Cecile Hannay

The Community Earth System Model (CESM) large ensemble project: A community resource for studying climate change in the presence of internal climate variability

AbstractWhile internal climate variability is known to affect climate projections, its influence is often underappreciated and confused with model error. Why? In general, modeling centers contribute a small number of realizations to international climate model assessments [e.g., phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5)]. As a result, model error and internal climate variability are difficult, and at times impossible, to disentangle. In response, the Community Earth System Model (CESM) community designed the CESM Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) with the explicit goal of enabling assessment of climate change in the presence of internal climate variability. All CESM-LE simulations use a single CMIP5 model (CESM with the Community Atmosphere Model, version 5). The core simulations replay the twenty to twenty-first century (1920–2100) 30 times under historical and representative concentration pathway 8.5 external forcing with small initial condition differences. Two companion 1000+-yr-long preindu...

Vertical structure and physical processes of the Madden-Julian Oscillation: Exploring key model physics in climate simulations

Aimed at reducing deficiencies in representing the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) in general circulation models (GCMs), a global model evaluation project on vertical structure and physical processes of the MJO was coordinated. In this paper, results from the climate simulation component of this project are reported. It is shown that the MJO remains a great challenge in these latest generation GCMs. The systematic eastward propagation of the MJO is only well simulated in about one fourth of the total participating models. The observed vertical westward tilt with altitude of the MJO is well simulated in good MJO models but not in the poor ones. Damped Kelvin wave responses to the east of convection in the lower troposphere could be responsible for the missing MJO preconditioning process in these poor MJO models. Several process-oriented diagnostics were conducted to discriminate key processes for realistic MJO simulations. While large-scale rainfall partition and low-level mean zonal winds over the Indo-Pacific in a model are not found to be closely associated with its MJO skill, two metrics, including the low-level relative humidity difference between high- and low-rain events and seasonal mean gross moist stability, exhibit statistically significant correlations with the MJO performance. It is further indicated that increased cloud-radiative feedback tends to be associated with reduced amplitude of intraseasonal variability, which is incompatible with the radiative instability theory previously proposed for the MJO. Results in this study confirm that inclusion of air-sea interaction can lead to significant improvement in simulating the MJO.

Exploratory High-Resolution Climate Simulations using the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM)

AbstractExtended, high-resolution (0.23° latitude × 0.31° longitude) simulations with Community Atmosphere Model versions 4 and 5 (CAM4 and CAM5) are examined and compared with results from climate simulations conducted at a more typical resolution of 0.9° latitude × 1.25° longitude. Overall, the simulated climate of the high-resolution experiments is not dramatically better than that of their low-resolution counterparts. Improvements appear primarily where topographic effects may be playing a role, including a substantially improved summertime Indian monsoon simulation in CAM4 at high resolution. Significant sensitivity to resolution is found in simulated precipitation over the southeast United States during winter. Some aspects of the simulated seasonal mean precipitation deteriorate notably at high resolution. Prominent among these is an exacerbated Pacific “double ITCZ” bias in both models. Nevertheless, while large-scale seasonal means are not dramatically better at high resolution, realistic tropica...

Global Climate Impacts of Fixing the Southern Ocean Shortwave Radiation Bias in the Community Earth System Model (CESM)

AbstractA large, long-standing, and pervasive climate model bias is excessive absorbed shortwave radiation (ASR) over the midlatitude oceans, especially the Southern Ocean. This study investigates both the underlying mechanisms for and climate impacts of this bias within the Community Earth System Model, version 1, with the Community Atmosphere Model, version 5 [CESM1(CAM5)]. Excessive Southern Ocean ASR in CESM1(CAM5) results in part because low-level clouds contain insufficient amounts of supercooled liquid. In a present-day atmosphere-only run, an observationally motivated modification to the shallow convection detrainment increases supercooled cloud liquid, brightens low-level clouds, and substantially reduces the Southern Ocean ASR bias. Tuning to maintain global energy balance enables reduction of a compensating tropical ASR bias. In the resulting preindustrial fully coupled run with a brighter Southern Ocean and dimmer tropics, the Southern Ocean cools and the tropics warm. As a result of the enhan...

Tropical and subtropical cloud transitions in weather and climate prediction models: the GCSS/WGNE Pacific cross-section intercomparison (GPCI)

AbstractA model evaluation approach is proposed in which weather and climate prediction models are analyzed along a Pacific Ocean cross section, from the stratocumulus regions off the coast of California, across the shallow convection dominated trade winds, to the deep convection regions of the ITCZ—the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment Cloud System Study/Working Group on Numerical Experimentation (GCSS/WGNE) Pacific Cross-Section Intercomparison (GPCI). The main goal of GPCI is to evaluate and help understand and improve the representation of tropical and subtropical cloud processes in weather and climate prediction models. In this paper, a detailed analysis of cloud regime transitions along the cross section from the subtropics to the tropics for the season June–July–August of 1998 is presented. This GPCI study confirms many of the typical weather and climate prediction model problems in the representation of clouds: underestimation of clouds in the stratocumulus regime by most models with the co...

