Carl Martin Allwood

Stability and variability in the realism of confidence judgments over time, content domain, and gender

This study investigates the influence on the realism of confidence judgments of four different factors, the individual, the knowledge domain (crystallized and fluid intelligence), gender and cognitive style (Need-for-Cognition, NfC). Seventy-nine high-school students answered questions on word knowledge (WORD) and logical/spatial ability (DTK); both tests were administered on three occasions with two weeks between each trial. After each test question, each individual gave a confidence rating of his or her answer. The results showed some, but not perfect, individual stability. Furthermore, within-subject differences were found between domains (WORD/DTK); the participants showed better calibration and less overconfidence for the WORD-test as compared to the DTK-test. No stable gender differences were found for any of the two tests. Finally, the results show that having high NfC is not associated with better realism in confidence judgments. These results suggest that the realism of confidence judgments is, at least on the distal level, influenced by many different factors.

IT and strategic decision making

A total of 41 top executive managers in large organizations/enterprises were interviewed about factors affecting their demands on, attitudes towards and use of, information and communication technology (ICT) when making strategic decisions in their work. Poor knowledge management, i.e. poor possibilities to store, reuse, and share knowledge in an organized and disciplined way due to inefficient ICT, was reported to be an obstacle in supporting the decision‐making process effectively. Problems with accessibility, accuracy and trust of the information in the ICT‐systems were prevalent. Furthermore, ICT did not provide much help with respect to the necessary social interactions in the decision‐making process. Implications of these findings are discussed for the design of future decision‐support systems.

The Cognitive Interview: Effects on the realism in witnesses’ confidence in their free recall

Abstract This study compared the realism of witnesses’ confidence judgments of their own recall elicited in either the Cognitive Interview (CI) or the Structured Interview (SI). Calibration methodology was used to analyse the realism of the confidence judgments. Participants (N=56) were interviewed about their observations of a staged crime and returned 2 weeks later to assess their confidence in the statements. The CI, as in previous research, rendered a significantly higher number of correct recalled units compared with the SI. In both interview conditions the witnesses displayed a high level of accuracy and confidence. In addition, a very good level of calibration and very low overconfidence was found in the witnesses’ confidence judgments. No difference was found between the CI and SI in terms of the realism of the witnesses’ confidence judgments, as measured by level of calibration or under/overconfidence. Furthermore, the CI and the SI did not differ with respect to the witnesses’ estimations of the total number of correctly recalled items. It is suggested that the good realism found in these measures is due to the fact that witnesses assessed their confidence in items they had chosen to report of their own accord.

Response selection strategies and realism of confidence judgments

Abstract Two studies were conducted to examine how response selection strategy is related to confidence ratings and to performance on general knowledge questions. In both studies subjects were asked to answer 80 general knowledge questions and to rate their confidence in the correctness of the answer selected. A pilot study, in which subjects thought aloud while answering general knowledge questions, was carried out to identify different response selection strategies. In the first study, 40 subjects were asked to indicate which of four strategies (immediate recognition, inference, intuition, or guessing) they used for selecting an answer. In Study 2, think aloud reports from 20 subjects were coded into the same four strategies. The distribution of strategies differed between the studies, but there were very similar relations among strategy, confidence, and correctness of answer in the two studies. Response selection strategy was related to correctness of answer when confidence was partialed out. More specifically, immediate recognition was associated with higher proportion correct than with the other strategies. It was also found that ratings of how difficult the knowledge questions were to fellow students of the subjects were on a much more realistic level than the confidence ratings were. It is concluded that people could improve their confidence judgments by taking into account (a) how difficult a question is to other people, and (b) the response selection strategy used for answering the question.

Decision making: Social and creative dimensions

This volume presents research that integrates decision making and creativity within the social contexts in which these processes occur. The volume is an essential addition to and expansion of recent approaches to decision making. Such approaches attempt to incorporate more of the psychological and socio-cultural context in which human decision making takes place. The authors come from different disciplines and also belong to a broad spectrum of research traditions. They present innovative chapters dealing with both theoretical and empirical aspects of decision making in different personal and organizational contexts. All chapters are written from the perspective that human decision making is inherently social and more or less creative. The volume addresses fundamental questions about the nature of human decision making as it occurs in different social contexts. Thereby, it becomes essential reading for researchers in decision making and for advanced students in psychology, management science, informatics, and related disciplines.

