Camille Parmesan

Ecological responses to recent climate change.

There is now ample evidence of the ecological impacts of recent climate change, from polar terrestrial to tropical marine environments. The responses of both flora and fauna span an array of ecosystems and organizational hierarchies, from the species to the community levels. Despite continued uncertainty as to community and ecosystem trajectories under global change, our review exposes a coherent pattern of ecological change across systems. Although we are only at an early stage in the projected trends of global warming, ecological responses to recent climate change are already clearly visible.

A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems

Causal attribution of recent biological trends to climate change is complicated because non-climatic influences dominate local, short-term biological changes. Any underlying signal from climate change is likely to be revealed by analyses that seek systematic trends across diverse species and geographic regions; however, debates within the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reveal several definitions of a ‘systematic trend’. Here, we explore these differences, apply diverse analyses to more than 1,700 species, and show that recent biological trends match climate change predictions. Global meta-analyses documented significant range shifts averaging 6.1 km per decade towards the poles (or metres per decade upward), and significant mean advancement of spring events by 2.3 days per decade. We define a diagnostic fingerprint of temporal and spatial ‘sign-switching’ responses uniquely predicted by twentieth century climate trends. Among appropriate long-term/large-scale/multi-species data sets, this diagnostic fingerprint was found for 279 species. This suite of analyses generates ‘very high confidence’ (as laid down by the IPCC) that climate change is already affecting living systems.

Assisted Colonization and Rapid Climate Change

Moving species outside their historic ranges may mitigate loss of biodiversity in the face of global climate change.

The Pace of Shifting Climate in Marine and Terrestrial Ecosystems

Ecologically relevant measures of contemporary global climate change can predict species distributions and vulnerabilities. Climate change challenges organisms to adapt or move to track changes in environments in space and time. We used two measures of thermal shifts from analyses of global temperatures over the past 50 years to describe the pace of climate change that species should track: the velocity of climate change (geographic shifts of isotherms over time) and the shift in seasonal timing of temperatures. Both measures are higher in the ocean than on land at some latitudes, despite slower ocean warming. These indices give a complex mosaic of predicted range shifts and phenology changes that deviate from simple poleward migration and earlier springs or later falls. They also emphasize potential conservation concerns, because areas of high marine biodiversity often have greater velocities of climate change and seasonal shifts.

Impacts of Extreme Weather and Climate on Terrestrial Biota

Climate is a driver of biotic systems. It affects individual fitness, population dynamics, distribution and abundance of species, and ecosystem structure and function. Regional variation in climatic regimes creates selective pressures for the evolution of locally adapted physiologies, morphological adaptations (e.g., color patterns, surface textures, body shapes and sizes), and behavioral adaptations (e.g., foraging strategies and breeding systems). In the absence of humans, broad-scale, long-term consequences of climatic warming on wild organisms are generally predictable. Evidence from Pleistocene glaciations indicates that most species responded ecologically by shifting their ranges poleward and upward in elevation, rather than evolutionary through local adaptation (e.g., morphological changes). But these broad patterns tell us little about the relative importance of gradual climatic trends as compared to extreme weather events in shaping these processes. Here, evidence is brought forward that extreme ...

An Introduction to Trends in Extreme Weather and Climate Events: Observations, Socioeconomic Impacts, Terrestrial Ecological Impacts, and Model Projections*

Weather and climatic extremes can have serious and damaging effects on human society and infrastructure as well as on ecosystems and wildlife. Thus, they are usually the main focus of attention of the news media in reports on climate. There are some indications from observations concerning how climatic extremes may have changed in the past. Climate models show how they could change in the future either due to natural climate fluctuations or under conditions of greenhouse gas-induced warming. These observed and modeled changes relate directly to the understanding of socioeconomic and ecological impacts related to extremes.

