Natalie M. Mahowald

The Community Earth System Model: A Framework for Collaborative Research

The Community Earth System Model (CESM) is a flexible and extensible community tool used to investigate a diverse set of Earth system interactions across multiple time and space scales. This global coupled model significantly extends its predecessor, the Community Climate System Model, by incorporating new Earth system simulation capabilities. These comprise the ability to simulate biogeochemical cycles, including those of carbon and nitrogen, a variety of atmospheric chemistry options, the Greenland Ice Sheet, and an atmosphere that extends to the lower thermosphere. These and other new model capabilities are enabling investigations into a wide range of pressing scientific questions, providing new foresight into possible future climates and increasing our collective knowledge about the behavior and interactions of the Earth system. Simulations with numerous configurations of the CESM have been provided to phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and are being analyzed by the broad com...

Dust sources and deposition during the last glacial maximum and current climate: A comparison of model results with paleodata from ice cores and marine sediments

Mineral dust aerosols in the atmosphere have the potential to affect the global climate by influencing the radiative balance of the atmosphere and the supply of micronutrients to the ocean. Ice and marine sediment cores indicate that dust deposition from the atmosphere was at some locations 2–20 times greater during glacial periods, raising the possibility that mineral aerosols might have contributed to climate change on glacial-interglacial time scales. To address this question, we have used linked terrestrial biosphere, dust source, and atmospheric transport models to simulate the dust cycle in the atmosphere for current and last glacial maximum (LGM) climates. We obtain a 2.5-fold higher dust loading in the entire atmosphere and a twenty-fold higher loading in high latitudes, in LGM relative to present. Comparisons to a compilation of atmospheric dust deposition flux estimates for LGM and present in marine sediment and ice cores show that the simulated flux ratios are broadly in agreement with observations; differences suggest where further improvements in the simple dust model could be made. The simulated increase in high-latitude dustiness depends on the expansion of unvegetated areas, especially in the high latitudes and in central Asia, caused by a combination of increased aridity and low atmospheric [CO2]. The existence of these dust source areas at the LGM is supported by pollen data and loess distribution in the northern continents. These results point to a role for vegetation feedbacks, including climate effects and physiological effects of low [CO2], in modulating the atmospheric distribution of dust.

Change in atmospheric mineral aerosols in response to climate: Last glacial period, preindustrial, modern, and doubled carbon dioxide climates

Desert dust simulations generated by the National Center for Atmospheric Researchs Community Climate System Model for the current climate are shown to be consistent with present day satellite and deposition data. The response of the dust cycle to last glacial maximum, preindustrial, modern, and doubled-carbon dioxide climates is analyzed. Only natural (non-land use related) dust sources are included in this simulation. Similar to some previous studies, dust production mainly responds to changes in the source areas from vegetation changes, not from winds or soil moisture changes alone. This model simulates a +92%, +33%, and −60% change in dust loading for the last glacial maximum, preindustrial, and doubled-carbon dioxide climate, respectively, when impacts of carbon dioxide fertilization on vegetation are included in the model. Terrestrial sediment records from the last glacial maximum compiled here indicate a large underestimate of deposition in continental regions, probably due to the lack of simulation of glaciogenic dust sources. In order to include the glaciogenic dust sources as a first approximation, we designate the location of these sources, and infer the size of the sources using an inversion method that best matches the available data. The inclusion of these inferred glaciogenic dust sources increases our dust flux in the last glacial maximum from 2.1 to 3.3 times current deposition.

Global distribution of atmospheric phosphorus sources, concentrations and deposition rates, and anthropogenic impacts

A worldwide compilation of atmospheric total phosphorus (TP) and phosphate (PO4) concentration and deposition flux observations are combined with transport model simulations to derive the global distribution of concentrations and deposition fluxes of TP and PO4. Our results suggest that mineral aerosols are the dominant source of TP on a global scale (82%), with primary biogenic particles (12%) and combustion sources (5%) important in nondusty regions. Globally averaged anthropogenic inputs are estimated to be similar to 5 and 15% for TP and PO4, respectively, and may contribute as much as 50% to the deposition over the oligotrophic ocean where productivity may be phosphorus-limited. There is a net loss of TP from many (but not all) land ecosystems and a net gain of TP by the oceans (560 Gg P a(-1)). More measurements of atmospheric TP and PO4 will assist in reducing uncertainties in our understanding of the role that atmospheric phosphorus may play in global biogeochemistry.

