Camilla Dibari

Projected shifts of wine regions in response to climate change

This research simulates the impact of climate change on the distribution of the most important European wine regions using a comprehensive suite of spatially informative layers, including bioclimatic indices and water deficit, as predictor variables. More specifically, a machine learning approach (Random Forest, RF) was first calibrated for the present period and applied to future climate conditions as simulated by HadCM3 General Circulation Model (GCM) to predict the possible spatial expansion and/or shift in potential grapevine cultivated area in 2020 and 2050 under A2 and B2 SRES scenarios. Projected changes in climate depicted by the GCM and SRES scenarios results in a progressive warming in all bioclimatic indices as well as increasing water deficit over the European domain, altering the climatic profile of each of the grapevine cultivated areas. The two main responses to these warmer and drier conditions are 1) progressive shifts of existing grapevine cultivated area to the north–northwest of their original ranges, and 2) expansion or contraction of the wine regions due to changes in within region suitability for grapevine cultivation. Wine regions with climatic conditions from the Mediterranean basin today (e.g., the Languedoc, Provence, Côtes Rhône Méridionales, etc.) were shown to potentially shift the most over time. Overall the results show the potential for a dramatic change in the landscape for winegrape production in Europe due to changes in climate.

Modelling olive trees and grapevines in a changing climate

The models developed for simulating olive tree and grapevine yields were reviewed by focussing on the major limitations of these models for their application in a changing climate. Empirical models, which exploit the statistical relationship between climate and yield, and process based models, where crop behaviour is defined by a range of relationships describing the main plant processes, were considered. The results highlighted that the application of empirical models to future climatic conditions (i.e. future climate scenarios) is unreliable since important statistical approaches and predictors are still lacking. While process-based models have the potential for application in climate-change impact assessments, our analysis demonstrated how the simulation of many processes affected by warmer and CO2-enriched conditions may give rise to important biases. Conversely, some crop model improvements could be applied at this stage since specific sub-models accounting for the effect of elevated temperatures and CO2 concentration were already developed. Empirical models are generally unreliable for their possible application in a changing climate.Complex process-based models have already the potential to provide reliable simulations for a changing climate.There is a clear need to improve the simulation of crop processes in response to increased CO2 and higher temperatures.Process-based models should be improved to simulate soil biochemical processes.

Climate Impact Assessments

This chapter highlights key climate impacts, hazards and vulnerabilities and associated indicators that have been used to assess current (recent) climate impacts at each of the case-study sites. The aim is to illustrate some of the wide range of information available from individual case studies and highlight common themes that are evident across multiple case-study locations. This is used to demonstrate linkages and sensitivities between the specific climate impacts of relevance for each case-study type (urban, rural and coastal) and the key climate hazards and biogeophysical and social vulnerabilities representing the underlying drivers and site conditions. For some impacts, there are clear, direct links with climate events, such as heat stress and flooding, while for others, such as energy supply and demand, the causal relationships are more indirect, via a cascade of climate, social and economic influences. Water availability and extreme temperatures are common drivers of current climate impacts across all case studies, including, for example, freshwater supply and heat stress for urban populations; irrigation capacity and growing season length for agricultural regions; and saltwater intrusion of aquifers and tourist visitor numbers at coastal locations. At some individual case-study locations, specific impacts, hazards and/or vulnerabilities are observed, such as peri-urban fires in Greater Athens, infrastructure vulnerability to coastal flooding in Alexandria, groundwater levels in Tel Hadya and vector-borne diseases in the Gulf of Oran. Throughout this chapter, evidence of current climate impacts, hazards and vulnerabilities from each of the case studies is detailed and assessed relative to other case studies. This provides a foundation for considering the wider perspective of the Mediterranean region as a whole, and for providing a context from which to assess consequences of future climate projections and consider suitable adaptation options.