THE COGNITIVE INTERVIEW AND ITS EFFECT ON WITNESSES’ CONFIDENCE

Today there is ample evidence that the Cognitive Interview (CI) enhances witnesses’ memory. However, less is known about how the CI affects eyewitnesses’ confidence. To address this shortcoming we conducted a study analyzing how realism in confidence was affected by the CI. All participants (n=79) were first shown a filmed kidnapping. After 2 weeks we interviewed one-third of the participants according to the guidelines of the CI, one-third according to a Standard Interview (SI), and one-third were not interviewed at all (Control condition). Participants in all three conditions were then asked to answer 45 forced-choice questions, and to give a confidence judgment after each choice. For the 45 questions, no differences in accuracy were found between the three conditions. Confidence was higher in the CI and SI conditions, compared with the Control condition. CI and SI did not differ in metacognitive realism but both showed lower realism compared with the Control condition, although only CI significantly so. The results indicate that the inflation in confidence is more likely to be explained in terms of a reiteration effect, than as a consequence of the particular mnemonics characterizing the CI (e.g. “mental reinstatement of context”). In sum, CI does not seem to impair (or improve) the realism in witnesses’ confidence, and does not inflate confidence in erroneous recall, compared to a SI.

Conceptions of Computers among Students in China and Sweden.

Abstract This article examines the conceptions Chinese and Swedish psychology and computer science students have of computers. The results show differences in conceptions between the countries, but not between study areas. The Chinese students were somewhat more optimistic about the effect of computers on society than were the Swedish students. However, this result was not consistent for all relevant items in the questionnaire. Other results show that humans and computers appeared more similar for the Chinese students than for the Swedish students. The results are discussed in general theoretical terms as well as from a practical perspective concerning how the differences found may affect the computer implementation process.

The Realism in Older People's Confidence Judgments of Answers to General Knowledge Questions

The study investigated 2 aspects of the accuracy (i.e., realism) of confidence judgments of persons age 60-93 years (N = 1,384) regarding their answers to general knowledge questions. These aspects are the level of confidence (calibration) in relation to the proportion of correct answers and the ability to discriminate between correct and incorrect answers by means of confidence judgments. No age differences were found for either of the 2 aspects. Gender differences were found for proportion of correct answers and confidence but not for the realism in the confidence judgments.

On the Foundation of the Indigenous Psychologies

Scientific indigenous psychologies have been developed mostly in non‐western countries. Indigenous psychologies, seeing mainstream psychology as too western in its cultural foundation, are based on the culture of the society being investigated. In this article I critique the concept of culture used by representative researchers of indigenous psychologies in the English‐language literature and contrast it to current concepts of culture in the social sciences. Furthermore, I argue that the concept of culture used in this literature has implications for the cultural contents that are identified as the culture of a specific society. I also suggest that the political dimensions of what contents of culture are associated with a specific society are not given sufficient attention in this literature. Finally, alternative approaches to culture for the indigenous psychologies are discussed.

Virtual Reality As a New Tool in the City Planning Process

The introduction of virtual reality (VR)-models in the city planning process will cause changes in the traditional roles of the involved parties. In order to better understand some of these changes, the events involving the use of VR-models in an architectural competition concerning rebuilding-proposals for the city library in a Swedish city were analyzed. The study shows that VR was introduced into the competition as an extra add-on and that the VR-presentation was experienced as useful by the jury. The transformation of the architects’ contributions into VR was experienced as problematic by the architects, partly because they lost full control over the presentation. In the future architects are likely to have to produce the VR-models for their proposals themselves. This may make it more difficult for smaller architectural firms to enter the market but their proposals will be more accessible to a wider group of stakeholders.