Assessing “dangerous climate change”: Required reduction of carbon emissions to protect young people, future generations and nature

We assess climate impacts of global warming using ongoing observations and paleoclimate data. We use Earth’s measured energy imbalance, paleoclimate data, and simple representations of the global carbon cycle and temperature to define emission reductions needed to stabilize climate and avoid potentially disastrous impacts on today’s young people, future generations, and nature. A cumulative industrial-era limit of ∼500 GtC fossil fuel emissions and 100 GtC storage in the biosphere and soil would keep climate close to the Holocene range to which humanity and other species are adapted. Cumulative emissions of ∼1000 GtC, sometimes associated with 2°C global warming, would spur “slow” feedbacks and eventual warming of 3–4°C with disastrous consequences. Rapid emissions reduction is required to restore Earth’s energy balance and avoid ocean heat uptake that would practically guarantee irreversible effects. Continuation of high fossil fuel emissions, given current knowledge of the consequences, would be an act of extraordinary witting intergenerational injustice. Responsible policymaking requires a rising price on carbon emissions that would preclude emissions from most remaining coal and unconventional fossil fuels and phase down emissions from conventional fossil fuels.

Geographical limits to species-range shifts are suggested by climate velocity

The reorganization of patterns of species diversity driven by anthropogenic climate change, and the consequences for humans, are not yet fully understood or appreciated. Nevertheless, changes in climate conditions are useful for predicting shifts in species distributions at global and local scales. Here we use the velocity of climate change to derive spatial trajectories for climatic niches from 1960 to 2009 (ref. 7) and from 2006 to 2100, and use the properties of these trajectories to infer changes in species distributions. Coastlines act as barriers and locally cooler areas act as attractors for trajectories, creating source and sink areas for local climatic conditions. Climate source areas indicate where locally novel conditions are not connected to areas where similar climates previously occurred, and are thereby inaccessible to climate migrants tracking isotherms: 16% of global surface area for 1960 to 2009, and 34% of ocean for the ‘business as usual’ climate scenario (representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5) representing continued use of fossil fuels without mitigation. Climate sink areas are where climate conditions locally disappear, potentially blocking the movement of climate migrants. Sink areas comprise 1.0% of ocean area and 3.6% of land and are prevalent on coasts and high ground. Using this approach to infer shifts in species distributions gives global and regional maps of the expected direction and rate of shifts of climate migrants, and suggests areas of potential loss of species richness.

Divergent responses to spring and winter warming drive community level flowering trends

Analyses of datasets throughout the temperate midlatitude regions show a widespread tendency for species to advance their springtime phenology, consistent with warming trends over the past 20–50 y. Within these general trends toward earlier spring, however, are species that either have insignificant trends or have delayed their timing. Various explanations have been offered to explain this apparent nonresponsiveness to warming, including the influence of other abiotic cues (e.g., photoperiod) or reductions in fall/winter chilling (vernalization). Few studies, however, have explicitly attributed the historical trends of nonresponding species to any specific factor. Here, we analyzed long-term data on phenology and seasonal temperatures from 490 species on two continents and demonstrate that (i) apparent nonresponders are indeed responding to warming, but their responses to fall/winter and spring warming are opposite in sign and of similar magnitude; (ii) observed trends in first flowering date depend strongly on the magnitude of a given species’ response to fall/winter vs. spring warming; and (iii) inclusion of fall/winter temperature cues strongly improves hindcast model predictions of long-term flowering trends compared with models with spring warming only. With a few notable exceptions, climate change research has focused on the overall mean trend toward phenological advance, minimizing discussion of apparently nonresponding species. Our results illuminate an understudied source of complexity in wild species responses and support the need for models incorporating diverse environmental cues to improve predictability of community level responses to anthropogenic climate change.

Phenological asynchrony between herbivorous insects and their hosts: signal of climate change or pre-existing adaptive strategy?

Climate change alters phenological relations between interacting species. We might expect the historical baseline, or starting-point, for such effects to be precise synchrony between the season at which a consumer most requires food and the time when its resources are most available. We synthesize evidence that synchrony was not the historical condition in two insect–plant interactions involving Ediths checkerspot butterfly (Euphydryas editha), the winter moth (Operophtera brumata) and their host plants. Initial observations of phenological mismatch in both systems were made prior to the onset of anthropogenically driven climate change. Neither species can detect the phenology of its host plants with precision. In both species, evolution of life history has involved compromise between maximizing fecundity and minimizing mortality, with the outcome being superficially maladaptive strategies in which many, or even most, individuals die of starvation through poor synchrony with their host plants. Where phenological asynchrony or mismatch with resources forms the starting point for effects of anthropogenic global warming, consumers are particularly vulnerable to impacts that exacerbate the mismatch. This vulnerability likely contributed to extinction of a well-studied metapopulation of Ediths checkerspot, and to the skewed geographical pattern of population extinctions underlying a northward and upward range shift in this species.