Representations of transport, convection, and the hydrologic cycle in chemical transport models: Implications for the modeling of short-lived and soluble species

We compare chemical transport simulations performed in a model using archived meteorological data (an off-line transport model) to those performed in a model in which the meteorological data are predicted every time step (an on-line model). We identify the errors associated with using data sampled at timescales much longer than those operating in the atmosphere or in the on-line model, and strategies for ameleorating those errors. The evaluation is performed in the context of a global off-line chemical transport model called the Model of Atmospheric Transport and Chemistry (MATCH) for three test problems: (1) the passive advection of blobs initially concentrated in the lower and upper troposphere; (2) the surface emission of radon and its decay to lead; and (3) the removal of lead from the atmosphere by wet and dry deposition processes. These problems exercise the important processes of transport by resolved scale winds, rapid transport by smaller scale convection processes, and wet removal (which depends on the representation of the hydrologic cycle). We show that the errors in off-line model simulations (compared to the on-line simulations) can be made small when the sampling interval is order 6 hours or less. We also show that one can accurately reproduce the subgrid-scale processes within the off-line model, rather than needing to archive the results of those processes as input to the off-line model. This suggests that for the spatial and temporal scales treated in global models it is possible to treat many problems nearly as accurately in an off-line mode as one can with an on-line treatment.

Impact of anthropogenic atmospheric nitrogen and sulfur deposition on ocean acidification and the inorganic carbon system

Fossil fuel combustion and agriculture result in atmospheric deposition of 0.8 Tmol/yr reactive sulfur and 2.7 Tmol/yr nitrogen to the coastal and open ocean near major source regions in North America, Europe, and South and East Asia. Atmospheric inputs of dissociation products of strong acids (HNO3 and H2SO4) and bases (NH3) alter surface seawater alkalinity, pH, and inorganic carbon storage. We quantify the biogeochemical impacts by using atmosphere and ocean models. The direct acid/base flux to the ocean is predominately acidic (reducing total alkalinity) in the temperate Northern Hemisphere and alkaline in the tropics because of ammonia inputs. However, because most of the excess ammonia is nitrified to nitrate (NO3−) in the upper ocean, the effective net atmospheric input is acidic almost everywhere. The decrease in surface alkalinity drives a net air–sea efflux of CO2, reducing surface dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC); the alkalinity and DIC changes mostly offset each other, and the decline in surface pH is small. Additional impacts arise from nitrogen fertilization, leading to elevated primary production and biological DIC drawdown that reverses in some places the sign of the surface pH and air–sea CO2 flux perturbations. On a global scale, the alterations in surface water chemistry from anthropogenic nitrogen and sulfur deposition are a few percent of the acidification and DIC increases due to the oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO2. However, the impacts are more substantial in coastal waters, where the ecosystem responses to ocean acidification could have the most severe implications for mankind.

Toxicity of atmospheric aerosols on marine phytoplankton

Atmospheric aerosol deposition is an important source of nutrients and trace metals to the open ocean that can enhance ocean productivity and carbon sequestration and thus influence atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations and climate. Using aerosol samples from different back trajectories in incubation experiments with natural communities, we demonstrate that the response of phytoplankton growth to aerosol additions depends on specific components in aerosols and differs across phytoplankton species. Aerosol additions enhanced growth by releasing nitrogen and phosphorus, but not all aerosols stimulated growth. Toxic effects were observed with some aerosols, where the toxicity affected picoeukaryotes and Synechococcus but not Prochlorococcus. We suggest that the toxicity could be due to high copper concentrations in these aerosols and support this by laboratory copper toxicity tests preformed with Synechococcus cultures. However, it is possible that other elements present in the aerosols or unknown synergistic effects between these elements could have also contributed to the toxic effect. Anthropogenic emissions are increasing atmospheric copper deposition sharply, and based on coupled atmosphere–ocean calculations, we show that this deposition can potentially alter patterns of marine primary production and community structure in high aerosol, low chlorophyll areas, particularly in the Bay of Bengal and downwind of South and East Asia.

