exotic species may alter interactions between native species by interfering in their foraging periods.

What information do policy makers need to develop climate adaptation plans for smallholder farmers? The case of Central America and Mexico

Scientific and technical information can increase the ability of policy makers to make strategic decisions. However, climate change policy is often formulated without significant input from science. We examine whether the availability and accessibility of information related to climate change is a major barrier for policy action on climate change adaptation for smallholder farmers. We also investigate whether scientific information related to climate change is available and used in policy making in Central America and Mexico. Our online survey of 105 decision makers indicated that a lack of scientific and technical information hinders policy makers from developing policies to help smallholder farmers adapt to climate change. Specific needs include information on the impacts of climate change on water availability for agriculture and the areas that are or will be prone to flooding, droughts or landslides. Information about the location of the farmers who are most vulnerable to climate change, the projected temperature and precipitation in agricultural areas and the expected impacts of climate change on crop yields or animal productivity, is also needed. Despite high interest in having scientific information guide policy making, many respondents indicated that policy makers rarely use this information in adaptation planning. In addition to ensuring that relevant information is available to inform policy making, technical and scientific information must be published in venues that are readily accessible for policy makers, easy to understand, and written in a format that is policy-relevant. It is also critical that scientific articles provide specific recommendations for achieving desired policy outcomes.

Vulnerability of smallholder farmers to climate change in Central America and Mexico: current knowledge and research gaps

As governments are becoming aware of the potential impacts of climate change on agriculture many are developing adaptation policies targeting smallholder farmers. However, in many cases, governments lack information to develop them. We reviewed the state of knowledge of smallholder’s vulnerability to climate change in Central America and Mexico and identified information gaps that may be preventing the development of adaptation actions targeting this group. While there is information on expected impacts of climate change on agriculture and on adaptation measures that could help minimize impacts, information that specifically assess the vulnerability of smallholder farmers to climate change is very limited. To support adaptation policies targeting smallholders in the region, more information is needed on (a) who the most vulnerable smallholders are and where they are located, (b) what is driving the vulnerability of smallholder farmers to climate change in target areas and (c) what are the effectiveness, costs and benefits of adaptation measures recommended for smallholder farmers. Funding and programmes need to be set up to fill those gaps and for adaptation to be effectively implemented. Other regions where smallholder farmers are important for agriculture production may be facing similar issues.

Coupling of pollination services and coffee suitability under climate change

Significance Coffee production supports the livelihoods of millions of smallholder farmers around the world, and bees provide coffee farms with pollination. Climate change will modify coffee and bee distributions, and thus coffee production. We modeled impacts for the largest coffee-growing region, Latin America, under global warming scenarios. Although we found reduced coffee suitability and bee species diversity for more than one-third of the future coffee-suitable areas, all future coffee-suitable areas will potentially host at least five bee species, indicating continued pollination services. Bee diversity also can be expected to offset farmers’ losses from reduced coffee suitability. In other areas, bee diversity losses offset increased coffee suitability. Our results highlight the need for responsive management strategies tailored to bee pollination, coffee suitability, and potential coupled effects. Climate change will cause geographic range shifts for pollinators and major crops, with global implications for food security and rural livelihoods. However, little is known about the potential for coupled impacts of climate change on pollinators and crops. Coffee production exemplifies this issue, because large losses in areas suitable for coffee production have been projected due to climate change and because coffee production is dependent on bee pollination. We modeled the potential distributions of coffee and coffee pollinators under current and future climates in Latin America to understand whether future coffee-suitable areas will also be suitable for pollinators. Our results suggest that coffee-suitable areas will be reduced 73–88% by 2050 across warming scenarios, a decline 46–76% greater than estimated by global assessments. Mean bee richness will decline 8–18% within future coffee-suitable areas, but all are predicted to contain at least 5 bee species, and 46–59% of future coffee-suitable areas will contain 10 or more species. In our models, coffee suitability and bee richness each increase (i.e., positive coupling) in 10–22% of future coffee-suitable areas. Diminished coffee suitability and bee richness (i.e., negative coupling), however, occur in 34–51% of other areas. Finally, in 31–33% of the future coffee distribution areas, bee richness decreases and coffee suitability increases. Assessing coupled effects of climate change on crop suitability and pollination can help target appropriate management practices, including forest conservation, shade adjustment, crop rotation, or status quo, in different regions.