Stefano Balbi

Reviewing Agent-Based Modelling of Socio-Ecosystems: A Methodology for the Analysis of Climate Change Adaptation and Sustainability

The integrated - environmental, economic and social - analysis of climate change calls for a paradigm shift as it is fundamentally a problem of complex, bottom-up and multi-agent human behaviour. There is a growing awareness that global environmental change dynamics and the related socio-economic implications involve a degree of complexity that requires an innovative modelling of combined social and ecological systems. Climate change policy can no longer be addressed separately from a broader context of adaptation and sustainability strategies. A vast body of literature on agent-based modelling (ABM) shows its potential to couple social and environmental models, to incorporate the influence of micro-level decision making in the system dynamics and to study the emergence of collective responses to policies. However, there are few publications which concretely apply this methodology to the study of climate change related issues. The analysis of the state of the art reported in this paper supports the idea that today ABM is an appropriate methodology for the bottom-up exploration of climate policies, especially because it can take into account adaptive behaviour and heterogeneity of the systems components.

An integrated approach of flood risk assessment in the eastern part of Dhaka City

Abstract The flood risk is a function of the flood hazard, the exposed values, and their vulnerability. In addition to extreme hydrological events, different anthropogenic activities such as extensive urbanization and land use play an important role in producing catastrophic floods. Considerations of both physical and social dimensions are therefore equally important in flood risk assessment. However, very often the risk assessment studies focus either on physical or social dimensions. In addition, the available studies often focus on economic valuation of only direct tangible costs. In this study, we provide an integrated flood risk assessment approach that goes beyond the valuation of direct tangible costs, through incorporating physical dimensions in hazard and exposure and social dimensions in vulnerability. The method has been implemented in the Dhaka City, Bangladesh, an area internationally recognized as hot spot for flood risk. In this study, flood hazards for different return periods are calculated in spatial environment using a hydrologic model, HEC-RAS. Vulnerability is assessed through aggregation of various social dimensions, i.e., coping and adaptive capacities, and susceptibility. We assess vulnerability for both baseline and improved scenarios. In the baseline scenario, current early warning for study area is considered. In the alternative scenario, the warning system is expected to improve. Aggregating hazard, exposure and vulnerability, risk maps (in terms of both tangible and intangible costs) of several return period floods are produced for both baseline and improved scenarios. Compared to traditional assessments, the integrated assessment approach used in this study generates more information about the flood risk. Consequently, the results are useful in evaluating policy alternatives and minimizing property loss in the study area.

Integrated Risk Assessment of Water-Related Disasters

Abstract This chapter presents a conceptual framework (KULTURisk Framework or KR-FWK) and its implementation methods (SERRA or Socio-Economic Regional Risk Assessment) for integrated (physical and economical) risk assessment and evaluation of risk prevention benefits in the field of water-related processes. The KR-FWK (i.e. from the name of the European project within which it originated) and the SERRA approach were developed upon preexisting proposals, with three main innovation aims: (1) to include the social capacities of reducing vulnerability and risk, (2) to provide an operational solution to assess risks, impacts, and the benefits of plausible risk reduction measures, by including a monetary estimation of costs and benefits, and (3) to go beyond the estimation of direct tangible costs. Vulnerability is considered as a result of the interactions between physical (territorial) characteristics and the susceptibility and the capacities of the socioeconomic system to adapt and cope with a specific hazard, expressed as a nondimensional index ranging between 0 and 1. Exposure, is instead assessed in monetary terms, and thus the multiplicative combination of two indices ranging between 0 and 1 (hazard and vulnerability) with a third one (exposure) expressed in monetary terms produces a monetary quantification of risk, which can be used for supporting decisions via cost-benefit analysis. Regarding the third aim of going beyond the estimation of direct tangible damages, operational solutions are proposed to evaluate four possible socioeconomic costs possibly deriving from the adverse consequences of flood, namely direct/indirect and tangible/intangible costs. The proposed methodology aims to be comprehensive with respect to the set of receptors usually considered in the literature of regional risk assessment. The sets of receptors considered are people, economic activities, categorized as (1) buildings; (2) infrastructures; and (3) agriculture and cultural heritage and ecosystems. We show how to apply SERRA and the KR-FWK in the case of Dhaka/Lower Brahmaputra/Bangladesh, by reusing elaborations already done or in progress and by developing some minimal new work; e.g. to demonstrate indirect/intangible costs.

Simple or complicated agent-based models? A complicated issue

Agent-based models (ABMs) are increasingly recognized as valuable tools in modelling human-environmental systems, but challenges and critics remain. One pressing challenge in the era of Big Data and given the flexibility of representation afforded by ABMs, is identifying the appropriate level of complicatedness in model structure for representing and investigating complex real-world systems. In this paper, we differentiate the concepts of complexity (model behaviour) and complicatedness (model structure), and illustrate the non-linear relationship between them. We then systematically evaluate the trade-offs between simple (often theoretical) models and complicated (often empirically-grounded) models. We propose using pattern-oriented modelling, stepwise approaches, and modular design to guide modellers in reaching an appropriate level of model complicatedness. While ABMs should be constructed as simple as possible but as complicated as necessary to address the predefined research questions, we also warn modellers of the pitfalls and risks of building mid-level models mixing stylized and empirical components. We clarify the terms complexity and complicated in the context of ABM.We comprehensively discuss pros and cons of simple and complicated ABMs.We identify challenges and pitfalls for simple and complicated ABMs.We provide recommendations and good practices for dealing with complicatedness.

