Alistair Dieppe

Determinants of the Effective Real Exchange Rate of the Synthetic Euro: Alternative Methodological Approaches

On the basis of historical data aggregated over the period 1973 to 2000, we have experimented with four different approaches to estimate the synthetic euros equilibrium exchange rate. Using a number of competing models with the same data set, variable definitions and sample period offers the possibility to assess the uncertainty surrounding such equilibrium levels, both from an empirical (different estimates) and a theoretical viewpoint (different specifications). In this exercise, the Rest of the World is proxied by the US, the UK, Japan and Switzerland, aggregated on the basis of trade weights. Copyright Blackwell Publishers Ltd/University of Adelaide and Flinders University of South Australia 2002.

The BEAR Toolbox

The Bayesian Estimation, Analysis and Regression toolbox (BEAR) is a comprehensive (Bayesian) (Panel) VAR toolbox for forecasting and policy analysis. BEAR is a MATLAB based toolbox which is easy for non-technical users to understand, augment and adapt. In particular, BEAR includes a user-friendly graphical interface which allows the tool to be used by country desk economists. Furthermore, BEAR is well documented, both within the code as well as including a detailed theoretical and users guide. BEAR includes state-of-the art applications such as sign and magnitude restrictions, conditional forecasts, Bayesian forecast evaluation measures, Bayesian Panel VAR using different prior distributions (for example hierarchical priors), etc. BEAR is specifically developed for transparently supplying a tool for state-of-the-art research and is planned to be further developed to always be at the frontier of economic research. JEL Classification: C11, C30, C87, E00, F00

Why Should the World Care? Analysis, Mechanisms and Spillovers of the Destination Based Border Adjusted Tax

Members of the US House of Representatives have proposed a major overhaul of the US corporate tax system, the so-called “destination-based border-adjusted cash-flow tax” (DBCFT). The literature on the economic implications and spillovers of such a DBCFT is scarce. This paper aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of the mechanics of such a tax, its macroeconomic implications as well as its global spillovers using a fully structural global multi-country model. Our results suggest that the short term macroeconomic impact of the reform would depend primarily on how permanent agents perceive the policy to be. Robustness scenarios show that the magnitude of the short term impact will also depend on the extent to which exporters are reimbursed by their domestic costs; what categories of goods are excluded from the reform; how the government uses the revenues generated by the border adjusted tax; and the pricing system used by exporters. Moreover, global spillovers will depend on how easy it is to replace imported goods by domestic production; whether US trading partners retaliate, and how financial markets in emerging economies react. If there is disequilibrium in relative prices in the short term, global economic activity spillovers could be strongly negative and world trade could decline substantially. JEL Classification: C68, E47, F41, F44, F62, O41