Carlos Bozzoli

Adult height and childhood disease

Taller populations are typically richer populations, and taller individuals live longer and earn more. In consequence, adult height has recently become a focus in understanding the relationship between health and wealth. We investigate the childhood determinants of population adult height, focusing on the respective roles of income and of disease. Across a range of European countries and the United States, we find a strong inverse relationship between postneonatal (ages 1 month to 1 year) mortality, interpreted as a measure of the disease and nutritional burden in childhood, and the mean height of those children as adults. Consistent with these findings, we develop a model of selection and stunting in which the early-life burden of undernutrition and disease not only is responsible for mortality in childhood but also leaves a residue of long-term health risks for survivors, risks that express themselves in adult height and in late-life disease. The model predicts that at sufficiently high mortality levels, selection can dominate scarring, leaving a taller population of survivors. We find evidence of this effect in the poorest and highest-mortality countries of the world, supplementing recent findings on the effects of the Great Chinese Famine.

The Weight of the Crisis: Evidence from Newborns in Argentina

Argentina hit world news headlines in 2002 due to the largest debt-default in history and a sudden economic collapse reminiscent of economic statistics from the Great Depression. In this article, we focus on other consequences of the crisis that are not so obvious, but that may linger for decades on. Combining macroeconomic indicators with the Argentine national registry of live births, approximately 1.9 million live births occurring between 2001 and 2003, we show that the crisis led to an average birth weight loss of 30 grams. Our estimate is robust to different identification strategies. This deterioration in birth weight occurred in just about 6 months, and represents one sixth of the difference in average birth weight between American and Pakistani babies. We also find that the crisis affected particularly the weight of babies born from low-socioeconomic status mothers. In an attempt to estimate the long-lasting economic cost of the crisis, we simulate the average loss of future individual earnings due to the reduction in average birth weight: about 500 US dollars per live birth in present value.

Agriculture, Poverty, and Postwar Reconstruction: Micro-Level Evidence from Northern Mozambique*

This article analyzes the effects of household-level activity choices on farm household welfare in a developing country affected by mass violent armed conflict. The study uses household survey data from postwar Nampula and Cabo Delgado provinces in Northern Mozambique capturing many activity choices, including market participation, risk and activity diversification, cotton adoption, and social exchange, as well as income-and consumption-based measures of welfare. The study advances the literature on postwar coping and rural poverty at the micro level by estimating potentially endogenous activity choices and welfare outcomes using instrumental variables. The study finds that increasing the cultivated area and on-farm activities enhances postwar welfare of smallholders exploiting wartime survival techniques. Subsistence farming reduces income but does not affect consumption, while market participation has positive welfare effects. This suggests that postwar reconstruction policies should encourage the wartime crop mix but offer enhanced marketing opportunities for such crops. Cotton adoption, which was promoted by aid agencies in the postwar period, reduces household welfare per capita by between 16% and 31%, controlling for market access. This contradicts previous studies of postwar rural development that did not control for the war-related endogeneity. Hence, addressing the potential endogeneity of activity choices is important because the standard regression approach may lead to biased estimates of the impact of activity choice on welfare, which in turn may lead to biased policy advice. The article discusses and contextualizes these findings, concluding with a discussion of suitable pro-poor reconstruction policies for national governments and donors.

Self-Employment and Conflict in Colombia

Many Colombians are confronted with the ongoing conflict that influences their decision making in everyday life, including their behavior in labor markets. This study focuses on the impact of violent conflict on self-employment, enlarging the usual determinants with a set of conflict variables. Our estimation strategy compares three different estimates: one from fixed-effects panel data (OLS-FE), estimates using lagged conflict indicators instead of contemporaneous regressors, and instrumental variables (IV-FE) estimates. Our results show that a one standard deviation increase in net displacement rates increases the rate of self-employment by about 7 percent points. Dividing the self-employed into different sectors (services and agriculture), we find that net displacement increases self-employment in the services sector but has no effect in agriculture that is affected by attacks by rebel and paramilitary groups, instead. Looking at the income of self-employed individuals, an influx of displaced reduces sharply hourly income in the self-employment sector.

A Survey of the Global Economic Costs of Conflict

This paper defines the global economic costs of conflict and suggests two key criteria, namely comprehensiveness and consistency, which are necessary for a valid calculation of such costs. A critical review of the literature reveals that most studies focus on national income losses, using counterfactual regression models, finding a negative impact on growth both for conflict countries themselves and for their neighbors. However, the debate is quite fragmented and the literature fails to combine these insights in a comprehensive and consistent manner. Furthermore, there is little work thus far on integrating aggregate and micro‐level estimates of the costs of conflict.

