Michael Bratton

Neopatrimonial regimes and political transitions in Africa

This article proposes revisions to the theory of political transitions by analyzing patterns of recent popular challenges to neopatrimonial rule in Africa. The approach is explicitly comparative, based on contrasts between Africa and the rest of the world and among regimes within Africa itself. Arguing against the prevalent view that transitions unfold unpredictably according to the contingent interplay of key political actors, the authors contend that the structure of the preexisting regime shapes the dynamics and sometimes even the outcomes of political transitions. They find that in contrast to transitions from corporatist regimes, transitions from neopatrimonial rule are likely to be driven by social protest, marked by struggles over patronage, and backed by emerging middle classes. Following Dahl, the authors compare African regimes on the basis of the degree of formal political participation and competition allowed. They find that regime variants—personal dictatorship, military oligarchy, plebiscitary one-party regime, and competitive one-party regime—are associated with distinctive transition dynamics. Whereas transitions from military oligarchies are typically managed from the top down and are relatively orderly, transitions from plebiscitary systems often occur discordantly through confrontational national conferences. A consolidated democracy is least likely to result from the abrupt collapse of a personal dictatorship and is most likely, though never guaranteed, from a graduated transition from a competitive one-party regime. In general, getting to democracy is problematic from all regimes that lack institutional traditions of political competition.

Public opinion, democracy, and market reform in Africa

This book is a ground-breaking exploration of public opinion in subSaharan Africa. Based on the Afrobarometer, a comprehensive crossnational survey research project, it reveals what ordinary Africans think of democracy and market reform, subjects about which almost nothing is otherwise known. The authors find that support for democracy in Africa is wide but shallow and that Africans feel trapped between state and market. Beyond multiparty elections, people want clean and accountable government. They will accept economic structural adjustment only if it is accompanied by an effective state, the availability of jobs, and an equitable society. What are the origins of these attitudes? Far from being constrained by social structure and cultural values, Africans learn about reform on the basis of knowledge, reasoning, and experience. Weighing supply and demand for reform, the authors reach sober conclusions about the varying prospects of African countries for attaining full-fledged democracy and markets.

Beyond the State: Civil Society and Associational Life in Africa

The current scholarly preoccupation with the state may obscure more than it reveals for students of politics in sub-Saharan Africa. The weakly formed state in Africa—beset by decline in economic production and political authority—is now retreating from overambitious attempts at social transformation. The time is therefore ripe for societal actors to play an enhanced role in political change. This article reviews the current literature on state-society relations in Africa with particular emphasis on the nature of African associational life and the extent to which it is taking on a politically organized form as an identifiable civil society. The author proposes a theoretical framework and research agenda that takes account of the capacity of either state or societal actors to exercise a range of options to engage or disengage.

The politics of government-NGO relations in Africa

Abstract Non-governmental organizations (NGOs), deservedly or not, have gained a reputation as the leading practitioners of rural development in Africa. African governments have responded ambiguously to the presence of these new agencies, on the one hand valuing the economic resources NGOs can raise, but resisting the political pluralization implied by popular development action. This article describes the growth of NGOs in Africa and proposes a framework for analyzing the dynamics of government-NGO relations. By means of examples drawn from Kenya and Zimbabwe, among other African countries, the article illustrates the strategies used by governments to exercise control, and by NGOs to assert autonomy. An argument is made that politics, rather than economics, best explain the contribution of NGOs to development, as well as the attitude of governments toward the burgeoning voluntary sector.

Governance and politics in Africa

Botswana, John Holm and Patrick Molutsi Burkina Fasso and Niger, Pearl Robinson Ghana, Naomi Chazan Kenya, Frank Holmquist et al Nigeria, Richard Joseph Rwanda, Catherine Newbury Senegal, Crawford Young and Babacar Kante Tanzania, Aili Mari Tripp Zaire, Janet MacGaffey.

Support for Democracy in Africa: Intrinsic or Instrumental?

