Carla Roncoli

Forecast Skill and Farmers' Skills: Seasonal Climate Forecasts and Agricultural Risk Management in the Southeastern United States

During the last 10 yr, research on seasonal climate forecasts as an agricultural risk management tool has pursued three directions: modeling potential impacts and responses, identifying opportunities and constraints, and analyzing risk communication aspects. Most of these approaches tend to frame seasonal climate forecasts as a discrete product with direct and linear effects. In contrast, the authors propose that agricultural management is a performative process, constituted by a combination of planning, experimentation, and improvisation and drawing on a mix of technical expertise, situated knowledge, cumulative experience, and intuitive skill as farmers navigate a myriad of risks in the pursuit of livelihood goals and economic opportunities. This study draws on ethnographic interviews conducted with 38 family farmers in southern Georgia, examining their livelihood goals and social values, strategies for managing risk, and interactions with weather and climate information, specifically their responses to seasonal climate forecasts. Findings highlight the social nature of information processing and risk management, indicating that both material conditions and valuebased attitudes bear upon the ways farmers may integrate climate predictions into their agricultural management practices. These insights translate into specific recommendations that will enhance the salience, credibility, and legitimacy of seasonal climate forecasts among farmers and will promote the incorporation of such information into a skillful performance in the face of climate uncertainty.

Participatory processes and climate forecast use: Socio-cultural context, discussion, and consensus

Participatory processes are increasingly promoted by various groups as among the best approaches to increase efficiency, democracy and equity in decisions involving climate forecasts. Yet little is understood about the interaction between participation and its surrounding socio-cultural environment in the context of the dissemination and use of climate forecasts. This article draws on two case studies: water allocation choices in Brazil and agricultural decision making in Uganda. The focus is on two under-studied aspects of participatory processes: (1) the social norms of interactions that affect activity and outcomes through exclusion, pre-meetings, alliances, language and non-linguistic events; and (2) the diversity of goals and outcomes that motivate participation, including desire for consensus, social networking and community building. These norms and goals often result in behaviours and outcomes unanticipated by the promoters. We argue that the influence of socio-cultural context on the process is not only an unavoidable characteristic of participation, but also what makes it possible in the first place, bringing meaning and purpose to the activity for many participants.

Integrated Assessment of Artisanal and Small-Scale Gold Mining in Ghana — Part 3: Social Sciences and Economics

This article is one of three synthesis reports resulting from an integrated assessment (IA) of artisanal and small-scale gold mining (ASGM) in Ghana. Given the complexities that involve multiple drivers and diverse disciplines influencing ASGM, an IA framework was used to analyze economic, social, health, and environmental data and to co-develop evidence-based responses in collaboration with pertinent stakeholders. We look at both micro- and macro-economic processes surrounding ASGM, including causes, challenges, and consequences. At the micro-level, social and economic evidence suggests that the principal reasons whereby most people engage in ASGM involve “push” factors aimed at meeting livelihood goals. ASGM provides an important source of income for both proximate and distant communities, representing a means of survival for impoverished farmers as well as an engine for small business growth. However, miners and their families often end up in a “poverty trap” of low productivity and indebtedness, which reduce even further their economic options. At a macro level, Ghana’s ASGM activities contribute significantly to the national economy even though they are sometimes operating illegally and at a disadvantage compared to large-scale industrial mining companies. Nevertheless, complex issues of land tenure, social stability, mining regulation and taxation, and environmental degradation undermine the viability and sustainability of ASGM as a livelihood strategy. Although more research is needed to understand these complex relationships, we point to key findings and insights from social science and economics research that can guide policies and actions aimed to address the unique challenges of ASGM in Ghana and elsewhere.

Climate Change Adaptation Assets and Group-Based Approaches: Gendered Perceptions from Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Mali, and Kenya

Using a participatory rural appraisal approach, a series of qualitative studies were conducted in four countries facing negative impacts of climate change—Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Kenya and Mali—in order to determine men’s and women’s perceptions of climate change, adaptive approaches, and the degree to which assets and group participation play a role in adaptation strategies. Similarities were found across countries in terms of perceptions of climate change, impacts, and strategies for adaptation. Farmers and pastoralists, groups heavily dependent on natural resources, are starkly aware of and impacted by subtle climatic changes, and those with a stronger asset base were better able to adapt to changes and shocks.

