Cathal O'Donoghue

Building a static farm level spatial microsimulation model for rural development and agricultural policy analysis in Ireland

Using statistical matching techniques, economists can now create attribute rich datasets by matching across the common variables in two or more datasets. The farm level spatial microsimulation model developed in this paper uses one of many combinational optimisation techniques – simulated annealing – to match the Irish Census of Agriculture to the 2005 Irish National Farm Survey (NFS). Using the new spatially disaggregated farm population microdata this paper then briefly analyses the impact of future Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) reform on the distribution of family farm income in rural Ireland.

Alternative treatments of the cost of time in recreational demand models: an application to whitewater kayaking in Ireland

The measurement of travel costs in recreational demand modeling has been a contentious issue for many decades. This article explores the use of a number of alternative methods of incorporating time costs in the travel cost modeling process. Travel cost values where the opportunity cost of time is excluded, where it is included as a percentage of the individuals reported wage rate and where it based on an estimated wage from a secondary data source (the European Community Household Panel) are compared and then used in a conditional logit model to estimate the demand for whitewater kayaking in Ireland. We then evaluate the effect of different treatments of the cost of travel time on the welfare impacts of a number of different management scenarios for kayaking rivers in Ireland, and find that statistically significant differences emerge.

The Impact of Brazil's Tax-Benefit System on Inequality and Poverty

The Brazilian government raises taxes amounting to 35% of GDP and spends more than two thirds of this on social programmes. These shares are in pair with the OECD averages and well in excess of Latin America averages. However, while tax-benefit systems in most OECD countries reduce income disparities very significantly, the Brazilian government has been much less successful in alleviating inequality and poverty. Focussing on taxes and cash transfers, this paper investigates the impact of the government budget on the income distribution in Brazil, and evaluates its efficiency and effectiveness in reducing inequality and poverty. We present BRAHMS, a new tax-benefit microsimulation model for Brazil and illustrate its use by evaluating the impact of policy on economic inequality. It is argued that microsimulation provides a valuable analytical tool for policy makers in emerging and developing countries in particular.

Examining the factors associated with depression at the small area level in Ireland using spatial microsimulation techniques

Abstract The World Health Organisation (WHO) predicts that, world-wide, depression will be the second largest source of burden of disease by 2020. It is currently estimated that approximately 300,000 Irish people experience depression. To date no research has been carried out on the small area incidence of depression in Ireland. Although research has looked at access levels to acute psychiatric hospitals for each electoral division (ED) in Ireland, there is currently no research on the accessibility of mental health services to individuals with depression. This paper aims to address this gap in the literature. First, a simple logistic regression model is used to identify the determinants of depression at the national level. Secondly, the spatial distribution of individuals with depression is estimated at the small area, ED level using a spatial microsimulation model. Finally, a spatial interaction model is used to analyse access to acute inpatient facilities at the national level and community-based facil...

The physical, economic and policy drivers of land conversion to forestry in Ireland

Land use change is fundamentally a product of the interaction of physical land characteristics, economic considerations and agricultural and environmental policies. Researchers are increasingly combining physical and socio-economic spatial data to investigate the drivers of land-use change in relation to policy and economic developments. Focusing on Ireland, this study develops a panel data set of annual afforestation over 2811 small-area boundaries between 1993 and 2007 from vector and raster data sources. Soil type and other physical characteristics are combined with the net returns of converting agricultural land to forestry, based on the micro-simulation of individual farm incomes, to investigate land conversion. A spatial econometric approach is adopted to model the data and a range of physical, economic and policy factors are identified as having a significant effect on afforestation rates. In addition to the financial returns, the availability and quality of land and the implementation of environmental protection policies are identified as important factors in land conversion. The implications of these factors for the goal of forest expansion are discussed in relation to conflicting current and future land use policies.

A combinatorial optimization approach to nonmarket environmental benefit aggregation via simulated populations

This paper considers the use of a “combinatorial optimization” technique in the aggregation of environmental benefit values. Combinatorial optimization is used to statistically match population census data to a contingent valuation survey. The matched survey and census information is then used to produce regional and national total willingness-to-pay figures. These figures are then compared to figures derived using more standard approaches to calculating aggregate environment benefit values. The choice of aggregation approach is shown to have a major impact upon estimates of total benefits at a regional level, especially when the target population displays considerable heterogeneity across space. (JEL C14, Q51)

Simulating Brazils tax-benefit system using Brahms, the Brazilian household microsimulation model

Apesar de arrecadar um montante de tributos equivalente a cerca de 37% do PIB e gastar mais da metade desta receita em programas sociais, o governo brasileiro nao tem sido capaz de aliviar significativamente o problema da desigualdade e da pobreza. Alguns estudos tem mostrado evidencia de que esta situacao e, em grande parte, devida a inadequada focalizacao dos gastos publicos. Entretanto, o impacto distributivo do financiamento desses gastos tem recebido menos atencao. O presente trabalho investiga o impacto conjunto dos tributos e transferencias monetarias governamentais sobre a distribuicao de renda entre os domicilios brasileiros e compara o Brasil com alguns outros paises com carga tributaria semelhante.

Estimating catchment area population indicators using network analysis: an application to two small-scale forests in County Galway

Abstract This paper proposes an approach to estimating catchment area population indicators (CAPIs) using geographic information system (GIS)-based network analysis. Specifically, it considers how ‘GeoDirectory’, a geodatabase containing the spatial coordinates of every building in the Republic of Ireland, can be used in conjunction with estimated service areas to calculate the number of residential buildings within a catchment area. The count of residences within the catchment then acts as an indicator or proxy for its population and can be useful when the catchment area does not match closely any combination of geographical or administrative areas for which data exists. Two small-scale recreation forest sites in County Galway are considered by way of illustration: Barna Wood and Renville Forest Park. CAPIs are estimated for the two sites using distance-based service areas as well as isochrone surfaces, and comparisons are made to estimates based on measures of Euclidean distance. The analysis suggests t...

The Local Impact of the Marine Sector in Ireland: A Spatial Microsimulation Analysis

Abstract The ocean is an important natural resource and offers considerable income and employment opportunity to the Irish economy. The last two decades have seen a realisation that whilst nationally economies may benefit from trade liberalisation, specific regions may not. This has led to the development of local level modelling frameworks. Using a spatial microsimulation model this paper estimates the employment and income contribution of the marine sector at the county, small area and household level. It was found that the marine sector offers higher than average income to employees in coastal locations and thus is an important source of income and employment Ireland.

The Single Farm Payment: A Basic Income for Farmers?

Abstract In 2004, the EU Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) was reformed so that payments to farmers were unrelated to agricultural production; the Single Farm Payment (SFP). The objective was to reduce the market distorting incentives of the CAP. Utilising the farm data we compared it to Basic Income (BI). While there are some similarities, the SFP is functionally quite different from a BI. They are both income transfers independent of production. However, the SFP is not a flat rate payment, but is based on historical production. Like a BI, its unconditionality facilitates a change to a more market-rational production system, but these effects are relatively low. Equity objectives are also quite dissimilar relative to a pure BI instrument. There is some environmental-related conditionality, so it is more akin to Atkinson’s participation income. Nevertheless, the SFP can be regarded as equivalent to a relatively strong transition or stepping stone to a BI.