David-Jan Jansen

Look who's talking: ECB communication during the first years of EMU

This paper studies ECB and Bundesbank communication on monetary policy during the first years of the European Economic and Monetary Union. We study whether statements by different (groups of) central bankers have been contradictory and whether differences have diminished over time. We find that statements on the interest rate, inflation and economic growth have indeed been contradictory. Furthermore, national central banks continue to dominate communication on monetary policy. Finally, only the ECB Executive Board has observed radio silence before ECB Governing Council meetings. A positive conclusion is that, over time, interest rate statements have become less contradictory.

Were Verbal Efforts to Support the Euro Effective? A High-frequency Analysis of ECB Statements

This paper studies the effects of verbal interventions by European cen-tral bankers on high-frequency euro-dollar exchange rates. We find that ECB verbal interventions have had only small and short-lived effects. Ver- bal interventions which are reported in news report headlines are more likely to be successful, whereas verbal interventions on days with releases of macroeconomic data are less successful. There is no difference in the effects of comments by members of the ECB Executive Board and presi- dents of national central banks.

Has ECB communication been helpful in predicting interest rate decisions? An evaluation of the early years of the Economic and Monetary Union

We examine the usefulness of communication by the European Central Bank for predicting its policy decisions during the early years of the European Economic and Monetary Union. Using ordered probit models based on the Taylor rule, we find that statements on the main refinancing rate and future inflation are significantly related to interest rate decisions. At the same time, an out-of-sample evaluation shows that communication-based models do not outperform models based on macroeconomic data in predicting decisions. Both types of models have difficulty in predicting changes in the main refinancing rate.

Increasing Concentration in European Banking: A Macro-level Analysis

The recent wave of mergers and acquisitions in the European banking sector has raised concerns that bank profitability will rise because of less competitive market conditions. This paper analyses the relationship between concentration, competitiveness, efficiency and profitability in the European banking markets by using panel regressions. Estimates from various recent studies on competition and efficiency in national banking sectors are related to concentration and profitability indicators for these sectors. Our results do not suggest the existence of any connection at the macro-level between concentration and competition. There is also no robust relationship between concentration and profitability.

DOES THE CLARITY OF CENTRAL BANK COMMUNICATION AFFECT VOLATILITY IN FINANCIAL MARKETS? EVIDENCE FROM HUMPHREY‐HAWKINS TESTIMONIES

By applying readability statistics to the Humphrey‐Hawkins testimonies given by the Federal Reserve Chairman, it is tested whether the clarity of central bank communication affects volatility in financial markets. There are three results. First, when clarity matters, it has a diminishing effect on volatility. Second, clarity of communication matters mostly for volatility of medium‐term interest rates. Third, the effects of clarity vary over time. Clarity mattered especially, but not exclusively during Alan Greenspans Chairmanship. Overall, the analysis illustrates the importance of transparent communication on monetary policy.

When Does the General Public Lose Trust in Banks

When does the general public lose trust in banks? We provide empirical evidence using responses by Dutch survey participants to eight hypothetical scenarios. We find that members of the general public care strongly about executive compensation. Negative media reports, falling stock prices, and opaque product information also affect trust in banks. Experiencing a bank bailout leads to less concern about government intervention, while experience of a bank failure leads to greater concern on bonuses.

The Rose-Colored Glasses of Homeowners

Based on annual household surveys between 2003 and 2012, we show that owners have a rosy picture of their current house value and hold optimistic views on the historical and expected change in house value compared to general price trends. Optimism is both driven by loss aversion and an endowment effect as overestimation of the house value is positively related to the mortgage loan-to-value ratio and tenure of the owner-occupier. After several years of national declines in house prices, the estimates in our sample have become more realistic but the glasses of homeowners remain rose-colored. Even groups of homeowners that are arguably well-informed, e.g. homeowners with moving plans and homeowners that are in charge of household finances, overestimate the value of their house.

Is a Word to the Wise Indeed Enough? ECB Statements and the Predictability of Interest Rate Decisions

We show that comments by euro area central bankers contain information on future ECB interest rate decisions, but that the comments mainly reflect recent developments in macroeconomic variables. Furthermore, models using only communication variables are outperformed by straightforward Taylor rule models. During the first years of the European Economic and Monetary Union, comments by ECB Executive Board members and high-level Bundesbank policy-makers were more informative than comments by national central bank presidents. We also find that differences of opinion were informative when they concerned the outlook for economic growth. Finally, our results suggest that the ECB used communication especially to signal interest rate increases.

Communication About Future Policy Rates in Theory and Practice: A Survey

We discuss the theoretical rationale for central bank communication about future policy rates as part of inflation targeting or of forward guidance. We also summarize actual central bank communication about future policy rates in major advanced countries as well as empirical evidence on the effectiveness of both types of communication. We argue that there is a disconnect between the theory and practice of forward guidance, with theory assuming commitment by the central bank, while in practice central banks generally do not commit. Future theoretical research on forward guidance should therefore take the absence of commitment by central banks into account.

The Pitch Rather than the Pit: Investor Inattention During FIFA World Cup Matches

At the 2010 FIFA World Cup in South Africa, many soccer matches were played during stock market trading hours, providing us with a natural experiment to analyze fluctuations in investor attention. Using minute-by-minute trading data for fifteen international stock exchanges, we present three key findings. First, when the national team was playing, the number of trades dropped by 45%, while volumes were 55% lower. Second, market activity was influenced by match events. For instance, a goal caused an additional drop in trading activity by 5%. The magnitude of this reduction resembles what is observed during lunchtime, and as such might not be indicative for shifts in attention. However, our third finding is that the comovement between national and global stock market returns decreased by over 20% during World Cup matches, whereas no comparable decoupling can be found during lunchtime. We conclude that stock markets were following developments on the soccer pitch rather than in the trading pit, leading to a changed price formation process. JEL Classification: G12, G14, G15