Covariant Glacial-Interglacial Dust Fluxes in the Equatorial Pacific and Antarctica

Dust plays a critical role in Earths climate system and serves as a natural source of iron and other micronutrients to remote regions of the ocean. We have generated records of dust deposition over the past 500,000 years at three sites spanning the breadth of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Equatorial Pacific dust fluxes are highly correlated with global ice volume and with dust fluxes to Antarctica, which suggests that dust generation in interhemispheric source regions exhibited a common response to climate change over late-Pleistocene glacial cycles. Our results provide quantitative constraints on the variability of aeolian iron supply to the equatorial Pacific Ocean and, more generally, on the potential contribution of dust to past climate change and to related changes in biogeochemical cycles.

A model for studies of tropospheric photochemistry: Description, global distributions, and evaluation

A model of atmospheric photochemistry and transport has been developed and applied toward investigating global tropospheric chemistry. The Model of Atmospheric Transport and Chemistry - Max-Planck-Institute for Chemistry version (MATCH-MPIC) is described and key characteristics of its global simulation are presented and compared to available observations. MATCH-MPIC is an “offline” model which reads in gridded time-dependent values for the most basic meteorological parameters (e.g., temperature, surface pressure, horizontal winds), then uses these to compute further meteorological parameters required for atmospheric chemistry simulations (convective transport, cloud microphysics, etc.). The meteorology component of MATCH-MPIC simulates transport by advection, convection, and dry turbulent mixing, as well as the full tropospheric hydrological cycle (water vapor transport, condensation, evaporation, and precipitation). The photochemistry component of MATCH-MPIC represents the major known sources (e.g., industry, biomass burning), transformations (chemical reactions and photolysis), and sinks (e.g., wet and dry deposition) which affect the O3hyphen;HOx-NOy-CH4-CO photochemical framework of the “background” troposphere. The results of two versions of the model are considered, focusing on the more recent version. O3 is in relatively good agreement with observed soundings, although it is generally underestimated at low levels and overestimated at high levels, particularly for the more recent version of the model. We conclude that the simulated stratosphere-troposphere flux of O3 is too large, despite the fact that the total flux is 1100 Tg(O3)/yr, whereas the upper limit estimated in recent literature is over 1400 Tg(O3)/yr. The OH distribution yields a tropospheric CH4 lifetime of 10.1 years, in contrast to the lifetime of 7.8 years in the earlier model version, which nearly spans the range of current estimates in the literature (7.5–10.2 years). Surface CO mixing ratios are in good agreement with observations. NO is generally underestimated, a problem similar to what has also been found in several other recent model studies. HNO3 is also considerably underestimated. H2O2 and CH3OOH, on the other hand, are in relatively good agreement with available observations, though both tend to be underestimated at high concentrations and overestimated at low concentrations. Possible reasons for these differences are considered.

Climate Sensitivity Estimated from Temperature Reconstructions of the Last Glacial Maximum

Last Glacial Maximum temperature reconstructions and model simulations can constrain the equilibrium climate sensitivity. Assessing the impact of future anthropogenic carbon emissions is currently impeded by uncertainties in our knowledge of equilibrium climate sensitivity to atmospheric carbon dioxide doubling. Previous studies suggest 3 kelvin (K) as the best estimate, 2 to 4.5 K as the 66% probability range, and nonzero probabilities for much higher values, the latter implying a small chance of high-impact climate changes that would be difficult to avoid. Here, combining extensive sea and land surface temperature reconstructions from the Last Glacial Maximum with climate model simulations, we estimate a lower median (2.3 K) and reduced uncertainty (1.7 to 2.6 K as the 66% probability range, which can be widened using alternate assumptions or data subsets). Assuming that paleoclimatic constraints apply to the future, as predicted by our model, these results imply a lower probability of imminent extreme climatic change than previously thought.