Carlos E. Restrepo

Causes, cost consequences, and risk implications of accidents in US hazardous liquid pipeline infrastructure

Abstract In this paper the causes and consequences of accidents in US hazardous liquid pipelines that result in the unplanned release of hazardous liquids are examined. Understanding how different causes of accidents are associated with consequence measures can provide important inputs into risk management for this (and other) critical infrastructure systems. Data on 1582 accidents related to hazardous liquid pipelines for the period 2002–2005 are analyzed. The data were obtained from the US Department of Transportation’s Office of Pipeline Safety (OPS). Of the 25 different causes of accidents included in the data the most common ones are equipment malfunction, corrosion, material and weld failures, and incorrect operation. This paper focuses on one type of consequence–various costs associated with these pipeline accidents–and causes associated with them. The following economic consequence measures related to accident cost are examined: the value of the product lost; public, private, and operator property damage; and cleanup, recovery, and other costs. Logistic regression modeling is used to determine what factors are associated with nonzero product loss cost, nonzero property damage cost and nonzero cleanup and recovery costs. The factors examined include the system part involved in the accident, location characteristics (offshore versus onshore location, occurrence in a high consequence area), and whether there was liquid ignition, an explosion, and/or a liquid spill. For the accidents associated with nonzero values for these consequence measures (weighted) least squares regression is used to understand the factors related to them, as well as how the different initiating causes of the accidents are associated with the consequence measures. The results of these models are then used to construct illustrative scenarios for hazardous liquid pipeline accidents. These scenarios suggest that the magnitude of consequence measures such as value of product lost, property damage and cleanup and recovery costs are highly dependent on accident cause and other accident characteristics. The regression models used to construct these scenarios constitute an analytical tool that industry decision-makers can use to estimate the possible consequences of accidents in these pipeline systems by cause (and other characteristics) and to allocate resources for maintenance and to reduce risk factors in these systems.

Analyzing cascading effects within infrastructure sectors for consequence reduction

Cascading effects of infrastructure failures from terrorist attacks or natural hazards can greatly increase the magnitude of impacts from a failure of any given infrastructure. Interdependencies among infrastructure sectors in part drive these effects. Capturing how interdependencies operate and heighten impacts to develop procedures and policies to improve recovery is less well understood. This paper first presents an accounting system to identify where interdependencies are likely to occur. Second, given interdependencies, ways to portray vulnerabilities from interdependencies and estimate magnitude with qualitative or integer scales are presented from prior research and event databases. The methodology to quantify interdependencies and associated cascades builds on work on electric power outages and impacts they had on other infrastructure, such as oil and natural gas, electricity, transportation, and water. The method can be used to analyze connections between restoration times and types of interconnections failed and alternative technologies to reduce impacts of cascades.

Unraveling Geographic Interdependencies in Electric Power Infrastructure

Interdependencies among infrastructure systems are now becoming commonplace, and present both opportunities and vulnerabilities. Initial attention was paid to functional interdependencies among infrastructure systems regardless of locational characteristics. Using electric power as a focal point, geographic interdependencies are evaluated, that is, outages that spread across several states rather than being confined to single states. The analysis evaluates the extent to which the two different groups have distinct characteristics. The characteristics examined include incident counts, number of customers lost, duration and energy unserved. Data are drawn from the Disturbance Analysis Working Group (DAWG) database, which is maintained by the North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC), and from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

Resource allocation, emergency response capability, and infrastructure concentration around vulnerable sites

Public and private decision‐makers continue to seek risk‐based approaches to allocate funds to help communities respond to disasters, accidents, and terrorist attacks involving critical infrastructure facilities. The requirements for emergency response capability depend both upon risks within a regions jurisdiction and mutual aid agreements that have been made with other regions. In general, regions in close proximity to infrastructure would benefit more from resources to improve preparedness because there is a greater potential for an event requiring emergency response to occur if there are more facilities at which such events could occur. Thus, a potentially important input into decisions about allocating funds for security is the proximity of a community to high concentrations of infrastructure systems that potentially could be at risk to an industrial accident, natural disaster, or terrorist attack. In this paper, we describe a methodology for measuring a regions exposure to infrastructure‐related risks that captures both a communitys concentration of facilities or sites considered to be vulnerable and of the proximity of these facilities to surrounding infrastructure systems. These measures are based on smoothing‐based nonparametric probability density estimators, which are then used to estimate the probability of the entire infrastructure occurring within any specified distance of facilities in a county. The set of facilities used in the paper to illustrate the use of this methodology consists of facilities identified as vulnerable through the California Buffer Zone Protection Program. For infrastructure in surrounding areas we use dams judged to be high hazards, and BART tracks. The results show that the methodology provides information about patterns of critical infrastructure in regions that is relevant for decisions about how to allocate terrorism security and emergency preparedness resources.

