Cathy M. Trudinger

Variations in modeled atmospheric transport of carbon dioxide and the consequences for CO2 inversions

Carbon dioxide concentrations due to fossil fuel burning and CO 2 exchange with the terrestrial biosphere have been modeled with 12 different three-dimensional atmospheric transport models. The models include both on-line and off-line types and use a variety of advection algorithms and subgrid scale parameterizations. A range of model resolutions is also represented. The modeled distributions show a large range of responses. For the experiment using the fossil fuel source, the annual mean meridional gradient at the surface vases by a factor of 2. This suggests a factor of 2 variation in the efficiency of surface interhemispheric exchange as much due to differences in model vertical transport as to horizontal differences. In the upper troposphere, zonal mean gradients within the northern hemisphere vary in sign. In the terrestrial biotic source experiment, the spatial distribution of the amplitude and the phase of the seasonal cycle of surface CO 2 concentration vary little between models. However, the magnitude of the amplitudes varies similarly to the fossil case. Differences between modeled and observed seasonal cycles in the northern extratropics suggest that the terrestrial biotic source is overestimated in late spring and underestimated in winter. The annual mean response to the seasonal source also shows large differences in magnitude. The uncertainty in hemispheric carbon budgets implied by the differences in interhemispheric exchange times is comparable to those quoted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for fossil fuel and ocean uptake and smaller than those for terrestrial fluxes. We outline approaches which may reduce this component in CO 2 budget uncertainties.

Modeling air movement and bubble trapping in firn

A finite difference model for gas diffusion and bubble trapping in firn is described. The model uses prescribed profiles of density, open and closed porosity, and diffusivity to determine the diffusion and trapping processes. The model is calibrated and tested by using measured air composition in the firn at the DE08-2 site on Law Dome, Antarctica. In particular, we focus on carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6), which have well-determined atmospheric records (CO2 since 1958, CH4 since 1983, and SF6 since 1978). These trace gases are used to tune the diffusivity-porosity relationship, which is the most uncertain of the model inputs. Modeled trace gas profiles in the DE08-2 firn are improved if allowance is made for reduced diffusion through the most prominent DE08-2 melt layer from the summer of 1989/1990. The relatively rapid growth rate of SF6 in the atmosphere permits good definition of the diffusion reduction due to the melt layer (about 80%). The model quantifies the smoothing effect of the firn diffusion and bubble trapping on atmospheric signals. Gravitational separation in the firn is investigated by comparison of modeled δ15N2 with observations. The model is used to calculate the isotopic diffusion correction for δ13C02 and δ13CH4. This corrects for the fractionating effects of the firn diffusion process on the different isotopes. The diffusion and gravitational corrections are critical at the measurement precision currently being obtained; for δ13CO2 the diffusion correction is up to about 10 times the current measurement precision. The diffusion correction is even more significant for δ13CH4; at over 1‰ at the bottom of the firn it is more than double the change over the last decade. The fully corrected δ13C02 record from the DE08-2 firn is compared with the history of Cape Grim direct atmospheric measurements with excellent agreement.

OptIC project: An intercomparison of optimization techniques for parameter estimation in terrestrial biogeochemical models

We describe results of a project known as OptIC (Optimisation InterComparison) for comparison of parameter estimation methods in terrestrial biogeochemical models. A highly simplified test model was used to generate pseudo-data to which noise with different characteristics was added. Participants in the OptIC project were asked to estimate the model parameters used to generate this data, and to predict model variables into the future. Ten participants contributed results using one of the following methods: Levenberg-Marquardt, adjoint, Kalman filter, Markov chain Monte Carlo and genetic algorithm. Methods differed in how they locate the minimum (gradient-descent or global search), how observations are processed (all at once sequentially), or the number of iterations used, or assumptions about the statistics (some methods assume Gaussian probability density functions; others do not). We found the different methods equally successful at estimating the parameters in our application. The biggest variation in parameter estimates arose from the choice of cost function, not the choice of optimization method. Relatively poor results were obtained when the model-data mismatch in the cost function included weights that were instantaneously dependent on noisy observations. This was the case even when the magnitude of residuals varied with the magnitude of observations. Missing data caused estimates to be more scattered, and the uncertainty of predictions increased correspondingly. All methods gave biased results when the noise was temporally correlated or non-Gaussian, or when incorrect model forcing was used. Our results highlight the need for care in choosing the error model in any optimization.

