Caroline Freund

All in the family : state capture in Tunisia

This paper examines the relationship between entry regulation and the business interests of former President Ben Alis family using firm-level data from Tunisia. Connected firms account for a disproportionate share of aggregate employment, output and profits, especially in sectors subject to authorization and restrictions on FDI. Quantile regressions show that profit and market share premia from being connected increase along the firm-size distribution, especially in highly regulated sectors. These patterns are partly explained by Ben Alis relatives sorting into the most profitable sectors. The market shares of connected firms are positively correlated with exit and concentration rates in highly regulated sectors. Although causality is difficult to establish, the results are consistent with the hypothesis that the Ben Ali clan abused entry regulation for private gain at the expense of reduced competition.(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Multinational Investors as Export Superstars: How Emerging-Market Governments Can Reshape Comparative Advantage

This paper investigates three cases—Malaysia, Costa Rica, and Morocco—in which host authorities were successful in using foreign direct investment to change the export profile of the domestic economy. Each case highlights the importance of first-mover firms, and clusters of follower firms, in oligopolistic industries, whose emergence changes the revealed comparative advantage of the domestic economy. The results from these three cases are shown to be consistent with a broader body of econometric analysis. An important implication is that small emerging markets may be better equipped to transform their production structures and stimulate exports with foreign direct investment than by promoting broad domestic entrepreneurship. The authors find that policy changes in the host country can have very large effects if they alter the entry of multinationals or the behavior of large firms.

The Origins and Dynamics of Export Superstars

This paper uses firm-level data on manufacturing trade from 40 developing countries to explore how the five largest exporters in a country contribute to export growth and diversification. The origins of these firms are also studied. The data show that the top five exporters account for on average one third of exports, over half of export growth, and almost all of export diversification over a five-year period. Controlling for country and industry-fixed effects, the share of exports in the top five firms increases significantly as exports grow. Most top five exporters were already large five years ago or are new firms; it is extremely rare for these export super- stars to emerge from the bottom half of the firm-size distribution. They are producers, not traders, and are primarily foreign owned.

The Origins of the Superrich: The Billionaire Characteristics Database

This working paper presents a new dataset on the sources of billionaire wealth and uses it to describe changes in extreme wealth in the United States, Europe, and other advanced countries. The data classify wealth as either self-made or inherited and identify the company and industry from which it comes. Among self-made billionaires, individuals are further classified as company founders, executives, politically-connected, or in finance. Data analysis shows that the superrich in the United States are more dynamic than in Europe. Just over half of European billionaires inherited their fortunes, as compared with one-third in the United States. The median age of a company of a European billionaire is nearly 20 years older than that of an American billionaire. Traditional sectors explain more than half of the rise in wealth in Europe; the financial sector and technology-related sectors together are largely responsible for the rise in US wealth. There is some evidence that rents are higher in the United States than Europe, as not only is the number of US billionaires expanding rapidly, but US billionaires are also getting richer on average over time, especially when wealth is connected to resources, nontradables, or finance.

Global Imbalances and the Trade Slowdown

From the mid-1990s until the financial crisis, global trade grew twice as fast as global income, far faster than in previous or subsequent periods. During this period of rapid trade growth, global current account imbalances also expanded rapidly. If excess savings in some countries financed more consumption and investment in other countries, then trade and trade imbalances would move together. Greater capital mobility thus may help to explain why trade surged in the period before 2007 and why it slowed more sharply in later years when demand stalled. Consistent with this explanation, the countries that contributed most to global trade growth during the period of rapid trade growth also experienced large imbalances. Constraining trade deficits to historical norms, this paper shows that trade growth would have been more moderate in the late 1990s and early 2000s and stronger in subsequent years. Going forward, assuming global imbalances remain relatively unconstrained, the relationship between trade growth and income growth will likely be less stable than before the 1990s.

Global Competition and the Rise of China

Using firm level data, the authors examine how global industrial concentration has changed over the last decade in relation to the rise of China. Between 2006 and 2014, global concentration has declined in most industries and is falling on average across all industries, while firms at the top of the distribution are experiencing significant churning. The resulting enhanced industrial competition is partly attributable to the rising market shares of firms from China and other emerging markets at the expense of incumbent industry leaders. The authors further show evidence of global allocative efficiency — highly productive firms tend to be larger and grow faster. Global concentration has, however, risen significantly in several industries where Chinese state-owned enterprises (SOEs) dominate, and China’s SOEs are on average too large and expanding too fast given their low levels of productivity.

Effects of Consumption Taxes on Real Exchange Rates and Trade Balances

This paper examines the effects of border-adjusted consumption taxes (mainly value added taxes or VATs) in a sample of 34 advanced economies from 1970 through 2015. We find that the real exchange rate tends to rise by the full amount of any consumption tax increase, with little effect on the current account balance and modest offsetting effects on the trade and income balances. Case studies suggest that adjustment comes initially through prices. We note that the border-adjusted cash flow tax of the House Republicans differs in important ways from consumption taxes used in our study, which raises the possibility of a slower adjustment process with temporarily larger trade effects.

Manufacturing and the 2016 Election: An Analysis of US Presidential Election Data

Much of the public discourse and media analysis of the surprise outcome of the 2016 US presidential election has emphasized the role of manufacturing workers. This paper examines the importance of manufacturing jobs and job loss as determinants of voting patterns using county-level voting data from recent presidential elections. The share of employment in the manufacturing sector and long-run manufacturing job loss at the county level are not statistically significant in explaining the change in Republican vote shares from 2012 to 2016, when controlling for standard voting determinants. However, the change in the Republican vote share is positively correlated with manufacturing in predominantly white counties and negatively correlated with manufacturing in ethnically diverse counties, with these effects roughly offsetting each other. The paper further shows that this polarization between white and nonwhite manufacturing counties is more closely associated with polarizing candidates than a polarized electorate.