Carl J. Schreck

Large-Scale Atmospheric and Oceanic Conditions during the 2011–12 DYNAMO Field Campaign

AbstractAn international field campaign, Dynamics of the Madden Julian Oscillation (DYNAMO), took place in the Indian Ocean during October 2011–March 2012 to collect observations for the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), especially its convective initiation processes. The large-scale atmospheric and oceanic conditions during the campaign are documented here. The ENSO and the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) states, the monthly mean monsoon circulation and its associated precipitation, humidity, vertical and meridional/zonal overturning cells, and ocean surface currents are discussed. The evolution of MJO events is described using various fields and indices that have been used to subdivide the campaign into three periods. These periods were 1) 17 September–8 December 2011 (period 1), which featured two robust MJO events that circumnavigated the global tropics with a period of less than 45 days; 2) 9 December 2011–31 January 2012, which contained less coherent activity (period 2); and 3) 1 February–12 April 2012, a...

Contributions of Convectively Coupled Equatorial Rossby Waves and Kelvin Waves to the Real-Time Multivariate MJO Indices

Abstract The real-time multivariate (RMM) Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) indices have been widely applied to diagnose and track the progression of the MJO. Although it has been well demonstrated that the MJO contributes to the leading signals in these indices, the RMM indices vary erratically from day to day. These variations are associated with noise in the outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and wind data used to generate the indices. This note demonstrates that some of this “noise” evolves systematically and is associated with other types of propagating modes that project onto the RMM eigenmodes. OLR and zonal wind data are filtered in the wavenumber–frequency domain for the MJO, convectively coupled equatorial Rossby (ER) waves, and convectively coupled Kelvin waves. The filtered data are then projected onto the RMM modes. An example phase space associated with these projections is presented. Linear regression is then applied to isolate the wave signals from random variations in the same bands of the w...

A Modified Multivariate Madden–Julian Oscillation Index Using Velocity Potential

AbstractA new Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) index is developed from a combined empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of meridionally averaged 200-hPa velocity potential (VP200), 200-hPa zonal wind (U200), and 850-hPa zonal wind (U850). Like the Wheeler–Hendon Real-time Multivariate MJO (RMM) index, which was developed in the same way except using outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data instead of VP200, daily data are projected onto the leading pair of EOFs to produce the two-component index. This new index is called the velocity potential MJO (VPM) indices and its properties are quantitatively compared to RMM. Compared to the RMM index, the VPM index detects larger-amplitude MJO-associated signals during boreal summer. This includes a slightly stronger and more coherent modulation of Atlantic tropical cyclones. This result is attributed to the fact that velocity potential preferentially emphasizes the planetary-scale aspects of the divergent circulation, thereby spreading the convectively driven ...

A Global View of Equatorial Waves and Tropical Cyclogenesis

AbstractThis study investigates the number of tropical cyclone formations that can be attributed to the enhanced convection from equatorial waves within each basin. Tropical depression (TD)-type disturbances (i.e., easterly waves) were the primary tropical cyclone precursors over the Northern Hemisphere basins, particularly the eastern North Pacific and the Atlantic. In the Southern Hemisphere, however, the number of storms attributed to TD-type disturbances and equatorial Rossby waves were roughly equivalent. Equatorward of 20°N, tropical cyclones formed without any equatorial wave precursor most often over the eastern North Pacific and least often over the western North Pacific.The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) was an important tropical cyclone precursor over the north Indian, south Indian, and western North Pacific basins. The MJO also affected tropical cyclogenesis by modulating the amplitudes of higher-frequency waves. Each wave type reached the attribution threshold 1.5 times more often, and tropi...

Attributing Tropical Cyclogenesis to Equatorial Waves in the Western North Pacific

Abstract Tropical cyclogenesis is attributed to an equatorial wave when the filtered rainfall anomaly exceeds a threshold value at the genesis location. It is argued that 0 mm day−1 (simply requiring a positive anomaly) is too small a threshold because unrelated noise can produce a positive anomaly. A threshold of 6 mm day−1 is too large because two-thirds of storms would have no precursor disturbance. Between these extremes, consistent results are found for a range of thresholds from 2 to 4 mm day−1. Roughly twice as many tropical cyclones are attributed to tropical depression (TD)-type disturbances as to equatorial Rossby waves, mixed Rossby–gravity waves, or Kelvin waves. The influence of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) is even smaller. The use of variables such as vorticity and vertical wind shear in other studies gives a larger contribution for the MJO. It is suggested that its direct influence on the rainfall in forming tropical cyclones is less than for other variables. The impacts of tropical ...