CGILS: Results from the First Phase of an International Project to Understand the Physical Mechanisms of Low Cloud Feedbacks in Single Column Models

CGILS—the CFMIP-GASS Intercomparison of Large Eddy Models (LESs) and single column models (SCMs)—investigates the mechanisms of cloud feedback in SCMs and LESs under idealized climate change perturbation. This paper describes the CGILS results from 15 SCMs and 8 LES models. Three cloud regimes over the subtropical oceans are studied: shallow cumulus, cumulus under stratocumulus, and well-mixed coastal stratus/stratocumulus. In the stratocumulus and coastal stratus regimes, SCMs without activated shallow convection generally simulated negative cloud feedbacks, while models with active shallow convection generally simulated positive cloud feedbacks. In the shallow cumulus alone regime, this relationship is less clear, likely due to the changes in cloud depth, lateral mixing, and precipitation or a combination of them. The majority of LES models simulated negative cloud feedback in the well-mixed coastal stratus/stratocumulus regime, and positive feedback in the shallow cumulus and stratocumulus regime. A general framework is provided to interpret SCM results: in a warmer climate, the moistening rate of the cloudy layer associated with the surface-based turbulence parameterization is enhanced; together with weaker large-scale subsidence, it causes negative cloud feedback. In contrast, in the warmer climate, the drying rate associated with the shallow convection scheme is enhanced. This causes positive cloud feedback. These mechanisms are summarized as the “NESTS” negative cloud feedback and the “SCOPE” positive cloud feedback (Negative feedback from Surface Turbulence under weaker Subsidence—Shallow Convection PositivE feedback) with the net cloud feedback depending on how the two opposing effects counteract each other. The LES results are consistent with these interpretations.

Evaluation of forecasted southeast Pacific stratocumulus in the NCAR, GFDL, and ECMWF models.

Abstract Forecasts of southeast Pacific stratocumulus at 20°S and 85°W during the East Pacific Investigation of Climate (EPIC) cruise of October 2001 are examined with the ECMWF model, the Atmospheric Model (AM) from GFDL, the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) from NCAR, and the CAM with a revised atmospheric boundary layer formulation from the University of Washington (CAM-UW). The forecasts are initialized from ECMWF analyses and each model is run for 3–5 days to determine the differences with the EPIC field observations. Observations during the EPIC cruise show a well-mixed boundary layer under a sharp inversion. The inversion height and the cloud layer have a strong and regular diurnal cycle. A key problem common to the models is that the planetary boundary layer (PBL) depth is too shallow when compared to EPIC observations. However, it is suggested that improved PBL depths are achieved with more physically realistic PBL schemes: at one end, CAM uses a dry and surface-driven PBL scheme and produces a v...

Improved simulation of extreme precipitation in a high-resolution atmosphere model

Climate models often underestimate the magnitude of extreme precipitation. We compare the performance of a high-resolution (∼0.25°) time-slice atmospheric simulation (1979–2005) of the Community Earth System Model 1.0 in representing daily extreme precipitation events against those of the same model at lower resolutions (∼1° and 2°). We find significant increases in the simulated levels of daily extreme precipitation over Europe, the United States, and Australia. In many cases the increase in high percentiles (>95th) of daily precipitation leads to better agreement with observational data sets. For lower percentiles, we find that increasing resolution does not significantly increase values of simulated precipitation. We argue that the reduced biases mainly result from the higher resolution models resolving more key physical processes controlling heavy precipitation. We conclude that while high resolution is vital for accurately simulating extreme precipitation, considerable biases remain at the highest available model resolutions.

Clouds, Aerosol, and Precipitation in the Marine Boundary Layer: An ARM Mobile Facility Deployment

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Southeast Pacific Stratocumulus in the Community Atmosphere Model

AbstractForecasts of October 2006 are used to investigate southeast Pacific stratocumulus in the Community Atmosphere Model, versions 4 and 5 (CAM4 and CAM5). Both models quickly develop biases similar to their climatic biases, suggesting that parameterized physics are the root of the climate errors. An extensive cloud deck is produced in CAM4, but the cloud structure is unrealistic because the boundary layer is too shallow and moist. The boundary layer structure is improved in CAM5, but during the daytime the boundary layer decouples from the cloud layer, causing the cloud layer to break up and transition toward a more trade wind cumulus structure in the afternoon. The cloud liquid water budget shows how different parameterizations contribute to maintaining these different expressions of stratocumulus. Sensitivity experiments help elucidate the origins of the errors. The importance of the diurnal cycle of these clouds for climate simulations is emphasized.