Carlos Pérez García-Pando

Atmospheric Transport and Deposition of Mineral Dust to the Ocean: Implications for Research Needs

This paper reviews our knowledge of the measurement and modeling of mineral dust emissions to the atmosphere, its transport and deposition to the ocean, the release of iron from the dust into seawater, and the possible impact of that nutrient on marine biogeochemistry and climate. Of particular concern is our poor understanding of the mechanisms and quantities of dust deposition as well as the extent of iron solubilization from the dust once it enters the ocean. Model estimates of dust deposition in remote oceanic regions vary by more than a factor of 10. The fraction of the iron in dust that is available for use by marine phytoplankton is still highly uncertain. There is an urgent need for a long-term marine atmospheric surface measurement network, spread across all oceans. Because the southern ocean is characterized by large areas with high nitrate but low chlorophyll surface concentrations, that region is particularly sensitive to the input of dust and iron. Data from this region would be valuable, particularly at sites downwind from known dust source areas in South America, Australia, and South Africa. Coordinated field experiments involving both atmospheric and marine measurements are recommended to address the complex and interlinked processes and role of dust/Fe fertilization on marine biogeochemistry and climate.

CMIP5 historical simulations (1850–2012) with GISS ModelE2

Observations of climate change during the CMIP5 extended historical period (1850-2012) are compared to trends simulated by six versions of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE2 Earth System Model. The six models are constructed from three versions of the ModelE2 atmospheric general circulation model, distinguished by their treatment of atmospheric composition and the aerosol indirect effect, combined with two ocean general circulation models, HYCOM and Russell. Forcings that perturb the model climate during the historical period are described. Five-member ensemble averages from each of the six versions of ModelE2 simulate trends of surface air temperature, atmospheric temperature, sea ice and ocean heat content that are in general agreement with observed trends, although simulated warming is slightly excessive within the past decade. Only simulations that include increasing concentrations of long-lived greenhouse gases match the warming observed during the twentieth century. Differences in twentieth-century warming among the six model versions can be attributed to differences in climate sensitivity, aerosol and ozone forcing, and heat uptake by the deep ocean. Coupled models with HYCOM export less heat to the deep ocean, associated with reduced surface warming in regions of deepwater formation, but greater warming elsewhere at high latitudes along with reduced sea ice. All ensembles show twentieth-century annular trends toward reduced surface pressure at southern high latitudes and a poleward shift of the midlatitude westerlies, consistent with observations.

Impact of Dust Radiative Forcing upon Climate

Dust aerosols perturb the atmospheric radiative flux at both solar and thermal wavelengths, altering the energy and water cycles. The climate adjusts by redistributing energy and moisture, so that local temperature perturbations, for example, depend upon the forcing over the entire extent of the perturbed circulation. Within regions frequently mixed by deep convection, including the deep tropics, dust particles perturb the surface air temperature primarily through radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere (TOA). Many models predict that dust reduces global precipitation. This reduction is typically attributed to the decrease of surface evaporation in response to dimming of the surface. A counterexample is presented, where greater shortwave absorption by dust increases evaporation and precipitation despite greater dimming of the surface. This is attributed to the dependence of surface evaporation upon TOA forcing through its influence upon surface temperature and humidity. Perturbations by dust to the surface wind speed and vegetation (through precipitation anomalies) feed back upon the dust aerosol concentration. The current uncertainty of radiative forcing attributed to dust and the resulting range of climate perturbations calculated by models remain a useful test of our understanding of the mechanisms relating dust radiative forcing to the climate response.

EARLINET correlative measurements for CALIPSO

The European Aerosol Research Lidar Network (EARLINET) was established in 2000 to derive a comprehensive, quantitative, and statistically significant data base for the aerosol distribution on the European scale. At present, EARLINET consists of 25 stations: 16 Raman lidar stations, including 8 multi-wavelength Raman lidar stations which are used to retrieve aerosol microphysical properties. EARLINET performs a rigorous quality assurance program for instruments and evaluation algorithms. All stations measure simultaneously on a predefined schedule at three dates per week to obtain unbiased data for climatological studies. Since June 2006 the first backscatter lidar is operational aboard the CALIPSO satellite. EARLINET represents an excellent tool to validate CALIPSO lidar data on a continental scale. Aerosol extinction and lidar ratio measurements provided by the network will be particularly important for that validation. The measurement strategy of EARLINET is as follows: Measurements are performed at all stations within 80 km from the overpasses and additionally at the lidar station which is closest to the actually overpassed site. If a multi-wavelength Raman lidar station is overpassed then also the next closest 3+2 station performs a measurement. Altogether we performed more than 1000 correlative observations for CALIPSO between June 2006 and June 2007. Direct intercomparisons between CALIPSO profiles and attenuated backscatter profiles obtained by EARLINET lidars look very promising. Two measurement examples are used to discuss the potential of multi-wavelength Raman lidar observations for the validation and optimization of the CALIOP Scene Classification Algorithm. Correlative observations with multi-wavelength Raman lidars provide also the data base for a harmonization of the CALIPSO aerosol data and the data collected in future ESA lidar-in-space missions.

