Paul Kirshen

Opportunities and constraints for farmers of West Africa to use seasonal precipitation forecasts with Burkina Faso as a case study

Abstract Skill of seasonal precipitation forecasts for west Africa has improved to the point that forecasts may be of value to agricultural users, especially farmers. We studied agricultural production systems in three agro-ecozones of Burkina Faso to establish: (1) farmer interest in and ability to use forecasts; (2) forecast information farmers request; (3) lead-time required for greatest forecast value; (4) needs for forecast dissemination, interpretation, and application; and (5) possible strategies for using climate forecasts to improve crop production and resource management. The three agro-ecozones studied were a cotton-based system in the relatively high rainfall Sudan area of southwest Burkina Faso; a sorghum and millet based system in the low rainfall central plateau; and a cattle-based system in the very low rainfall Sahel area in the north. Potential value of forecasts to farmers differed among the three zones, with greatest apparent value to farmers of the central plateau and least apparent value to cattle herders of the Sahel. While farmers in all three agro-ecozones expressed a strong interest in receiving seasonal precipitation forecasts, they were much more interested in receiving forecasts of when the rains would start and end, and whether there would be interruptions in rains. Our results suggest that if seasonal precipitation forecasts are disseminated, they should be a part of an extension package that includes discussion of the probabilistic nature of the forecasts, potential response strategies, and risk management. Furthermore, farmers may need greater access to basic agricultural technologies, such as plows, new crop varieties, and fertilizers, before they can benefit fully from precipitation forecasts.

Effect of a large dam on malaria risk: The Koka reservoir in Ethiopia

Objective  To determine whether the Koka water reservoir in the Rift Valley of Ethiopia contributes to the malaria burden in its vicinity.

Coastal flooding, climate change and environmental justice: identifying obstacles and incentives for adaptation in two metropolitan Boston Massachusetts communities

We explored the possible future impacts of increased coastal flooding due to sea level rise and the potential adaptation responses of two urban, environmental justice communities in the metropolitan Boston area of Massachusetts. East Boston is predominantly a residential area with some industrial and commercial activities, particularly along the coastal fringe. Everett, a city to the north of Boston, has a diversified industrial and commercial base. While these two communities have similar socioeconomic characteristics, they differ substantially in the extent to which residents would be impacted by increased coastal flooding. In East Boston, a large portion of residents would be flooded, while in Everett, it is the commercial/industrial districts that are primarily vulnerable. Through a series of workshops with residents in each community, we found that the target populations do not have an adaptation perspective or knowledge of any resources that could assist them in this challenge. Furthermore, they do not feel included in the planning processes within their communities. However, a common incentive for both communities was an intense commitment to their communities and an eagerness to learn more and become actively engaged in decisions regarding climate change adaptation. The lessons that can be applied to other studies include 1) images are powerful tools in communicating concepts, 2) understanding existing cultural knowledge and values in adaptation planning is essential to the planning process and 3) engaging local residents at the beginning of the process can create important educational opportunities and develop trust and consensus that is necessary for moving from concept to implementation.

Simplified method for scenario-based risk assessment adaptation planning in the coastal zone

The development of successful coastal adaptation strategies for both the built and natural environments requires combining scenarios of climate change and socio-economic conditions, and risk assessment. Such planning needs to consider the adaptation costs and residual damages over time that may occur given a range of possible storm conditions for any given sea level rise scenario. Using the metric of the expected value of annual adaptation costs and residual damages, or another metric that can be related to the elevation of flooding, a simplified method to carry this out is presented. The approach relies upon developing damage-flooding depth probability exceedance curves for various scenarios over a given planning period and determining the areas under the curves. While the approach does have limitations, it is less complex to implement than using Monte Carlo simulation approaches and may be more intuitive to decision makers. A case study in Maine, USA is carried out to illustrate the method.

Integrated watershed management modeling: generic optimization model applied to the Ipswich River Basin.

A generic integrated watershed management optimization model was developed to efficiently screen a broad range of technical, economic, and policy management options within a watershed system framework and select the optimal combination of management strategies and associated water allocations for designing a sustainable watershed management plan at least cost. The watershed management model integrates both natural and human elements of a watershed system including the management of ground and surface water sources, water treatment and distribution systems, human demands, wastewater treatment and collection systems, water reuse facilities, nonpotable water distribution infrastructure, aquifer storage and recharge facilities, storm water, and land use. The model was formulated as a linear program and applied to the upper Ipswich River Basin in Massachusetts. Our results demonstrate the merits of integrated watershed management by showing (1) the relative efficacy and economic efficiency of undervalued or un...

