Carlo Giupponi

Towards the development of a decision support system for water resource management

Developing decision support systems for environmental applications is an intricate, challenging task. The increasing complexity of environmental decision problems, the growing number of subjects involved and keen competition between conflicting interests make decisions and decision support difficult. Decision support systems have been developed since the 1970s to help tackle semi-structured and unstructured decision problems. Despite their popularity, the success of DSS development is uncertain and many computerised decision-support tools have failed when dealing with complex and unstructured problems. This article describes the development methodology and progress of mDSS, a decision support system for water resource management that has been developed under the European research project MULINO. The mDSS tool is designed to integrate environmental (especially hydrological) models with multiple-criteria evaluation procedures. A number of prototypes have been developed and the final version is expected at the end of the 3-year project. The system’s development is driven by the experience acquired in several case studies selected in five European countries. Although the main aim of the MULINO project and the DSS is to help with increasingly complex decisions of general water management, the concepts of sustainable river basin management introduced by the water framework directive are addressed as well. � 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Environmental decision support systems: Current issues, methods and tools

Abstract Development of environmental decision support systems (EDSS) is rapidly progressing. The sustainable management of natural resources has a growing research focus as the awareness of the complexity of interactions between socio-cultural, economical and biophysical system components is increasingly acknowledged. As better data and methods become available, the complexity of the system representation is augmenting. At the same time realism and relevance are increasing and allowing direct support for management and policy development. This article gives the background of recent developments in EDSS and summarises a selected set of papers that were presented at the 2nd Biennial Conference of the International Society of Environmental Modelling and Software (IEMSS 2004). Recent developments show a continuum between integrated assessment modelling and EDSS with varying levels of stakeholder participation in both EDSS development and application. There is a general tendency towards better utilisation of interdisciplinary data, integration and visualisation of temporal and spatial results. Future developments appear directed towards better representation of reality in models, improving user-friendliness and use in a negotiation or group discussion context.

Decision Support Systems for Implementing the European Water Framework Directive: the MULINO approach

Abstract The EU Water Framework Directive, WFD (Dir. 2000/60/EC) introduces an innovative, integrated and holistic approach to the protection and management of water resources. New methodologies and tools are required to support implementation of the new policy. To fulfil these requirements, tools such as Decision Support Systems (DSSs) that integrate environmental, social and economic concerns and that facilitate the involvement of interested parties in the formulation of strategies may be useful. The MULINO project has developed a methodology and a DSS tool to tackle such problems. Focus is on connecting environmental tools and decision support methods by combining the DPSIR (Driving force, Pressure, State, Impact and Response) approach with multi-criteria analysis methods in a Decision Support System called mDSS. The proposed approach can be applied in decision processes in which a group of people (i.e. decision makers and stakeholders), share a common conceptual framework and procedure, to structure the problem, discuss the decision and communicate the proposed solution. In this paper, the MULINO approach is presented, focusing on its potential for the current implementation process of the WFD, according to the recently released guidance documents and the experience gained in several case studies carried out during the research project. The evaluation of the potential of the tool for applications in real-world management problems is carried out by taking into account the feedback from project partners and from end users, within and outside the research consortium.

MULINO-DSS: a computer tool for sustainable use of water resources at the catchment scale

MULINO, an ongoing project financed by the European Commission, has released the prototype of a Decision Support System software (mDSS) for the sustainable management of water resources at the catchment scale. The software integrates socio-economic and environmental modelling, with geo-spatial information and multicriteria analysis. The policy background refers to the EU Water Framework Directive. The challenging multi-disciplinary context was approached by developing an innovative and dynamic implementation of the DPSIR framework, originally proposed by the European Environmental Agency. In mDSS integrated assessment modelling provides the values of quantitative indicators to be used for transparent and participated decisions, through the application of value functions, weights and decision roles chosen by the end user. Simple routines for the sensitivity analysis and comparison of alternative weight vectors also provides effective decision support by exploring and finding compromises between conflicting interests/perspectives in a multi-stakeholder context.

Potentials and Limits of Bayesian Networks to Deal with Uncertainty in the Assessment of Climate Change Adaptation Policies

Bayesian networks (BNs) have been increasingly applied to support management and decision-making processes under conditions of environmental variability and uncertainty, providing logical and holistic reasoning in complex systems since they succinctly and effectively translate causal assertions between variables into patterns of probabilistic dependence. Through a theoretical assessment of the features and the statistical rationale of BNs, and a review of specific applications to ecological modelling, natural resource management, and climate change policy issues, the present paper analyses the effectiveness of the BN model as a synthesis framework, which would allow the user to manage the uncertainty characterising the definition and implementation of climate change adaptation policies. The review will let emerge the potentials of the model to characterise, incorporate and communicate the uncertainty, with the aim to provide an efficient support to an informed and transparent decision making process. The possible drawbacks arising from the implementation of BNs are also analysed, providing potential solutions to overcome them.

