Jesse E. Bell

Consequences of More Extreme Precipitation Regimes for Terrestrial Ecosystems

ABSTRACT Amplification of the hydrological cycle as a consequence of global warming is forecast to lead to more extreme intra-annual precipitation regimes characterized by larger rainfall events and longer intervals between events. We present a conceptual framework, based on past investigations and ecological theory, for predicting the consequences of this underappreciated aspect of climate change. We consider a broad range of terrestrial ecosystems that vary in their overall water balance. More extreme rainfall regimes are expected to increase the duration and severity of soil water stress in mesic ecosystems as intervals between rainfall events increase. In contrast, xeric ecosystems may exhibit the opposite response to extreme events. Larger but less frequent rainfall events may result in proportional reductions in evaporative losses in xeric systems, and thus may lead to greater soil water availability. Hydric (wetland) ecosystems are predicted to experience reduced periods of anoxia in response to prolonged intervals between rainfall events. Understanding these contingent effects of ecosystem water balance is necessary for predicting how more extreme precipitation regimes will modify ecosystem processes and alter interactions with related global change drivers.

U.S. Climate Reference Network after One Decade of Operations: Status and Assessment

The year 2012 marks a decade of observations undertaken by the U.S. Climate Reference Network (USCRN) under the auspices of NOAAs National Climatic Data Center and Atmospheric Turbulence and Diffusion Division. The network consists of 114 sites across the conterminous 48 states, with additional sites in Alaska and Hawaii. Stations are installed in open (where possible), rural sites very likely to have stable land-cover/use conditions for several decades to come. At each site a suite of meteorological parameters are monitored, including triple redundancy for the primary air temperature and precipitation variables and for soil moisture/temperature. Instrumentation is regularly calibrated to National Institute for Standards and Technology (NIST) standards and maintained by a staff of expert engineers. This attention to detail in USCRN is intended to ensure the creation of an unimpeachable record of changes in surface climate over the United States for decades to come. Data are made available without restric...

U.S. Climate Reference Network Soil Moisture and Temperature Observations

AbstractThe U.S. Climate Reference Network (USCRN) is a network of climate-monitoring stations maintained and operated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to provide climate-science-quality measurements of air temperature and precipitation. The stations in the network were designed to be extensible to other missions, and the National Integrated Drought Information System program determined that the USCRN could be augmented to provide observations that are more drought relevant. To increase the network’s capability of monitoring soil processes and drought, soil observations were added to USCRN instrumentation. In 2011, the USCRN team completed at each USCRN station in the conterminous United States the installation of triplicate-configuration soil moisture and soil temperature probes at five standards depths (5, 10, 20, 50, and 100 cm) as prescribed by the World Meteorological Organization; in addition, the project included the installation of a relative humidity sensor at each of...

Ecohydrological responses to multifactor global change in a tallgrass prairie: A modeling analysis

[1] Relative impacts of multiple global change factors on ecohydrological processes in terrestrial ecosystems have not been carefully studied. In this study, we used a terrestrial ecosystem (TECO) model to examine effects of three global change factors (i.e., climate warming, elevated CO2, and altered precipitation) individually and in combination on runoff, evaporation, transpiration, rooting zone soil moisture content, water use efficiency (WUE), and rain use efficiency (RUE) in a North American tallgrass prairie. We conducted a total of 200 different scenarios with gradual changes of the three factors for 100 years. Our modeling results show strong responses of runoff, evaporation, transpiration, and rooting zone soil moisture to changes in temperature and precipitation, while effects of CO2 changes were relatively minor. For example, runoff decreased by 50% with a 10°C increase in temperature and increased by 250% with doubled precipitation. Ecosystem‐level RUE increased with CO2, decreased with precipitation, and optimized at 4–6°C of warming. In contrast, plant‐level WUE was highest at doubled CO2, doubled precipitation, and ambient temperature. The different response patterns of RUE and WUE signify that processes at different scales responded uniquely to climate change. Combinations of temperature, CO2, and precipitation anomalies interactively affected response magnitude and/or patterns of ecohydrological processes. Our results suggest that ecohydrological processes were considerably affected by global change factors and then likely regulate other ecosystem processes, such as carbon and nitrogen cycling. In particular, substantial changes in runoff to different climate change scenarios could have policy implications because it is a major component to replenishing freshwater. These modeling results should be tested by and could influence design of field experiments on ecohydrological processes.

The Mental Health Outcomes of Drought: A Systematic Review and Causal Process Diagram.

Little is understood about the long term, indirect health consequences of drought (a period of abnormally dry weather). In particular, the implications of drought for mental health via pathways such as loss of livelihood, diminished social support, and rupture of place bonds have not been extensively studied, leaving a knowledge gap for practitioners and researchers alike. A systematic review of literature was performed to examine the mental health effects of drought. The systematic review results were synthesized to create a causal process diagram that illustrates the pathways linking drought effects to mental health outcomes. Eighty-two articles using a variety of methods in different contexts were gathered from the systematic review. The pathways in the causal process diagram with greatest support in the literature are those focusing on the economic and migratory effects of drought. The diagram highlights the complexity of the relationships between drought and mental health, including the multiple ways that factors can interact and lead to various outcomes. The systematic review and resulting causal process diagram can be used in both practice and theory, including prevention planning, public health programming, vulnerability and risk assessment, and research question guidance. The use of a causal process diagram provides a much needed avenue for integrating the findings of diverse research to further the understanding of the mental health implications of drought.