Meningitis and Climate: From Science to Practice

Meningococcal meningitis is a climate sensitive infectious disease. The regional extent of the Meningitis Belt in Africa, where the majority of epidemics occur, was originally defined by Lapeysonnie in the 1960s. A combination of climatic and environmental conditions and biological and social factors have been associated to the spatial and temporal patterns of epidemics observed since the disease first emerged in West Africa over a century ago. However, there is still a lack of knowledge and data that would allow disentangling the relative effects of the diverse risk factors upon epidemics. The Meningitis Environmental Risk Information Technologies Initiative (MERIT), a collaborative research-to-practice consortium, seeks to inform national and regional prevention and control strategies across the African Meningitis Belt through the provision of new data and tools that better determine risk factors. In particular MERIT seeks to consolidate a body of knowledge that provides evidence of the contribution of climatic and environmental factors to seasonal and year-to-year variations in meningococcal meningitis incidence at both district and national scales. Here we review recent research and practice seeking to provide useful information for the epidemic response strategy of National Ministries of Health in the Meningitis Belt of Africa. In particular the research and derived tools described in this paper have focused at “getting science into policy and practice” by engaging with practitioner communities under the umbrella of MERIT to ensure the relevance of their work to operational decision-making. We limit our focus to that of reactive vaccination for meningococcal meningitis. Important but external to our discussion is the development and implementation of the new conjugate vaccine, which specifically targets meningococcus A.

Predicting the mineral composition of dust aerosols: Insights from elemental composition measured at the Izaña Observatory

Regional variations of dust mineral composition are fundamental to climate impacts but generally neglected in climate models. A challenge for models is that atlases of soil composition are derived from measurements following wet sieving, which destroys the aggregates potentially emitted from the soil. Aggregates are crucial to simulating the observed size distribution of emitted soil particles. We use an extension of brittle fragmentation theory in a global dust model to account for these aggregates. Our method reproduces the size-resolved dust concentration along with the approximately size-invariant fractional abundance of elements like Fe and Al in the decade-long aerosol record from the Izaña Observatory, off the coast of West Africa. By distinguishing between Fe in structural and free forms, we can attribute improved model behavior to aggregation of Fe and Al-rich clay particles. We also demonstrate the importance of size-resolved measurements along with elemental composition analysis to constrain models.

Improving decision-making activities for meningitis and malaria

Public health professionals are increasingly concerned about the potential impact that climate variability and change can have on infectious disease. The International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) is developing new products to increase the public health community’s capacity to understand, use and demand the appropriate climate data and climate information to mitigate the public health impacts of climate on infectious disease, in particular meningitis and malaria. In this paper, we present the new and improved products that have been developed for: (i) estimating dust aerosol for forecasting risks of meningitis and (ii) for monitoring temperature and rainfall and integrating them into a vectorial capacity model for forecasting risks of malaria epidemics. We also present how the products have been integrated into a knowledge system (IRI Data Library Map Room, SERVIR) to support the use of climate and environmental information in climate-sensitive health decision-making.

Ozone source apportionment during peak summer events oversouthwestern Europe

It is well established that in Europe, high O3 concentrations are most pronounced in southern/Mediterranean countries due to the more favorable climatological conditions for its formation. However, the contribution of the different sources of precursors to O3 formation within each country relative to the imported (regional and hemispheric) O3 is poorly quantified. This lack of quantitative knowledge prevents local authorities from effectively designing plans that reduce the 15 exceedances of the O3 Target Value set by the European Air Quality Directive. O3 source attribution is a challenge because the concentration at each location and time results not only from local biogenic and anthropogenic precursors, but also from the transport of O3 and precursors from neighbouring regions, O3 regional and hemispheric transport and stratospheric O3 injections. The main goal of this study is to provide a first quantitative estimation of the contribution of the main anthropogenic activity sectors to peak O3 events in Spain relative to the contribution of imported (regional and hemispheric) O3. We also 20 assess the potential of our source apportionment method to improve O3 modelling. Our study applies and thoroughly evaluates a countrywide O3 source apportionment method implemented in the CALIOPE air quality forecast system for Spain at high resolution (4 x 4 km) over a 10-day period characterized by typical summer conditions in the Iberian Peninsula (IP). The method tags both O3 and its gas precursor emissions from source sectors within one simulation and each tagged species is subject to the typical physical processes (advection, vertical mixing, deposition, emission and chemistry) as the actual 25 conditions remain unperturbed. We quantify the individual contributions of the largest NOx local sources to high O3 concentrations compared to the contribution of imported O3. We show for the first time that imported O3 is the largest input to the ground-level O3 concentration in the IP, accounting for 46% to 68 % of the daily mean O3 concentration during exceedances of the European Target Value. The hourly imported O3 increases during typical northwestern advections (70-90%, 60-80 μg/m), and decreases during typical stagnant conditions (30-40%, 30-60 μg/m) due to the local NO titration. During stagnant 30 conditions, the local anthropogenic precursors control the O3 peaks in areas downwind of the main urban and industrial regions (up to 40% in hourly peaks). We also show that ground-level O3 concentrations are strongly affected by vertical mixing of O3rich layers present in the free troposphere, which result from local/regional layering and accumulation, and