Carolyn Logan

Selected chiefs, elected councillors and hybrid democrats: popular perspectives on the co-existence of democracy and traditional authority

The long-standing debate about the proper role for Africas traditional leaders in contemporary politics has intensified in the last two decades, as efforts to foster democratisation and decentralisation have brought competing claims to power and legitimacy to the fore, especially at the local level. Questions persist as to whether traditional authority and democratic governance are ultimately compatible or contradictory. Can the two be blended into viable and effective hybrid systems? Or do the potentially anti-democratic features of traditional systems present insurmountable obstacles to an acceptable model of integration? Survey data collected by the Afrobarometer indicate that Africans who live under these dual systems of authority do not draw as sharp a distinction between hereditary chiefs and elected local government officials as most analysts would expect. In fact, popular evaluations of selected and elected leaders are strongly and positively linked. They appear to be consistently shaped by each individuals ‘leadership affect’, and by an understanding of chiefs and elected officials as common players in a single, integrated political system, rather than as opponents in a sharply bifurcated one. Moreover, there is no evident conflict between supporting traditional leadership and being a committed and active democrat. Rather than finding themselves trapped between two competing spheres of political authority, Africans appear to have adapted to the hybridisation of their political institutions more seamlessly than many have anticipated or assumed.

Museveni and the 2011 Ugandan election: did the money matter?

In February 2011, Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni resoundingly won re-election. In the aftermath of the vote, which many had predicted would be competitive, analysts and opposition supporters ascribed Musevenis victory to massive pre-election spending on public goods, creation of new administrative districts, and vote buying. While the opposition could not compete with Museveni and his National Resistance Movement in access to resources, our analyses of survey data, from two pre-election surveys conducted by Afrobarometer in November/December 2010 and January 2011, and a pre- and post-election panel study, find little evidence that Museveni benefited significantly from public goods outlays, district creation, and vote buying. Additionally, we find little evidence that fear and intimidation were responsible for the results. Instead, the data suggest that Musevenis re-election was driven by an uninspiring opposition slate, widespread satisfaction with macro-economic growth, and an improved security situation, particularly in the Northern Region.

Looking Toward the Future: Alternations in Power and Popular Perspectives on Democratic Durability in Africa

Can democracy consolidate in electoral systems without power alternations? Using public attitude data collected by the Afrobarometer in 16 sub-Saharan African countries (2005-2006), as well as country-level variables, this study examines how alternations in power that result from electoral contests affect mass perceptions of democratic durability. By examining durability, we shift the focus from individuals’ own preferences and attitudes regarding democracy to their perceptions about the degree of societal commitment to a democratic regime. Multilevel analysis finds that a lack of alternation among power holders undermines popular confidence that democracy, weak as it may be, will endure. Moreover, the gap in perceptions of democratic durability between the political majority and the minority narrows considerably in systems where one or more alternations have occurred.

Looking Toward the Future

Can democracy consolidate in electoral systems without power alternations? Using public attitude data collected by the Afrobarometer in 16 sub-Saharan African countries (2005-2006), as well as country-level variables, this study examines how alternations in power that result from electoral contests affect mass perceptions of democratic durability. By examining durability, we shift the focus from individuals’ own preferences and attitudes regarding democracy to their perceptions about the degree of societal commitment to a democratic regime. Multilevel analysis finds that a lack of alternation among power holders undermines popular confidence that democracy, weak as it may be, will endure. Moreover, the gap in perceptions of democratic durability between the political majority and the minority narrows considerably in systems where one or more alternations have occurred.