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Dive into the research topics where Carsten Detken is active.

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Featured researches published by Carsten Detken.


MPRA Paper | 2015

Comparing Different Early Warning Systems: Results from a Horse Race Competition Among Members of the Macro-Prudential Research Network

Lucia Alessi; António R. Antunes; Jan Babecký; Simon Baltussen; Markus Behn; Diana Bonfim; Oliver Bush; Carsten Detken; Jon Frost; Rodrigo Guimaraes; Tomas Havranek; Mark Joy; Karlo Kauko; Jakub Mateju; Nuno Monteiro; Benjamin Neudorfer; Tuomas A. Peltonen; Marek Rusnák; Paulo M. M. Rodrigues; Willem Schudel; Michael Sigmund; Hanno Stremmel; Katerina Smidkova; Ruben van Tilburg; Borek Vasicek; Diana Zigraiova

Over the recent decades researchers in academia and central banks have developed early warning systems (EWS) designed to warn policy makers of potential future economic and financial crises. These EWS are based on diverse approaches and empirical models. In this paper we compare the performance of nine distinct models for predicting banking crises resulting from the work of the Macroprudential Research Network (MaRs) initiated by the European System of Central Banks. In order to ensure comparability, all models use the same database of crises created by MaRs and comparable sets of potential early warning indicators. We evaluate the models’ relative usefulness by comparing the ratios of false alarms and missed crises and discuss implications for pratical use and future research. We find that multivariate models, in their many appearances, have great potential added value over simple signalling models. One of the main policy recommendations coming from this exercise is that policy makers can benefit from taking a broad methodological approach when they develop models to set macro-prudential instruments.


European Journal of Political Economy | 2011

Quasi real time early warning indicators for costly asset price boom/bust cycles: A role for global liquidity

Lucia Alessi; Carsten Detken


Conference on Macroeconomic Policies in the World Economy | 2004

Asset Price Booms and Monetary Policy

Carsten Detken; Frank Smets


Archive | 2007

Liquidity Shocks and Asset Price Boom/Bust Cycles

Ramón Adalid; Carsten Detken


International Finance | 2000

The Euro and International Capital Markets

Carsten Detken; Philipp Hartmann


AUSTRALIAN ECONOMIC PAPERS | 2002

Model Uncertainty and the Equilibrium Value of the Real Effective Euro Exchange Rate

Carsten Detken; Alistair Dieppe; Jerome Henry; Carmen Marin; Frank Smets


Economic Policy | 2002

Features of the euro's role in international financial markets

Carsten Detken; Philipp Hartmann


Journal of Financial Stability | 2017

Identifying Excessive Credit Growth and Leverage

Lucia Alessi; Carsten Detken


Australian Economic Papers | 2002

Determinants of the Effective Real Exchange Rate of the Synthetic Euro: Alternative Methodological Approaches

Carsten Detken; Alistair Dieppe; Jerome Henry; Frank Smets; Carmen Marin


Archive | 2001

Monetary Policy and Fears of Financial Instability

Vincent Brousseau; Carsten Detken

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