The relationship between peak warming and cumulative CO2 emissions, and its use to quantify vulnerabilities in the carbon–climate–human system

Interactions between the carbon cycle, climate and human societies are subject to several major vulnerabilities, broadly defined as factors contributing to the risk of harm from human-induced climate change. We assess five vulnerabilities: (1) effects of increasing CO2 on the partition of anthropogenic carbon between atmospheric, land and ocean reservoirs; (2) effects of climate change (quantified by temperature) on CO2 fluxes; (3) uncertainty in climate sensitivity; (4) non-CO2 radiative forcing and (5) anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Our analysis uses a physically based expression for Tp(Qp), the peak warming Tp associated with a cumulative anthropogenic CO2 emission Qp to the time of peak warming. The approximations in this expression are evaluated using a non-linear box model of the carbon-climate system, forced with capped emissions trajectories described by an analytic form satisfying integral and smoothness constraints. The first four vulnerabilities appear as parameters that influence Tp(Qp), whereas the last appears through the independent variable. In terms of likely implications for Tp(Qp), the decreasing order of the first four vulnerabilities is: uncertainties in climate sensitivity, effects of non-CO2 radiative forcing, effects of climate change on CO2 fluxes and effects of increasing CO2 on the partition of anthropogenic carbon.

In search of in-situ radiocarbon in Law Dome ice and firn

Abstract Results of AMS radiocarbon measurements on CO and CO2 separated from firn air directly pumped from the ice sheet, and on CO2 separated from air extracted from ice cores by a dry grating technique, are presented. The firn air samples and ice cores used in this study were collected from the region of Law Dome, Antarctica. No evidence of in-situ 14CO2 was found in the firn air samples or the ice core air samples from one site although a slight enhancement of 14CO above expected polar atmospheric concentrations was observed for some firn air samples. A clear in-situ 14CO2 signal for ice pre-dating the radiocarbon bomb pulse was found, however, in air samples extracted from an ice core from a second site. We compare these results and propose an hypothesis to explain this apparent contradiction. The degree to which in-situ 14C is released from the ice crystals during trapping and bubble formation is considered and discussed. The selectivity of the dry grating technique for the extraction of trapped atmospheric gases from ice cores is also discussed and compared with other methods.

Measurements of the 14CO2 bomb pulse in firn and ice at Law Dome, Antarctica

Abstract 14CO2 produced in the atmosphere by nuclear weapons testing in the 1960s is now incorporated in the air bubbles of Antarctic ice. The high atmospheric radiocarbon growth rates through the period of tests and subsequent decline provide a unique and independent test for the smoothing of atmospheric CO2 signals due to firn diffusion and bubble close off. The level of smoothing quantifies the time resolution with which atmospheric trace gas histories can be reconstructed from ice cores. In this paper, the methodologies for the preparation and AMS measurements of ice core and firn 14CO2 from high accumulation sites at Law Dome are detailed. The results are compared with predictions of a numerical model incorporating firn air diffusion and bubble close-off. The sample sizes, precision of measurements and sources of contamination are discussed for both firn and ice samples.