Bridging the gaps between design and use: developing tools to support environmental management and policy

Abstract Integrated assessment models, decision support systems (DSS) and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) are examples of a growing number of computer-based tools designed to provide decision and information support to people engaged in formulating and implementing environmental policy and management. It is recognised that environmental policy and management users are often not as receptive to using such tools as desired but that little research has been done to uncover and understand the reasons. There is a diverse range of environmental decision and information support tools (DISTs) with uses including organisational and participatory decision support, and scientific research. The different uses and users of DISTs each present particular needs and challenges to the tool developers. The lack of appreciation of the needs of end-users by developers has contributed to the lack of success of many DISTs. Therefore it is important to engage users and other stakeholders in the tool development process to help bridge the gap between design and use. Good practice recommendations for developers to involve users include being clear about the purpose of the tool, working collaboratively with other developers and stakeholders, and building social and scientific credibility.

Climate Change in the Mediterranean

The book begins with a broad global overview of the probable economic and social consequences of climate change. The authors then focus on the issue of water resources and assess a range of potential problems such as increasing droughts, adequate irrigation, reduced water quality and population migration due to severe shortages. They move on to examine issues surrounding land use including desertification, degradation, agriculture and waste management. Finally, they investigate the coastal zones of the Mediterranean which are economically vulnerable to variations in climate due to their reliance on tourism. The book integrates methodological and empirical issues, provides interdisciplinary analyses of the effects of climate change and explores policy implications for the future.

Sustainable Management of Water Resources

Experts across a wide range of specialist fields including social sciences, informatics, ecology and hydrology are brought together in this truly multidisciplinary approach to water management. They provide the reader with integrated insights into water resource management practices that underpin the three pillars of sustainable development – environment, economics and society – through a series of international case studies and theoretical frameworks.

Reviewing Agent-Based Modelling of Socio-Ecosystems: A Methodology for the Analysis of Climate Change Adaptation and Sustainability

The integrated - environmental, economic and social - analysis of climate change calls for a paradigm shift as it is fundamentally a problem of complex, bottom-up and multi-agent human behaviour. There is a growing awareness that global environmental change dynamics and the related socio-economic implications involve a degree of complexity that requires an innovative modelling of combined social and ecological systems. Climate change policy can no longer be addressed separately from a broader context of adaptation and sustainability strategies. A vast body of literature on agent-based modelling (ABM) shows its potential to couple social and environmental models, to incorporate the influence of micro-level decision making in the system dynamics and to study the emergence of collective responses to policies. However, there are few publications which concretely apply this methodology to the study of climate change related issues. The analysis of the state of the art reported in this paper supports the idea that today ABM is an appropriate methodology for the bottom-up exploration of climate policies, especially because it can take into account adaptive behaviour and heterogeneity of the systems components.

Thresholds of hydrologic flow regime of a river and investigation of climate change impact—the case of the Lower Brahmaputra river Basin

The sustainability of social-ecological systems depends on river flows being maintained within a range to which those systems are adapted. In order to determine the extent of this natural range of variation, we assess ecological flow thresholds and the occurrence of potentially damaging flood events to society in the context of the Lower Brahmaputra river basin. The ecological flow threshold was calculated using twenty-two ‘Range of Variability (RVA)’ parameters, considering the range between ± 1 standard deviation from the mean of the natural flow. Damaging flood events were calculated using flood frequency analysis of Annual Maxima series and using the flood classification of Bangladesh. The climate change impacts on future river flow were calculated by using a weighted ensemble analysis of twelve global circulation models (GCMs) outputs driving a large-scale hydrologic model. The simulated climate change induced altered flow regime of the Lower Brahmaputra River Basin was then investigated and compared with the calculated threshold flows. The results demonstrate that various parameters including the monthly mean of low flow (January, February and March) and high flow (June, July and August) periods, the 7-day average minimum flow, and the yearly maximum flow will exceed the threshold conditions by 1956–1995 under the business-as-usual A1B and A2 future scenarios. The results have a number of policy level implications for government agencies of the Lower Brahmaputra River Basin, specifically for Bangladesh. The calculated thresholds may be used as a good basis for negotiations with other riparian countries of the basin. The methodological approach presented in this study can be applied to other river basins and provide a useful basis for transboundary water resources management.