From Management to Negotiation: Technical and Institutional Innovations for Integrated Water Resource Management in the Upper Comoé River Basin, Burkina Faso

This study focuses on the potential role of technical and institutional innovations for improving water management in a multi-user context in Burkina Faso. We focus on a system centered on three reservoirs that capture the waters of the Upper Comoé River Basin and servicing a diversity of users, including a sugar manufacturing company, a urban water supply utility, a farmer cooperative, and other downstream users. Due to variable and declining rainfall and expanding users’ needs, drastic fluctuations in water supply and demand occur during each dry season. A decision support tool was developed through participatory research to enable users to assess the impact of alternative release and diversion schedules on deficits faced by each user. The tool is meant to be applied in the context of consultative planning by a local user committee that has been created by a new national integrated water management policy. We contend that both solid science and good governance are instrumental in realizing efficient and equitable water management and adaptation to climate variability and change. But, while modeling tools and negotiation platforms may assist users in managing climate risk, they also introduce additional uncertainties into the deliberative process. It is therefore imperative to understand how these technological and institutional innovations frame water use issues and decisions to ensure that such framing is consistent with the goals of integrated water resource management.

Stochastic Programming for Improved Multiuse Reservoir Operation in Burkina Faso, West Africa

AbstractA network of reservoirs and diversion structures in the Comoe River Basin in southwestern Burkina Faso, West Africa, provides municipal water supply and irrigation for sugarcane agribusiness and downstream farmers. The region is characterized by severe intraseasonal and inter-annual variability of precipitation and reservoir inflows. Reservoir operations are generally conservative, even during relatively wet years. A stochastic decision support tool (DST) is described which translates a scenario-tree of streamflow and precipitation forecasts, conditionally weighted by a tercile seasonal precipitation forecast, into optimal release schedules for the upcoming year. It is shown that the DST coupled with the seasonal precipitation forecasts may provide more efficient and equitable release decisions that benefit the variety of stakeholders in the basin.

Who counts, what counts: representation and accountability in water governance in the Upper Comoé sub‐basin, Burkina Faso

This article examines the unfolding of integrated water resource management (IWRM) reforms in southwest Burkina Faso, where water resources are subject to conflicting claims by a diversity of users. We first describe the establishment a local water user committee, showing how choices regarding composition and operations grant varying levels of recognition to different stakeholders. We then discuss the implications for key dimensions of decentralized governance, namely representation and accountability. In particular we focus on: (a) how the interplay of political agendas and policy disconnects shapes the committees viability and credibility and (b) how tensions between techno-scientific and local knowledge affect participation and transparency. We argue that in contexts defined by contentious politics and neo-patrimonial practices, representativeness is better ensured by the direct inclusion of user groups rather than elected officials. Though limited discretionary power, information access, and technical capabilities of committee members inhibit accountability, rural producers uphold their claims through social mobilization and reliance on local knowledge. Recognizing the opportunities offered by the countrys recent democratic turn, we formulate recommendations aimed at addressing structural drivers and enabling citizen agency in decentralized water governance. At the same time, further research is needed on local peoples understandings of representation and accountability, to ensure that they are involved in institutional design and practices in ways that affirm what they value and what they know.

The art of the science: Climate forecasts for wildfire management in the southeastern United States

This article illustrates how a wildfire risk forecast evolved iteratively based on stakeholder consultations. An assessment based on phone interviews indicates that such forecasts can assist fire management decisions, such as deployment of human, financial, and material resources and management of forest, timber, and habitats, and public safety. But careful attention to communication, collaboration, and capacity building is key to realizing this potential.

Climate Variability in West Africa: A Case Study in Vulnerability and Adaptation on the Northern Central Plateau, Burkina Faso

Abstract Purpose This chapter presents a case study on smallholder vulnerability and adaptation to long-term desiccation in the West African Sahel. Climatologists recognize Sahelian desiccation as a long-term multi-decadal dry period that persisted from roughly 1968 to 1995. This study draws on fine-scale ethnographic and daily rainfall data to elucidate local perspectives on this broad regional process. As such, this provides a window on the local lived experience of regional climate variability. Methodology/approach This study draws on multiple periods of ethnographic fieldwork in two different Mossi areas in north-central Burkina Faso (West Africa). Fieldwork consisted of key informant interviews, household surveys, and participant observation. The authors incorporate daily precipitation data from two meteorological stations provided by the General Directorate of Meteorology of Burkina Faso. Researchers assembled this data and graphed daily rainfall totals for individual rainfall seasons in the years preceding each period of fieldwork. The qualitative and quantitative data are analyzed by using a Sustainable Livelihoods (SL) framework. Findings The study finds that local perceptions of increased rainfall variability correspond to patterns evident in daily rainfall records for individual stations. Additionally, the authors document how rural producers are negatively affected by both intra-seasonal and multi-decadal rainfall variability. Mossi smallholders have adapted through new cropping patterns, livelihood diversification, and investments in agricultural intensification. These adaptations have been largely successful and could be adopted by other Sahelian groups in their efforts to adapt to climate change. Research limitations Fieldwork took place over several years in two different departments and five localities. The two anthropologists used a common livelihoods analytical framework but different research protocols over this time span. Thus, the data collection was not systematic across all locations and time periods. This limits the degree to which results are representative beyond surveyed localities at their respective points in time. Originality/value This study presents local views and perceptions of regional climate variability and ecological change. It is a rare bottom-up perspective supplemented with precipitation data.