Performance-Based Evaluation of an Improved Robust Optimization Formulation

AbstractMuch progress has been made in the standardization of uncertainty analysis techniques for simulation modeling but less progress has been made in optimization modeling. Among the various techniques used for optimization modeling under uncertainty, robust optimization (RO) uniquely allows for evaluation and control of the various risks of poor system performance resulting from input parameter uncertainties in water-resources problems. A model formulation was developed that addresses an inadequacy in a previous RO formulation. The importance of evaluating, through postprocessing, RO model results with respect to a range of performance metrics, has been demonstrated rather than a single metric, as has been common in previous studies. An analysis of the tradeoffs between solution robustness (nearness to optimality across all scenarios) and feasibility robustness (nearness to feasibility across all scenarios) illustrates the importance of including these terms in multiobjective water resources decision ...

Climate’s Long-term Impacts on Urban Infrastructures and Services: The Case of Metro Boston

In its development of methodologies and their applications to individual regions, this book presents a rich set of insights and a set of guides for investment and policymaking. Each of the six studies focuses on a finer geographic scale than is customary in integrated assessment research. They introduce innovations for impact analysis and contribute to the knowledge of localized experiences of climate change – how it affects a variety of sectors, how different stakeholders perceive its implications and adapt to it, and how decision support systems can promote dialogues between researchers, stakeholders and policymakers.

Water allocation, climate change, and sustainable peace : The Israeli Proposal

Abstract Israeli-Palestinian joint water management strategies fail to account for increased water demand caused by increasing populations and potential decreases in water availability due to climate change. This study examines the impacts of population growth and climate change on the water supplies of Israelis and Palestinians under “business-as-usual” conditions as well as under the Israeli-proposed water resources division discussed in meetings parallel to those at Camp David in 2000. The analysis establishes renewable water resources by source in Israel/Palestine and presents the current sectoral trends in water consumption. From this baseline, eight scenarios are developed that describe conditions in 2000 and 2025. Several indicators are used to measure the positive and negative effects of these conditions. The indicators show that population growth and climate change will negate many of the benefits of the water resources division proposed in 2000. Furthermore, the indicators reveal extreme water resources stress among Palestinians as well as potential environmental degradation as climate change depletes natural water supplies.

Integrated Optimization of a Dual Quality Water and Wastewater System

When addressing urban water problems, it is no longer adequate to consider issues of water supply, demand, disposal, and reuse independently. Innovative water management strategies and opportunities for water reuse can only be properly evaluated in the context of their interactions with the broader water system. An integrated linear deterministic optimization model is applied to Beirut, Lebanon, to determine the minimum cost configuration of future water supply, wastewater disposal, and reuse options for a semiarid coastal city. Previous urban water system optimization models considered only a single quality of potable water and were thus unable to demonstrate the cost-effectiveness of reclaimed water among all viable options for water supply. Two innovations of our work include incorporation of the entire anthropogenic water cycle including interconnections between supply, demand, disposal, and reuse and modeling of the suitability of nonpotable and potable qualities of water for each demand sector. The optimization model yields surprising insights. For example, after full use of inexpensive conventional sources, nonpotable direct reuse appears to be Beiruts most cost- effective option for supply of its urban nonpotable and irrigation demands. Our work highlights the importance of modeling the utility of multiple qualities of water in modern water supply planning.

Classic Optimization Techniques Applied to Stormwater and Nonpoint Source Pollution Management at the Watershed Scale

AbstractLinear and dynamic programming formulations are introduced for optimizing the placement of distributed best management practices (BMPs) at the watershed scale. The results of linear programming optimization of infiltration-based stormwater management BMPs are compared with the results of genetic algorithm (GA)optimization using a nonlinear distributed model. Additionally, linear and dynamic programming optimization of sediment-trapping BMPs are compared with GA optimization using a nonlinear distributed model. The results indicate that the solution to stormwater peak-flow reduction is influenced primarily by distributed-flow arrival time, and a linear programming analog to a nonlinear optimization model can efficiently reproduce much of the same solution structure. Linear and dynamic programming solutions to the storm sediment-management problem indicate natural sediment trapping is an important consideration, and a solution to the sediment-management-optimization problem can be efficiently found ...