Relating Coccidioidomycosis (Valley Fever) Incidence to Soil Moisture Conditions

Abstract Coccidioidomycosis (also called Valley fever) is caused by a soilborne fungus, Coccidioides spp., in arid regions of the southwestern United States. Though some who develop infections from this fungus remain asymptomatic, others develop respiratory disease as a consequence. Less commonly, severe illness and death can occur when the infection spreads to other regions of the body. Previous analyses have attempted to connect the incidence of coccidioidomycosis to broadly available climatic measurements, such as precipitation or temperature. However, with the limited availability of long‐term, in situ soil moisture data sets, it has not been feasible to perform a direct analysis of the relationships between soil moisture levels and coccidioidomycosis incidence on a larger temporal and spatial scale. Utilizing in situ soil moisture gauges throughout the southwest from the U.S. Climate Reference Network and a model with which to extend those estimates, this work connects periods of higher and lower soil moisture in Arizona and California between 2002 and 2014 to the reported incidence of coccidioidomycosis. The results indicate that in both states, coccidioidomycosis incidence is related to soil moisture levels from previous summers and falls. Stated differently, a higher number of coccidioidomycosis cases are likely to be reported if previous bands of months have been atypically wet or dry, depending on the location.

Exposure science in an age of rapidly changing climate: challenges and opportunities

Climate change is anticipated to alter the production, use, release, and fate of environmental chemicals, likely leading to increased uncertainty in exposure and human health risk predictions. Exposure science provides a key connection between changes in climate and associated health outcomes. The theme of the 2015 Annual Meeting of the International Society of Exposure Science—Exposures in an Evolving Environment—brought this issue to the fore. By directing attention to questions that may affect society in profound ways, exposure scientists have an opportunity to conduct “consequential science”—doing science that matters, using our tools for the greater good and to answer key policy questions, and identifying causes leading to implementation of solutions. Understanding the implications of changing exposures on public health may be one of the most consequential areas of study in which exposure scientists could currently be engaged. In this paper, we use a series of case studies to identify exposure data gaps and research paths that will enable us to capture the information necessary for understanding climate change-related human exposures and consequent health impacts. We hope that paper will focus attention on under-developed areas of exposure science that will likely have broad implications for public health.

An Evaluation of the North American Regional Reanalysis Simulated Soil Moisture Conditions during the 2011–13 Drought Period

AbstractAccurate and timely information on soil moisture conditions is an important component to effectively prepare for the damaging aspects of hydrological extremes. The combination of sparsely dense in situ networks and shallow observation depths of remotely sensed soil moisture conditions often force local and regional decision-makers to rely on numerical methods when assessing the current soil state. In this study, soil moisture from a commonly used, high-resolution reanalysis dataset is compared to observations from the U.S. Climate Reference Network (USCRN). The purpose of this study is to evaluate how well the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) captured the evolution, intensity, and spatial extent of the 2012 drought using both raw volumetric values and standardized anomalies of soil moisture. Comparisons revealed that despite a dry precipitation bias of 22% nationally, NARR had predominantly wetter 5-cm volumetric soil conditions over the growing season (April–September) than observed at U...

Calculation and Evaluation of an Air-Freezing Index for the 1981–2010 Climate Normals Period in the Coterminous United States

AbstractThe air-freezing index (AFI) is a common metric for determining the freezing severity of the winter season and estimating frost depth for midlatitude regions, which is useful for determining the depth of shallow foundation construction. AFI values represent the seasonal magnitude and duration of below-freezing air temperature. Departures of the daily mean temperature above or below 0°C (32°F) are accumulated over each August–July cold season; the seasonal AFI value is defined as the difference between the highest and lowest extrema points. Return periods are computed using generalized extreme value distribution analysis. This research replaces the methodology used by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration to calculate AFI return periods for the 1951–80 time period, applying the new methodology to the 1981–2010 climate normals period. Seasonal AFI values and return period values were calculated for 5600 stations across the coterminous United States (CONUS), and the results were validat...

Changes in extreme events and the potential impacts on human health

ABSTRACT Extreme weather and climate-related events affect human health by causing death, injury, and illness, as well as having large socioeconomic impacts. Climate change has caused changes in extreme event frequency, intensity, and geographic distribution, and will continue to be a driver for change in the future. Some of these events include heat waves, droughts, wildfires, dust storms, flooding rains, coastal flooding, storm surges, and hurricanes. The pathways connecting extreme events to health outcomes and economic losses can be diverse and complex. The difficulty in predicting these relationships comes from the local societal and environmental factors that affect disease burden. More information is needed about the impacts of climate change on public health and economies to effectively plan for and adapt to climate change. This paper describes some of the ways extreme events are changing and provides examples of the potential impacts on human health and infrastructure. It also identifies key research gaps to be addressed to improve the resilience of public health to extreme events in the future. Implications: Extreme weather and climate events affect human health by causing death, injury, and illness, as well as having large socioeconomic impacts. Climate change has caused changes in extreme event frequency, intensity, and geographic distribution, and will continue to be a driver for change in the future. Some of these events include heat waves, droughts, wildfires, flooding rains, coastal flooding, surges, and hurricanes. The pathways connecting extreme events to health outcomes and economic losses can be diverse and complex. The difficulty in predicting these relationships comes from the local societal and environmental factors that affect disease burden.