Cathy A. Cowan

Health Spending Projections Through 2017: The Baby-Boom Generation Is Coming To Medicare

The outlook for national health spending calls for continued steady growth. Spending growth is projected to be 6.7 percent in 2007, similar to its rate in 2006. Average annual growth over the projection period is expected to be 6.7 percent. Slower growth in private spending toward the end of the period is expected to be offset by stronger growth in public spending. The health share of gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to increase to 16.3 percent in 2007 and then rise throughout the projection period, reaching 19.5 percent of GDP by 2017.

National Health Spending In 2006: A Year Of Change For Prescription Drugs

In 2006, U.S. health care spending increased 6.7 percent to

Reconciling Medical Expenditure Estimates from the MEPS and NHEA, 2007

2.1 trillion, or

National Health Spending In 2004: Recent Slowdown Led By Prescription Drug Spending

7,026 per person. The health care portion of gross domestic product (GDP) was 16.0 percent, slightly higher than in 2005. Prescription drug spending growth accelerated in 2006 to 8.5 percent, partly as a result of Medicare Part Ds impact. Most of the other major health care services and public payers experienced slower growth in 2006 than in prior years. The implementation of Medicare Part D caused a major shift in the distribution of payers for prescription drugs, as Medicare played a larger role in drug purchases than it had before.

Health Spending Rebound Continues In 2002

OBJECTIVE Provide a comparison of health care expenditure estimates for 2007 from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS) and the National Health Expenditure Accounts (NHEA). Reconciling these estimates serves two important purposes. First, it is an important quality assurance exercise for improving and ensuring the integrity of each sources estimates. Second, the reconciliation provides a consistent baseline of health expenditure data for policy simulations. Our results assist researchers to adjust MEPS to be consistent with the NHEA so that the projected costs as well as budgetary and tax implications of any policy change are consistent with national health spending estimates. DATA SOURCES The Medical Expenditure Panel Survey produced by the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, and the National Health Center for Health Statistics and the National Health Expenditures produced by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services Office of the Actuary. RESULTS In this study, we focus on the personal health care (PHC) sector, which includes the goods and services rendered to treat or prevent a specific disease or condition in an individual. The official 2007 NHEA estimate for PHC spending is

Health Spending Projections Through 2016: Modest Changes Obscure Part D’s Impact

1,915 billion and the MEPS estimate is

National Health Spending In 2005: The Slowdown Continues

1,126 billion. Adjusting the NHEA estimates for differences in underlying populations, covered services, and other measurement concepts reduces the NHEA estimate for 2007 to

Health Spending Growth Up In 1999; Faster Growth Expected In The Future

1,366 billion. As a result, MEPS is

Trends In U.S. Health Care Spending, 2001

240 billion, or 17.6 percent, less than the adjusted NHEA total.