Integration of the Climate Impact Assessments with Future Projections

Climate projections are essential in order to extend the case-study impacts and vulnerability assessments to encompass future climate change. Thus climate-model based indicators for the future (to 2050 and for the A1B emissions scenario) are presented for the climate and atmosphere theme (including indices of temperature and precipitation extreme events), together with biogeophysical and socioeconomic indicators encompassing the other case-study themes. For the latter, the specific examples presented here include peri-urban fires, air pollution, human health risks, energy demand, alien marine species and tourism (attractiveness and socio-economic consequences). The primary source of information about future climate is the set of global and regional model simulations performed as part of CIRCE. These have the main novel characteristic of incorporating a realistic representation of the Mediterranean Sea including coupling between sea and atmosphere. These projections are inevitably subject to uncertainties relating to unpredictability, model structural uncertainty and value uncertainty. These uncertainties are addressed by taking a multi-model approach, but problems remain, for example, due to a systematic cold bias in the CIRCE models. In the context of the case-study integrated assessments, there are also uncertainties ‘downstream’ of climate modeling and the construction of climate change projections – largely relating to the modeling of impacts. In addition, there are uncertainties associated with all socio-economic projections used in the case studies – such as population projections. Thus there are uncertainties inherent to all stages of the integrated assessments and it is important to consider all these aspects in the context of adaptation decision making.

Synthesis and the Assessment of Adaptation Measures

The final stage of the CIRCE case-studies integrated assessment involved identification and evaluation of the effectiveness of local and regional adaptation options in collaboration with stakeholders, and in the context of wider national adaptation policies and strategies. This stage provides a synthesis of both the case-study work and the wider CIRCE project since it draws on the case-study indicators for present and future periods together with wider CIRCE work on adaptation options, particularly in the thematic areas of agriculture, forestry and ecosystems, and Mediterranean communities. This synthesis and evaluation links impacts and vulnerability with adaptation, and also benefits strongly from the local stakeholder workshops held towards the end of the project. Lessons learnt and key messages from the CIRCE case studies are presented. While the objectives of the CIRCE case studies have generally been achieved, a number of research gaps and needs remain.

COMPARISON BETWEEN OLD AND MODERN WHEAT VARIETIES IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE: PRELIMINARY RESULTS FOR A STUDY IN TUSCANY [CONFRONTO TRA VARIETÀ ANTICHE E MODERNE DI FRUMENTO NEL CONTESTO DEL CAMBIAMENTO CLIMATICO: RISULTATI PRELIMINARI DI UNO STUDIO CONDOTTO IN TOSCANA]

Conservation agriculture (CA) can improve sustainable rice production. This work evaluated the effect of different CA practices on rice agronomic system. A four-year experiment (2013-2016) was carried out in Crescentino (VC), North-West Italy, comparing three tillage managements (sod dry seeding, sod wet seeding and ploughing), combined with three N fertilisation levels (0-110160 kg N ha) and two straw management (straw retained and removed). Yield and yield components were influenced by both tillage practices and N fertilisation, but not by straw management. Sod seeding reduced grain yield of about 16% with respect to ploughing, because of the lower panicle density and higher sterility. Rice responded to N fertilisation, but the higher sterility limited the positive effect at high N rates. Moreover, in sod seeding, high N supply increased Apparent Recovery (AR). Straw retention improved soil quality, increasing soil organic carbon concentration.

Physical and Socio-economic Indicators

A set of physical and social indicators relevant to each Mediterranean case study has been developed within the context of the CIRCE case studies integrating framework. This framework approach provides a systematic means of structuring indicator selection and helps to provide a scientific basis for the assessment of climate-related impacts and vulnerability. A detailed set of criteria was developed to select and refine indicators through an iterative process of review and consultation. Indicators represent key issues related to climate variability and change for each of the case-study locations. Seven key indicator themes are identified: climate and atmosphere; marine and coastal systems; terrestrial ecosystems and biodiversity; freshwater systems; agriculture and forestry; human health and well being; and, the economy. A number of core indicators are common to all case studies (for identifying common/disparate trends), others are common across generic case studies (urban, rural, coastal), and some are case-study specific. Data and methodological challenges in the indicator assessment included: data availability and quality limitations; distinguishing impacts from vulnerabilities, and climate from non-climate influences; and, identifying thresholds and coping ranges. Despite these difficulties, the selected set of indicators proved a useful and accessible tool for monitoring trends and portraying key information to regional stakeholders.

Territorio agricolo e cambiamenti globali

Economic, cultural, political, technology and environmental factors influence the agricultural system and territory. In particular, the climatic changes - in action and the changes forecast in the future above all - will be considerable repercussions on the agricultural territory and his productive capacities. It’s possible to introduce some arrangement strategies to reduce the negative impacts.