Comparative analysis of original survey data from Ghana, Zambia and South Africa is used here to assess the attitudes of African citizens towards democracy. Is democracy valued intrinsically (as an end in itself) or instrumentally (for example, as a means to improving material living standards)? We find as much popular support for democracy in Africa as in other Third Wave regions but less satisfaction with the performance of elected governments. The fact that Africans support democracy while being discontented with its achievements implies a measure of intrinsic support that supersedes instrumental considerations. At the same time, approval of democracy remains performance-driven; but approval hinges less on the governments capacity at delivering economic goods than its ability to guarantee basic political rights. Our findings extend recent arguments about the importance of political goods in regime consolidation and call into question the conventional wisdom that governments in new democracies legitimate themselves mainly through economic performance.

Voting in Kenya: Putting Ethnicity in Perspective

Abstract Do Kenyans vote according to ethnic identities or policy interests? Based on results from a national probability sample survey conducted in December 2007, this article shows that, while ethnic origins drive voting patterns, elections in Kenya amount to more than a mere ethnic census. We start by reviewing how Kenyans see themselves, which is mainly in non-ethnic terms. We then report on how they see others, whom they fear will organize politically along ethnic lines. People therefore vote defensively in ethnic blocs, but not exclusively. In December 2007, they also took particular policy issues into account, including living standards, corruption and majimbo (federalism). We demonstrate that the relative weight that individuals grant to ethnic and policy voting depends in good part on how they define their group identities, with ‘ethnics’ engaging mainly in identity voting and ‘non-ethnics’ giving more weight to interests and issues.

State Building and Democratization in Sub-Saharan Africa Forwards, Backwards, or Together?

Across sub-Saharan Africa, new democracies emerge only in the context of relatively effective states. Using aggregate indicators of democracy and governance plus new public opinion data, the authors show which aspects of state building are most important. The scope of state infrastructure and the delivery of welfare services have little impact on democratization. But the establishment of a rule of law—as experienced through improvements in personal security and the popular perception that leaders respect the constitution—is critical to building democracy. But because the legitimacy of the state is itself a reciprocal product of democratization, studies of African states and regimes, presently separated, should be connected.

Political Participation in a New Democracy: Institutional Considerations From Zambia

Why, in a new African democracy, have citizens passed up opportunities for involvement in national political life? In explaining low levels of political participation in Zambia, this article tests competing arguments against an original set of survey data. It finds that gender is a better demographic predictor of participation than socioeconomic status and that attachments to traditional authority are conducive to political activism. Participation is shaped most powerfully, however, by the availability of political institutions that link citizen to state. Although institutional considerations are more important than cultural values in explaining participation, the former do not entirely displace the latter. Instead, the study finds a synergistic relationship between political party formation and citizen interest in politics in the early stages of building democracy. Theoretically, this finding suggests that the consolidation of political regimes, including democracy, is best conceived as a process of reciprocal codetermination between institution building and cultural change.

Voting intentions in Africa: ethnic, economic or partisan?

This paper offers a first comprehensive account of popular voting intentions in Africas new electoral democracies. With reference to aggregate and survey data from 16 countries, this paper shows that competitive elections in Africa are more than mere ethnic censuses or simple economic referenda. Instead, Africans engage in both ethnic and economic voting. Not surprisingly, people who belong to the ethnic group in power intend to support the ruling party, in contrast to those who feel a sense of discrimination against their cultural group. But, to an even greater extent, would-be voters in Africa consider policy performance, especially the governments perceived handling of unemployment, inflation, and income distribution. Moreover, a full account of the intended vote choice in Africa also requires recognition that citizens are motivated – sincerely or strategically – by partisan considerations; they vote for established ruling parties because they expect that incumbents will win. This paper shows that voters attempt to associate themselves with prospective winners because they wish to gain access to material benefits and to avoid retribution after the election. These dynamics are most evident in African countries where dominant parties restrict the range of electoral choice.