Agent-Based Modelling of Socio-Ecosystems: A Methodology for the Analysis of Adaptation to Climate Change

The integrated-environmental, economic and social-analysis of climate change calls for a paradigm shift as it is fundamentally a problem of complex, bottom-up and multi-agent human behaviour. There is a growing awareness that global environmental change dynamics and the related socio-economic implications involve a degree of complexity that requires an innovative modelling of combined social and ecological systems. Climate change policy can no longer be addressed separately from a broader context of adaptation and sustainability strategies. Past research on artificial intelligence and social simulation has developed a promising methodology. Literature on agent-based modelling ABM shows its potential to couple social and environmental models and incorporate the influence of micro-level decision making in the system dynamics and to study the emergence of collective responses to policies. However, there are few studies that concretely apply this methodology to the study of climate change related issues. The analysis in this paper supports the idea that today ABM is a consolidated interdisciplinary approach for the bottom-up exploration of climate policies, especially because it can take into account adaptive behaviour and heterogeneity of the systems components.

Modeling trade-offs among ecosystem services in agricultural production systems

Although agricultural ecosystems can provide humans with a wide set of benefits agricultural production system management is mainly driven by food production. As a consequence, a need to ensure food security globally has been accompanied by a significant decline in the state of ecosystems. In order to reduce negative trade-offs and identify potential synergies it is necessary to improve our understanding of the relationships between various ecosystem services (ES) as well as the impacts of farm management on ES provision. We present a spatially explicit application that captures and quantifies ES trade-offs in the crop systems of Llanada Alavesa in the Basque Country. Our analysis presents a quantitative assessment of selected ES including crop yield, water supply and quality, climate regulation and air quality. The study is conducted using semantic meta-modeling, a technique that enables flexible integration of models to overcome the service-by-service modeling approach applied traditionally in ES assessment. The intensification and extensification of agriculture threatens ecosystems globally.An ecosystem-based approach to food provision is shown for a specific Basque case.Three ES are integrated with crop production into a modular agri-modeling framework.Improving air and water quality by reducing manure usage implies major yield losses.Avoiding tillage increases carbon sequestration with marginal impacts on yields.

Sustainable tourism planning and climate change adaptation in the Alps: a case study of winter tourism in mountain communities in the Dolomites

ABSTRACT A vast body of literature suggests that the European Alpine Region is extremely sensitive to climate change. Winter tourism is closely related to climate variations, especially in mountain regions where resorts are heavily dependent on snow. This paper explores how to effectively integrate a climate change adaptation perspective with local discourses about sustainability and tourism, an increasing priority for policy-makers in the region and elsewhere. It reports on the development and application of a participatory decision support process for the analysis of adaptation strategies for local development of an Alpine tourism destination, Auronzo di Cadore (Dolomites, Italy). This experience significantly contributed to the idea that an efficient combination of modelling capabilities, decision support tools, and participatory processes can substantially improve decision-making for sustainability. The authors show that, in this case study, such a combination of methods and tools allowed for managing the involvement of local actors, stimulating local debates on climate change adaptation and possible consequences on winter tourism, encouraging creativity and smoothing potential conflicts, and easing the integration of the qualitative knowledge and the preferences of the involved actors with quantitative information. This contributed to an integrated sustainability assessment of alternative strategies for sustainable tourism planning.

The Economics of Hydro-Meteorological Disasters: Approaching the Estimation of the Total Costs

Hydro-meteorological disasters have caused increasing losses in recent years. Efficient risk reduction policies require accurate assessment approaches, with careful consideration of costs, beyond direct tangible costs, which are commonly used in practice. Faced with possible risk reduction scenarios, limited financial resources require an improvement in the quality of cost estimation, thereby contributing to an efficient allocation of resources. This paper focuses on the concept of total costs of hydro-meteorological disasters, based on direct and indirect as well as tangible and intangible cost categories. These categories are defined and explained, supported by a comprehensive review of economic valuation methods. Based on this information, practice relevant suggestions are made concerning the most appropriate methods for different cases in terms of scale, availability of data and of technical resources. Our survey also provides critical insights to drawbacks of flood risk estimation, which need to be addressed and carefully dealt with in any future research in this area.

A Conceptual Framework for Comprehensive Assessment of Risk Prevention Measures: The Kulturisk Framework (KR-FWK)

A conceptual framework integrating different disciplines is described in order to provide the basis for the development of a methodology to comprehensively evaluate the benefits of risk prevention. Two main innovations are proposed with regards to the state of the art: to define a measure of risk that goes beyond the direct tangible costs and to include the social capacities of reducing risk.

Easing the adoption of agent-based modelling (ABM) in tourism research

Agent-based modelling (ABM) is an emerging approach in tourism research. Despite the natural fit between theories of tourism as a complex, interconnected system, and the generative approach supported in ABM, there has been only limited integration within mainstream tourism research. This research letter reports on a recent gathering of tourism ABM researchers to define the main challenges that face the adoption of ABM in tourism research. These include technical, communications, and novelty issues. In response to these challenges, three potential strategies to ease adoption are outlined: education, awareness, and interdisciplinary teams. These findings are framed as a call for increased attention to the fit of ABM within tourism research, and a framework for negotiating constraints to adoption of this technology.