Stephen Hynes

Building a static farm level spatial microsimulation model for rural development and agricultural policy analysis in Ireland

Using statistical matching techniques, economists can now create attribute rich datasets by matching across the common variables in two or more datasets. The farm level spatial microsimulation model developed in this paper uses one of many combinational optimisation techniques – simulated annealing – to match the Irish Census of Agriculture to the 2005 Irish National Farm Survey (NFS). Using the new spatially disaggregated farm population microdata this paper then briefly analyses the impact of future Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) reform on the distribution of family farm income in rural Ireland.

Alternative treatments of the cost of time in recreational demand models: an application to whitewater kayaking in Ireland

The measurement of travel costs in recreational demand modeling has been a contentious issue for many decades. This article explores the use of a number of alternative methods of incorporating time costs in the travel cost modeling process. Travel cost values where the opportunity cost of time is excluded, where it is included as a percentage of the individuals reported wage rate and where it based on an estimated wage from a secondary data source (the European Community Household Panel) are compared and then used in a conditional logit model to estimate the demand for whitewater kayaking in Ireland. We then evaluate the effect of different treatments of the cost of travel time on the welfare impacts of a number of different management scenarios for kayaking rivers in Ireland, and find that statistically significant differences emerge.

Defining and quantifying China's ocean economy

Abstract In recent years, the Chinese government has been increasingly supportive of the development of the ocean economy, implementing several national ocean-related strategies. For the first time, Chinas 12th five-year Plan for National and Social Development (2011—2015) includes “developing the ocean economy” as a key national development strategy for the country. Because of this, the demand for ocean economic statistics and indicators is growing rapidly. The aim of this paper is to define and quantify the value of the major ocean industries in China and to examine the growth in the major Chinese ocean industries in the period 2001 to 2010. The paper also outlines a methodology that provides a robust quantification of the marine sector over time. It finds that in 2010 the major ocean industries in China contributed

Assessing the sustainability of Irish agriculture

239.09 billion to the national economy and employed over 9 million individuals.

Site choices in recreational demand: a matter of utility maximization or regret minimization?

Indicators encompassing the multidimensional nature of sustainability (economic, environmental and social) are developed here using Irish National Farm Survey data over an 11-year period (1996–2006). This is the first such study undertaken for Ireland, and the results show significant change over the decade in all three areas examined. The general concept of sustainability is discussed and the development of agricultural sustainability indicators in an Irish context is described. Individual indicators are dealt with in turn, and the RERC SMILE model is used to demonstrate how these indicators can be derived at a spatial level below the national scale. Economic viability was found to be generally in decline over the 10-year period examined. However, when individual farming systems were taken into account, some were found to perform better than others. From an environmental perspective, the more intensive farming systems (primarily dairy) were found to pollute more on average, while in more general terms the levels of methane emissions produced per hectare have been falling over the reference period. Results also indicate that rural Ireland is experiencing a period of fundamental change in terms of the demographic viability of its farming community.

Economic Valuation of Marine and Coastal Ecosystems: Is it currently fit for purpose?

This paper compares the Random Regret Minimization and the Random Utility Maximization models for determining recreational choice. The Random Regret approach is based on the idea that, when choosing, individuals aim to minimize their regret – regret being defined as what one experiences when a non-chosen alternative in a choice set performs better than a chosen one in relation to one or more attributes. The Random Regret paradigm, recently developed in transport economics, presents a tractable, regret-based alternative to the dominant choice paradigm based on Random Utility. Using data from a travel cost study exploring factors that influence kayakers’ site-choice decisions in the Republic of Ireland, we estimate both the traditional Random Utility multinomial logit model (RU-MNL) and the Random Regret multinomial logit model (RR-MNL) to gain more insights into site choice decisions. We further explore whether choices are driven by a utility maximization or a regret minimization paradigm by running a binary logit model to examine the likelihood of the two decision choice paradigms using site visits and respondents characteristics as explanatory variables. In addition to being one of the first studies to apply the RR-MNL to an environmental good, this paper also represents the first application of the RR-MNL to compute the Logsum to test and strengthen conclusions on welfare impacts of potential alternative policy scenarios.

A Panel Travel Cost Model Accounting for Endogenous Stratification and Truncation: A Latent Class Approach

In Europe, as in many other parts of the world, an increasing number of coastal and marine policies require or encourage the use of environmental valuation and cost-benefit analysis. This means that policy-makers and regulators are placing increasing demands on economists to supply such values for use in policy analysis and management. There has also been a growing emphasis on basing environmental management and policy analysis on the ecosystem services approach (Fisher et al, 2008; UK NEA, 2011; Keeler et al, 2012). The consequence of this is a parallel requirement to link ecosystem function and service flows to environmental valuation. The purpose of this paper is to examine whether ec onomists are in a position to deliversuch evidence for use in policy analysis, in terms of the conceptual basis of valuation, the availability of the scientific evidence that is required to implement valuation methods, and the existing data base of economic values. The focus of the paper is on the European policy arena, but most of the issues discussed apply equally to other locations. We approach the question in three ways. First, by reviewing existing European legislative drivers for increased use of valuation in coastal and marine policy; second, by reviewing the existing body of evidence on ecosystem and biodiversity values related to the coastal and marine environment in the EU and third, by considering whether both the economic valuation framework itself, and the scientific evidence required for its implementation, is “fit for purpose” and capable of meeting the needs of regulators.

Examining the factors associated with depression at the small area level in Ireland using spatial microsimulation techniques

In this paper, we develop a panel data negative binomial count model that corrects for endogenous stratification and truncation. We also incorporate a latent class structure into our panel specification, which assumes that the observations are drawn from a finite number of segments, where the distributions differ in the intercept and the coefficients of the explanatory variables. The paper argues that count data panel models corrected for on-site sampling may still be inadequate and potentially misleading if the population of interest is heterogeneous with respect to the impact of the chosen explanatory variables. (JEL Q51, Q57)

Spatial microsimulation for rural policy analysis

Abstract The World Health Organisation (WHO) predicts that, world-wide, depression will be the second largest source of burden of disease by 2020. It is currently estimated that approximately 300,000 Irish people experience depression. To date no research has been carried out on the small area incidence of depression in Ireland. Although research has looked at access levels to acute psychiatric hospitals for each electoral division (ED) in Ireland, there is currently no research on the accessibility of mental health services to individuals with depression. This paper aims to address this gap in the literature. First, a simple logistic regression model is used to identify the determinants of depression at the national level. Secondly, the spatial distribution of individuals with depression is estimated at the small area, ED level using a spatial microsimulation model. Finally, a spatial interaction model is used to analyse access to acute inpatient facilities at the national level and community-based facil...

Estimating the welfare impacts of agricultural landscape change in Ireland: a choice experiment approach

The aim of this book is to explore the challenges facing rural communities and economies and to demonstrate the potential of spatial microsimulation for policy and analysis in a rural context. This is done by providing a comprehensive overview of a particular spatial microsimulation model called SMILE (Simulation Model of the Irish Local Economy). The model has been developed over a ten year period for applied policy analyis in Ireland which is seen as an ideal study area given its large percentage of population living in rural areas. The book reviews the policy context and the state of the art in spatial microsimulation against which SMILE was developed, describes in detail its model design and calibration, and presents example of outputs showing what new information the model provides using a spatial matching process. The second part of the book explores a series of rural issues or problems, including the impacts of new or changing government or EU policies, and examines the contribution that spatial microsimulation can provide in each area.