Carin van der Cruijsen

The Economic Impact of Central Bank Transparency: A Survey

We provide an up-to-date overview of the literature on the desirability of central bank transparency from an economic viewpoint. Since the move towards more transparency, a lot of research on its effects has been carried out. First, we show how the theoretical literature has evolved, by looking into branches inspired by Cukierman and Meltzer (1986) and by investigating several, more recent, research strands (e.g. coordination and learning). Then, we summarize the empirical literature which has been growing more recently. Last, we discuss whether: i) the empirical research resolves all theoretical question marks, ii) how the findings of the literature match the actual practice of central banks, and iii) where there is scope for more research.

Does Central Bank Transparency Reduce Interest Rates

Central banks have become increasingly transparent during the last decade. One of the main benefits of transparency predicted by theoretical models is that it enhances the credibility, reputation, and flexibility of monetary policy, which suggests that increased transparency should result in lower nominal interest rates. This paper exploits a detailed transparency data set to investigate this relationship for eight major central banks. It appears that for all central banks, the level of interest rates is affected by the degree of central bank transparency. In particular, the majority of the improvements in transparency are associated with significant effects on interest rates, controlling for economic conditions. In most of these cases, interest rates are lower, often by around 50 basis points, although in some instances transparency appears to have had a detrimental effect on interest rates.

When Does the General Public Lose Trust in Banks

When does the general public lose trust in banks? We provide empirical evidence using responses by Dutch survey participants to eight hypothetical scenarios. We find that members of the general public care strongly about executive compensation. Negative media reports, falling stock prices, and opaque product information also affect trust in banks. Experiencing a bank bailout leads to less concern about government intervention, while experience of a bank failure leads to greater concern on bonuses.

The Rose-Colored Glasses of Homeowners

Based on annual household surveys between 2003 and 2012, we show that owners have a rosy picture of their current house value and hold optimistic views on the historical and expected change in house value compared to general price trends. Optimism is both driven by loss aversion and an endowment effect as overestimation of the house value is positively related to the mortgage loan-to-value ratio and tenure of the owner-occupier. After several years of national declines in house prices, the estimates in our sample have become more realistic but the glasses of homeowners remain rose-colored. Even groups of homeowners that are arguably well-informed, e.g. homeowners with moving plans and homeowners that are in charge of household finances, overestimate the value of their house.

In love with the debit card but still married to cash

Using shopping diary survey data we show that changing payment patterns is a challenging task; even when consumers have fallen in love with the debit card, they find it hard to divorce from cash. While seven out of ten Dutch consumers report to prefer using the debit card, only seven out of twenty actually mostly pay by debit card. The likelihood that reported preferences and actual behaviour do not match increases with income, education and age. Consumers with payments in cash-intensive sectors, where the wide acceptance of the debit card is a relatively recent phenomenon, are more likely to overestimate debit card usage than other consumers. The likelihood of a gap also increases with the amount of cash that consumers carry with them and decreases with the average transaction size. Our findings indicate that persistent habits are an important explanation why the substitution of cash by debit cards took place at a slower pace than was expected.

Changing Payment Patterns at Point-of-Sale: Their Drivers

Based on household surveys from 2004 and 2014 we show how payment patterns in the Netherlands have changed. This data is unique because it covers a long time span and includes detailed information on payment behaviour per point-of-sale (POS). In this period the usage of the debit card has increased sharply. Perceived characteristics of payment instruments have affected both their adoption and the intensity by which they are used. Of these, user-friendliness and safety are the most important drivers of the adoption of electronic payment instruments. Socio-demographic determinants of payment instrument adoption are quite robust over time. However, we find that the relevance of payment characteristics and socio-demographic characteristics for the intensity of use of payment instruments varies per POS and over time when instruments get generally adopted. Overall, user-friendliness is still the most important aspect and safety and speed remained relevant aspects, whereas costs are the least important aspect for the intensity by which payment instruments are used.

Actual versus Perceived Central Bank Transparency : The Case of the European Central Bank

Central banks have become more and more transparent about their monetary policy making process. In the central bank transparency literature the distinction between actual and perceived central bank transparency is often lacking. However, as perceptions are crucial for the actions of economic agents this distinction matters. A discrepancy between actual and perceived transparency may exist because of incomplete or incorrect transparency knowledge and other (psychological) factors. Even financial experts, the most important channel through which the central bank can influence the economy, might suffer from misaligned perceptions. We investigate the mismatch between actual and perceived transparency and its relevance by analyzing data of a Dutch household survey on the European Central Bank’s transparency. To benefit from higher transparency perceptions the European Central Bank might feel tempted to stress its transparency strengths, but hide its transparency weaknesses.

DRIVERS OF PAYMENT PATTERNS AT THE POINT OF SALE: STABLE OR NOT?

This research shows that it is key to have up†to†date information on payment behavior per type of point of sale (POS) and on how this behavior is driven by sociodemographic factors and perceived payment instrument attributes. Based on 2004 and 2014 data of the Netherlands, we find substantial shifts in the drivers of payment behavior. The sociodemographic factors behind the adoption of the credit card and debit card have changed, especially for the latter payment card. In addition, there are substantial shifts in the effects of sociodemographic factors and perceived relative payment attributes on which payment instrument consumers most often use. Shifts in payment behavior depend on the type of POS. Overall, we find that safety has become more important for payment behavior. The extent to which payment behavior depends on user†friendliness and speed has somewhat decreased. (JEL C25, D12, E42)

Payment Behaviour: The Role of Socio-Psychological Factors

This research examines the effects of socio-psychological factors on consumers’ payment behaviour. Based on insights from the socio-psychological and payment literature we build a theoretical model of payment behaviour. We test this model empirically by focusing on the choice between cash and electronic payments, and by using the outcomes of two specially constructed surveys of a representative panel of Dutch consumers. We are significantly better able to explain payment behaviour than traditional payment models. Moreover, we provide useful insights for those who want to understand and steer payment behaviour. Consumers’ payment attitudes depend on perceptions of attributes, such as safety and acceptance. Together with social norms, roles, emotions, and perceived control, these attitudes drive payment intentions. Although payment intentions are the key determinant of payment behaviour, payment habits also play an important role in explaining how consumers pay.

The Formation of European Inflation Expectations: One Learning Rule Does Not Fit All

We empirically investigate how well different learning rules manage to explain the formation of household inflation expectations in six key member countries of the euro area. Our findings reveal a pronounced heterogeneity in the learning rules employed on the country level. While the expectation formation process in some countries can be best explained by rules that incorporate forward-looking elements (Germany, Italy, the Netherlands), households in other countries employ information on energy prices (France) or form their expectations by means of more traditional learning rules (Belgium, Spain). Moreover, our findings suggest that least squares based algorithms significantly outperform their stochastic gradient counterparts, not only in replicating inflation expectation data but also in forecasting actual inflation rates.