Caroline Friendship

Distinguishing and Combining Risks for Sexual and Violent Recidivism

Abstract: A two‐dimensional risk assessment system for sexual offenders was created that can classify them for risk of sexual recidivism, risk of nonsexual violent recidivism, and the composite risk of reconviction for sexual or nonsexual assaults. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses of separate follow‐up samples were used for cross‐validation. The system is easier to score than Static‐99, and substantially easier to score than the VRAG or SORAG, while yielding comparable predictive accuracy in cross‐validation samples with follow‐ups from 2 years to 19 years. ROC AUC coefficients between .74 and .81 were found for the different scales and samples.

The Relationship Between Static and Dynamic Risk Factors and Reconviction in a Sample of U.K. Child Abusers

This study examined how well historical information and psychometric data predicted sexual recidivism in a sample of child abusers about to undergo group-based cognitive behavioral treatment in the community. Static, historical factors, as measured by the Static-99 (R. K. Hanson & D. Thornton, 2000), significantly predicted recidivism over the 6-year follow-up period. High-risk men were over 5 times more likely to be reconvicted for a sexual offence compared to low-risk men. Adding psychometric measures of dynamic risk (e.g., pro-offending attitudes, socio-affective problems) significantly increased the accuracy of risk prediction beyond the level achieved by the actuarial assessment of static factors. This result indicates the importance of considering dynamic risk factors in any comprehensive risk protocol.

Assessing reconviction, reoffending and recidivism in a sample of UK sexual offenders

Purpose. The rate of sexual reconviction for sexual offenders is known to be low. Sexual reconviction, however, is currently the most commonly used outcome measure in sex offender treatment evaluation studies. It is expected that sex offender treatment programmes will reduce the likelihood of reconviction amongst participants. A low base rate of sexual reconviction means that any reduction in reconviction (which could be attributed to treatment) will be small and unlikely to be statistically significant. This study aimed to assess other offence-related outcomes for sexual offenders, in addition to reconviction. Methods. The sample comprised 173 sexual offenders who had completed a community sex offender treatment programme. Follow-up information was collected forthe sample from programme files containing multi-agency information. Official reconviction rates were also calculated using both Home Office and police data. Results. Collecting evidence of any offence-related sexual behaviour during this study multiplied the samples sexual reconviction rate by a factor of 5.3. Conclusions. The results show that broadening the outcome measure under observation indicates a higher level of offence-related sexual behaviour displayed by sexual offenders than reflected by reconviction data. These results have implications for the outcomes measured in treatment evaluation research for sexual offenders.

The violent reconvictions of sexual offenders

The violent reconvictions of a sample of sexual offenders discharged from prison between 1992 and 1996 (who had not been reconvicted of a sexual offence) were examined. The hypothesis was that a proportion of these violent reconvictions would have a sexual motivation. The sample consisted of 104 adult male sexual offenders for whom detailed information regarding their violent reconviction was available. The sample was categorized according to the motivation of the violent reconviction. It was found that a proportion of the violent reconvictions were sexually motivated (12%) and that some of these had resulted from an original charge for a sexual offence. Significant differences were found between the sexual motivation and violent motivation group on the number of criminal history and victim characteristic variables. It was concluded that, in the case of sexual offenders, violent convictions might mask the true motivation of the offence.

A typology of child abduction events

Purpose. This study examined the offence of child abduction in England and Wales. Specifically, the relationship of perpetrator to victim and motivation of the perpetrator were considered. It was hypothesized that discrete types of child abduction would be identifiable. Methods. The sample consisted of all offenders convicted of child abduction between 1993 and 1995 identified by the Offenders Index. For each conviction further data were gathered from police records at New Scotland Yard. The resulting sample comprised 149 offenders. These offenders were categorized in terms of relationship to victim and motivation. Results. Four different motivational types of child abduction were identified: sexual, custodial, maternal desire, and ‘other’. The majority of child abductions were sexually motivated, and most child abductions involved female victims. Conclusions. Offence categories are useful for summarizing criminal data but mask factors such as relationship of the perpetrator to the victim, and motivation.

A follow-up study of sex offenders treated by Thames Valley Sex Offender Groupwork Programme, 1995-1999

The following paper is a reconviction study of 183 sex offenders treated by the Thames Valley Project between 1995 and 1999. Some demographic details are provided about the sample. Subjects were monitored for a mean of 3.9 years. A total of 10 subjects (5.4% of total) were reconvicted for a further sexual offence. A further 19 men (10.3%) either had allegations made against them or committed a behaviour that may have involved or been the preparation for further sexual offending, defined here as “recidivism”. Details about post-treatment behaviour were drawn from three sources: two national police databases which indicated any formal sexual reconviction and the files kept on each sex offender registered with Thames Valley Project (TVSOGP), a multi-funded community-based sex offender treatment programme. The pre-treatment re-conviction risk status of each man was calculated using part one of the Risk Matrix 2000 algorithm (static factors). Risk levels were compared for those where reconviction, re-offending or recidivism was identified and those where it was not and a correlation was found in the predicted direction although this was not statistically significant. The advantages and limitations of this kind of follow-up study are discussed, together with some recommendations for future research.

Understanding ‘What Works’: Accredited Cognitive Skills Programmes for Young Offenders:

This research assessed effectiveness of prison-based cognitive skills programmes for young offenders in England and Wales, using reconviction as the outcome measure. Reconviction rates were compared between offenders who started a programme (N= 1,534) and a matched comparison group who did not (N= 1,534). Programme participation did not lead to a statistically significant reduction in reconviction, at one- or two-years following discharge. However, when offenders who dropped out of a programme and their matched comparisons were excluded from analysis, the one-year reconviction rate for programme completers was statistically significantly lower (p <0.05).