Tropical Cyclogenesis Associated with Kelvin Waves and the Madden–Julian Oscillation

AbstractThe Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) influences tropical cyclone formation around the globe. Convectively coupled Kelvin waves are often embedded within the MJO, but their role in tropical cyclogenesis remains uncertain. This case study identifies the influences of the MJO and a series of Kelvin waves on the formation of two tropical cyclones.Typhoons Rammasun and Chataan developed in the western North Pacific on 28 June 2002. Two weeks earlier, conditions had been unfavorable for tropical cyclogenesis because of uniform trade easterlies and a lack of organized convection. The easterlies gave way to equatorial westerlies as the convective envelope of the Madden–Julian oscillation moved into the region. A series of three Kelvin waves modulated the development of the westerlies. Cyclonic potential vorticity (PV) developed in a strip between the growing equatorial westerlies and the persistent trade easterlies farther poleward. Rammasun and Chataan emerged from the apparent breakdown of this strip.The...

The Impact of Best Track Discrepancies on Global Tropical Cyclone Climatologies using IBTrACS

AbstractUsing the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS), the climatology of tropical cyclones is compared between two global best track datasets: 1) the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) subset of IBTrACS (IBTrACS-WMO) and 2) a combination of data from the National Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (NHC+JTWC). Comparing the climatologies between IBTrACS-WMO and NHC+JTWC highlights some of the heterogeneities inherent in these datasets for the period of global satellite coverage 1981–2010. The results demonstrate the sensitivity of these climatologies to the choice of best track dataset. Previous studies have examined best track heterogeneities in individual regions, usually the North Atlantic and west Pacific. This study puts those regional issues into their global context. The differences between NHC+JTWC and IBTrACS-WMO are greatest in the west Pacific, where the strongest storms are substantially weaker in IBTrACS-WMO. These disparities strongly af...

A Case Study of an Outbreak of Twin Tropical Cyclones

Abstract Previous studies have found that twin tropical cyclogenesis typically occurs 2–3 times a year in the Pacific Ocean. During October 1997, however, three sets of twin tropical cyclones developed in the central Pacific within a single month. Tropical cyclone archives indicate that this is the only such outbreak from 1969 to 2006. This case study explores the background and synoptic conditions that led to this unique event. All three twin tropical cyclogenesis events occurred within a broad and long-lasting envelope of warm water, low surface pressure, active convection, and weak or easterly vertical shear. Westerly winds at the equator and trade easterlies farther poleward created strips of cyclonic vorticity through a deep layer. A low-pass filter showed that these favorable conditions shifted eastward with time at 1–2 m s−1. In addition to the gradual eastward movement, the equatorial westerlies and convection were modulated by higher-frequency westward propagation. These anomalies appear to have ...

Identifying the MJO, Equatorial Waves, and Their Impacts Using 32 Years of HIRS Upper-Tropospheric Water Vapor

AbstractThe Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) and convectively coupled equatorial waves are the dominant modes of synoptic-to-subseasonal variability in the tropics. These systems have frequently been examined with proxies for convection such as outgoing longwave radiation (OLR). However, upper-tropospheric water vapor (UTWV) gives a more complete picture of tropical circulations because it is more sensitive to the drying and warming associated with subsidence. Previous studies examined tropical variability using relatively short (3–7 yr) UTWV datasets. Intersatellite calibration of data from the High Resolution Infrared Radiation Sounder (HIRS) has recently produced a homogeneous 32-yr climate data record of UTWV for 200–500 hPa. This study explores the utility of HIRS UTWV for identifying the MJO and equatorial waves.Spectral analysis shows that the MJO and equatorial waves stand out above the low-frequency background in UTWV, similar to previous findings with OLR. The fraction of variance associated with...

Impacts of Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves on Environmental Conditions for Atlantic Tropical Cyclogenesis

AbstractHigh-amplitude convectively coupled equatorial atmospheric Kelvin waves (CCKWs) are explored over the tropical Atlantic during the boreal summer (1989–2009). Focus is given to the atmospheric environmental conditions that are important for tropical cyclogenesis.CCKWs are characterized by deep westerly vertical wind shear to the east of its convectively active phase and easterly vertical wind shear to the west of it. This dynamical signature increases vertical wind shear over the western tropical Atlantic ahead of the convectively active phase, and reduces vertical wind shear after its passage. The opposite is true over the eastern tropical Atlantic where the climatological vertical wind shear is easterly.Positive total column water vapor (TCWV) anomalies progress eastward with the convectively active phase of the CCKW, whereas negative TCWV anomalies progress eastward with the convectively suppressed phase. During the passage of the convectively active phase of the CCKW, a zonally oriented strip o...