Dryland vegetation response to wet episode, not inherent shift in sensitivity to rainfall, behind Australia's role in 2011 global carbon sink anomaly

There is compelling new evidence that semi-arid ecosystems are playing a pivotal role in the inter-annual variability and greening trend of the global carbon cycle (Ahlstrom et al., 2015). The situation is exemplified by the vast inland region of Australia, the driest inhabited continent. Using a global model, Poulter et al. (2014) inferred that Australian ecosystems contributed 57% of a record global carbon uptake anomaly in 2011, and have entered a regime of enhanced sensitivity to rainfall since the mid-1990s. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Differences between trends in atmospheric CO 2 and the reported trends in anthropogenic CO 2 emissions

Averaged annual accumulation of CO2 in the atmosphere, dCa/dt, has been slowing from peak growth in 2002/2003 associated with anomalous climate-induced emissions at high northern latitudes. This slowing is widespread but determined with greatest certainty in the largest well-mixed portion of the global troposphere (30◦S–90◦S). We rely on atmospheric mixing for global integration and selection of atmospheric data for spatial representativeness. Prior to 2002/2003, after empirical adjustment for perturbations associated with ENSO and volcanic activity (EV), dCa/dt increases are well represented by linear regression, using direct monitoring records from 1990 or 1965, also from preindustrial times using archived air. In contrast,modelled atmospheric trends due to reported emissions dCE/dt (assuming historically consistent oceanic and terrestrial uptake mechanisms), agree with dCa/dt or dCa/dt-EV up until 1990, are near-stable through the 1990s and increase by 29% between 2000 and 2008. Using atmospheric constraints based on trends in both dCa/dt-EV and interhemispheric gradient, the differences between trends in dCE/dt and atmospheric CO2 growth are most simply explained as an artefact of underestimating 1994–2003 emissions by around 6%. This is achieved with a near constant post-1965 airborne fraction; otherwise unusually complicated sink changes are required for the period.

Atmospheric histories and global emissions of halons H‐1211 (CBrClF2), H‐1301 (CBrF3), and H‐2402 (CBrF2CBrF2)

We report ground-based atmospheric measurements and emission estimates for the halons H-1211 (CBrClF₂), H-1301 (CBrF₃), and H-2402 (CBrF₂CBrF₂) from the AGAGE (Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration global networks. We also include results from archived air samples in canisters and from polar firn in both hemispheres, thereby deriving an atmospheric record of nearly nine decades (1930s to present). All three halons were absent from the atmosphere until ~1970, when their atmospheric burdens started to increase rapidly. In recent years H-1211 and H-2402 mole fractions have been declining, but H-1301 has continued to grow. High-frequency observations show continuing emissions of H-1211 and H-1301 near most AGAGE sites. For H-2402 the only emissions detected were derived from the region surrounding the Sea of Japan/East Sea. Based on our observations, we derive global emissions using two different inversion approaches. Emissions for H-1211 declined from a peak of 11 kt yr⁻¹ (late 1990s) to 3.9 kt yr⁻¹ at the end of our record (mean of 2013–2015), for H-1301 from 5.4 kt yr⁻¹ (late 1980s) to 1.6 kt yr⁻¹, and for H-2402 from 1.8 kt yr⁻¹ (late 1980s) to 0.38 kt yr⁻¹. Yearly summed halon emissions have decreased substantially; nevertheless, since 2000 they have accounted for ~30% of the emissions of all major anthropogenic ozone depletion substances, when weighted by ozone depletion potentials.

Process contributions of Australian ecosystems to interannual variations in the carbon cycle

New evidence is emerging that semi-arid ecosystems dominate interannual variability (IAV) of the global carbon cycle, largely via fluctuating water availability associated with El Nino/Southern Oscillation. Recent evidence from global terrestrial biosphere modelling and satellite-based inversion of atmospheric CO2 point to a large role of Australian ecosystems in global carbon cycle variability, including a large contribution from Australia to the record land sink of 2011. However the specific mechanisms governing this variability, and their bioclimatic distribution within Australia, have not been identified. Here we provide a regional assessment, based on best available observational data, of IAV in the Australian terrestrial carbon cycle and the role of Australia in the record land sink anomaly of 2011. We find that IAV in Australian net carbon uptake is dominated by semi-arid ecosystems in the east of the continent, whereas the 2011 anomaly was more uniformly spread across most of the continent. Further, and in contrast to global modelling results suggesting that IAV in Australian net carbon uptake is amplified by lags between production and decomposition, we find that, at continental scale, annual variations in production are dampened by annual variations in decomposition, with both fluxes responding positively to precipitation anomalies.