Carsten Detken
European Central Bank
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Featured researches published by Carsten Detken.
MPRA Paper | 2015
Lucia Alessi; António R. Antunes; Jan Babecký; Simon Baltussen; Markus Behn; Diana Bonfim; Oliver Bush; Carsten Detken; Jon Frost; Rodrigo Guimaraes; Tomas Havranek; Mark Joy; Karlo Kauko; Jakub Mateju; Nuno Monteiro; Benjamin Neudorfer; Tuomas A. Peltonen; Marek Rusnák; Paulo M. M. Rodrigues; Willem Schudel; Michael Sigmund; Hanno Stremmel; Katerina Smidkova; Ruben van Tilburg; Borek Vasicek; Diana Zigraiova
Over the recent decades researchers in academia and central banks have developed early warning systems (EWS) designed to warn policy makers of potential future economic and financial crises. These EWS are based on diverse approaches and empirical models. In this paper we compare the performance of nine distinct models for predicting banking crises resulting from the work of the Macroprudential Research Network (MaRs) initiated by the European System of Central Banks. In order to ensure comparability, all models use the same database of crises created by MaRs and comparable sets of potential early warning indicators. We evaluate the models’ relative usefulness by comparing the ratios of false alarms and missed crises and discuss implications for pratical use and future research. We find that multivariate models, in their many appearances, have great potential added value over simple signalling models. One of the main policy recommendations coming from this exercise is that policy makers can benefit from taking a broad methodological approach when they develop models to set macro-prudential instruments.
European Journal of Political Economy | 2011
Lucia Alessi; Carsten Detken
Conference on Macroeconomic Policies in the World Economy | 2004
Carsten Detken; Frank Smets
Archive | 2007
Ramón Adalid; Carsten Detken
International Finance | 2000
Carsten Detken; Philipp Hartmann
AUSTRALIAN ECONOMIC PAPERS | 2002
Carsten Detken; Alistair Dieppe; Jerome Henry; Carmen Marin; Frank Smets
Economic Policy | 2002
Carsten Detken; Philipp Hartmann
Journal of Financial Stability | 2017
Lucia Alessi; Carsten Detken
Australian Economic Papers | 2002
Carsten Detken; Alistair Dieppe; Jerome Henry; Frank Smets; Carmen Marin
Archive | 2001
Vincent Brousseau; Carsten Detken