Analysis of Electrical Power and Oil and Gas Pipeline Failures

This paper examines the spatial and temporal distribution of failures in three critical infrastructure systems in the United States: the electrical power grid, hazardous liquids (including oil) pipelines, and natural gas pipelines. The analyses are carried out at the state level, though the analytical frameworks are applicable to other geographic areas and infrastructure types. The paper also discusses how understanding the spatial distribution of these failures can be used as an input into risk management policies to improve the performance of these systems, as well as for security and natural hazards mitigation.

Risk and Economic Costs of a Terrorist Attack on the Electric System

This landmark book covers a range of issues concerning the consequences of terrorist attacks. Beginning with a discussion of new policies and strategies, it then delves into specific areas of concern, modeling a range of possible scenarios and ways to mitigate or pre-empt damages.

Risk communication for catastrophic events: results from focus groups

Focus group methods are adapted here to address two important needs for risk communication: (1) to provide approaches to risk communication in very extreme and catastrophic events, and (2) to obtain risk communication content within the specific catastrophe area of chemical and biological attacks. Focus groups were designed and conducted according to well‐established protocols using hypothetical sarin and smallpox attacks resulting in a chemical or biological release in a confined public space in a transit system. These cases were used to identify content for risk communication information and suggest directions for further research in this area. Common procedures for conducting focus groups were used based on an initial review of such procedures. Four focus groups – two for each type of release – each lasted about two hours. Participants were professionals normally involved in emergencies in health, emergency management, and transportation. They were selected using a snowball sampling technique. Examples of findings for approaches to communicating such risks included how information should be organized over time and how space, locations, and places should be defined for releases to anchor perceptions geographically. Examples of findings for risk communication content are based on how professionals reacted to risk communications used during the two hypothetical releases they were presented with and how they suggested using risk communications. These findings have considerable implications for using and structuring focus groups to derive risk communication procedures and types of content to be used in the context of catastrophes.

Multimodal transit connectivity for flexibility in extreme events

Transportation services and their networks are vital in providing users with flexibility under both normal and extreme conditions. The availability of alternatives is essential in emergencies to provide critical support services for evacuation and supplies, yet disasters often impair transportations ability to provide these services. In the populous and dense New York and New Jersey area, weather disasters often set records, have occurred historically, and are expected to recur. Vulnerabilities particularly affect disadvantaged populations. Multimodal connectivity for rail and bus transit is evaluated for New York City and several northeastern New Jersey cities for passenger flexibility and risk reduction in emergencies. The U.S. Department of Transportations Intermodal Passenger Connectivity Database is evaluated as a general multimodal connectivity context. For rail transit stations, bus counts are computed for each station for buses stopping within a 0.1-mi radius; this requirement reflects the needs of less mobile users. Geographic information systems are used for database construction for statistical analysis with publicly available transit and census databases. The New York City statistical analyses of census tracts within which stations are located show variable bus connectivity for different stations and suggest availability by poverty level. A subanalysis for New York Citys terminus stations shows greater bus connectivity and different transit activity characteristics. Results provide ways of operationalizing connectivity for transit resilience as critical infrastructure. Methods can be extended to other areas. Recommendations for flexibility in terms of passenger multimodality are provided.

History and Examples of Environmental Justice

Environmental justice has become an influential policy discourse and analysis tool over the last few decades with particular importance for risk management. This article examines the evolution of the environmental justice movement in the United States, the main research tools used in the field, and their potential use and adaptation for incorporating justice into risk problems. The environmental justice discourse in international policy issues such as climate change and transboundary movements of hazardous and toxic substances, and its use within the sustainable development field are also discussed. Although literature reviews of environmental justice analysis suggest that there is strong evidence of environmental inequities, many research challenges exist related to the measurement of individual and multiple exposures to environmental risks and their link to human health outcomes. Understanding these links among different population groups is an area of active research and represents critical future research directions in the field. Keywords: environmental justice; environmental equity; environmental risk; proximity analysis; sustainable development; geographic information systems (GIS); infrastructure; risk assessment; risk management