Activity Choices of Internally Displaced Persons and Returnees: Quantitative Survey Evidence from Post-War Northern Uganda

We study the effect of living in an internally displaced peoples (IDP) camp on economic activity choices in post war northern Uganda. As the decision to relocate from a camp is voluntary, camp residents may be different from returnees. We merge household data with micro-level conflict data to control for endogeneity (selection of households out from camps). We find a strong effect of camp residence on activity choices. Particularly, individuals in IDP camps are more inclined to cultivate and engage in trading, than those who returned. However they are less likely to make handicrafts and participate in any of the wide range of activities. The observation that individuals living in camps strive to ensure self-reliance underscores the need for livelihood interventions and other recovery programmes to target not only returnee households but also create opportunities for households still in displacement. This should be coupled with improvement of security around camps to foster increased economic activity. Results also point to the need to fast-track infrastructure development and stimulate local demand that allows returnees to self-sustain.

How Many Bucks in a Bang: On the Estimation of the Economic Costs of Conflict

The estimation of the costs of conflict is currently receiving a lot of attention in the literature. This paper aims to give a thorough overview of the existing literature, first by addressing the history of case studies that address conflict costs and second by looking at the existing body of cross-country analyses for conflict costs. In addition to the existing cross-country literature, a number of studies that only concern themselves with particular elements of conflict costs are included as well. In the end, this paper combines the insights from these previous analyses to explore how much room there is to further improve the existing studies. Specific recommendations are given how to proceed with the development of the field of conflict cost measurement.

Movers or Stayers? Understanding the Drivers of IDP Camp Decongestion During Post-Conflict Recovery in Uganda

The paper explores factors that influence the household decision to leave internal displacement camps in the immediate aftermath of violent conflict. Our analysis is based on two sources of information: household survey data collected in northern Uganda for households that were displaced by the civil conflict, and geo-referenced data on armed conflict events, with which we construct our developed index of recent conflict exposure. We compare households that moved out of camps with those that remained in the camps after the region was declared safe from rebel incursions. The study covers the first few months of the end of conflict, when return was regarded as largely voluntary. We find that a history of conflict both at the place of residence, and at the expected place of return reduces the likelihood of return. Access to camp services overall encourages households to stay in camps, although the effect varies with the proportion of young household members. Results also show that a history of economic skills poses varying effects on return decisions. While experience in cultivation is associated with a high likelihood of moving out of the camp, households with members with recent experience in trading are less inclined to return. From a policy perspective, the results point to the need for recovery initiatives to ensure access to adequate infrastructures in return locations in order to fast-track reintegration.

The Evolution of Adult Height Across Spanish Regions 1950-1980: A New Source of Data

We present new evidence concerning the evolution of adult height across Spanish regions for the 1950-1980 male and female birth cohorts, using the augmented sample of the European Community Household Panel (ECHP) for Spain. This augmented sample, available only for the year 2000, contains self-reported height data representative at the Autonomous Community level. The average heights of these two sets of birth cohorts, female and male, are found to increase by 1.7 and 1.6cm/decade, respectively. Making available a new dataset of quinquennial mean heights will allow researchers to study the determinants of population heights by means of a within-country analysis.

Child Morbidity and Camp Decongestion in Post-War Uganda

Conflict related displacement affects millions of families throughout the world. Very little is known about the determinants of health outcomes in the period immediately after a cease-fire is agreed, in which currently displaced people living in camps consider returning to their place of origin. In this paper, we study the effects of war and displacement on the health of children, using morbidity data collected as part of a large household survey from post-war northern Uganda in 2007. We combine this dataset with geo-coded conflict event data at the individual level to overcome the challenges of selection bias and endogeneity arising from households choosing their location in part based on their health status. This methodological concern is confirmed in our analysis. We then estimate the determinants of child morbidity (proxied by various health indicators) in an instrumental variables multivariate model, where conflict intensity at place of birth of the head of household is used as an instrument. We find that while children in IDP camps and in returnee locations exhibit the same mean morbidity rates, IDP camp residency almost doubles morbidity while poor access to safe drinking water in return locations counteracts the positive health effects of camp decongestion. Our results point to the importance of overcrowding and poor cooking technologies in IDP camps for worsening morbidity in children and the need to provide better sanitation and drinking water access in return locations to further improve the health status of conflict-affected children. Better data and analysis in early post-war periods can help to balance public health interventions, thereby strengthening the peace process.