Kevin A. Reed

The effect of horizontal resolution on simulation quality in the Community Atmospheric Model, CAM5.1

We present an analysis of version 5.1 of the Community Atmospheric Model (CAM5.1) at a high horizontal resolution. Intercomparison of this global model at approximately 0.25°, 1°, and 2° is presented for extreme daily precipitation as well as for a suite of seasonal mean fields. In general, extreme precipitation amounts are larger in high resolution than in lower-resolution configurations. In many but not all locations and/or seasons, extreme daily precipitation rates in the high-resolution configuration are higher and more realistic. The high-resolution configuration produces tropical cyclones up to category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale and a comparison to observations reveals both realistic and unrealistic model behavior. In the absence of extensive model tuning at high resolution, simulation of many of the mean fields analyzed in this study is degraded compared to the tuned lower-resolution public released version of the model.

Hurricanes and Climate: The U.S. CLIVAR Working Group on Hurricanes

AbstractWhile a quantitative climate theory of tropical cyclone formation remains elusive, considerable progress has been made recently in our ability to simulate tropical cyclone climatologies and to understand the relationship between climate and tropical cyclone formation. Climate models are now able to simulate a realistic rate of global tropical cyclone formation, although simulation of the Atlantic tropical cyclone climatology remains challenging unless horizontal resolutions finer than 50 km are employed. This article summarizes published research from the idealized experiments of the Hurricane Working Group of U.S. Climate and Ocean: Variability, Predictability and Change (CLIVAR). This work, combined with results from other model simulations, has strengthened relationships between tropical cyclone formation rates and climate variables such as midtropospheric vertical velocity, with decreased climatological vertical velocities leading to decreased tropical cyclone formation. Systematic differences...

Thermodynamic control of anvil cloud amount

Significance Assessing the response of clouds to global warming remains a challenge of climate science. Past research has elucidated what controls the height and temperature of high-level anvil clouds, but the factors that control their horizontal extent remained uncertain. We show that the anvil cloud amount is expected to shrink as the climate warms or when convection becomes more clustered, due to a mechanism rooted in basic energetic and thermodynamic properties of the atmosphere. It is supported by three climate models and consistent with results from a cloud-resolving model and observations. We thus believe that this mechanism is robust and that it adds a new piece to understanding how clouds respond to climate warming. General circulation models show that as the surface temperature increases, the convective anvil clouds shrink. By analyzing radiative–convective equilibrium simulations, we show that this behavior is rooted in basic energetic and thermodynamic properties of the atmosphere: As the climate warms, the clouds rise and remain at nearly the same temperature, but find themselves in a more stable atmosphere; this enhanced stability reduces the convective outflow in the upper troposphere and decreases the anvil cloud fraction. By warming the troposphere and increasing the upper-tropospheric stability, the clustering of deep convection also reduces the convective outflow and the anvil cloud fraction. When clouds are radiatively active, this robust coupling between temperature, high clouds, and circulation exerts a positive feedback on convective aggregation and favors the maintenance of strongly aggregated atmospheric states at high temperatures. This stability iris mechanism likely contributes to the narrowing of rainy areas as the climate warms. Whether or not it influences climate sensitivity requires further investigation.

Global Radiative–Convective Equilibrium in the Community Atmosphere Model, Version 5

AbstractIn the continued effort to understand the climate system and improve its representation in atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs), it is crucial to develop reduced-complexity frameworks to evaluate these models. This is especially true as the AGCM community advances toward high horizontal resolutions (i.e., grid spacing less than 50 km), which will require interpreting and improving the performance of many model components. A simplified global radiative–convective equilibrium (RCE) configuration is proposed to explore the implication of horizontal resolution on equilibrium climate. RCE is the statistical equilibrium in which the radiative cooling of the atmosphere is balanced by heating due to convection.In this work, the Community Atmosphere Model, version 5 (CAM5), is configured in RCE to better understand tropical climate and extremes. The RCE setup consists of an ocean-covered Earth with diurnally varying, spatially uniform insolation and no rotation effects. CAM5 is run at two horizon...

Resolution Dependence of Future Tropical Cyclone Projections of CAM5.1 in the U.S. CLIVAR Hurricane Working Group Idealized Configurations

AbstractThe four idealized configurations of the U.S. CLIVAR Hurricane Working Group are integrated using the global Community Atmospheric Model version 5.1 at two different horizontal resolutions, approximately 100 and 25 km. The publicly released 0.9° × 1.3° configuration is a poor predictor of the sign of the 0.23° × 0.31° model configuration’s change in the total number of tropical storms in a warmer climate. However, it does predict the sign of the higher-resolution configuration’s change in the number of intense tropical cyclones in a warmer climate. In the 0.23° × 0.31° model configuration, both increased CO2 concentrations and elevated sea surface temperature (SST) independently lower the number of weak tropical storms and shorten their average duration. Conversely, increased SST causes more intense tropical cyclones and lengthens their average duration, resulting in a greater number of intense tropical cyclone days globally. Increased SST also increased maximum tropical storm instantaneous precip...

Characteristics of tropical cyclones in high-resolution models in the present climate

The global characteristics of tropical cyclones (TCs) simulated by several climate models are analyzed and compared with observations. The global climate models were forced by the same sea surface temperature (SST) fields in two types of experiments, using climatological SST and interannually varying SST. TC tracks and intensities are derived from each models output fields by the group who ran that model, using their own preferred tracking scheme; the study considers the combination of model and tracking scheme as a single modeling system, and compares the properties derived from the different systems. Overall, the observed geographic distribution of global TC frequency was reasonably well reproduced. As expected, with the exception of one model, intensities of the simulated TC were lower than in observations, to a degree that varies considerably across models.

Sensitivity of Tropical Cyclone Rainfall to Idealized Global-Scale Forcings*

AbstractHeavy rainfall and flooding associated with tropical cyclones (TCs) are responsible for a large number of fatalities and economic damage worldwide. Despite their large socioeconomic impacts, research into heavy rainfall and flooding associated with TCs has received limited attention to date and still represents a major challenge. The capability to adapt to future changes in heavy rainfall and flooding associated with TCs is inextricably linked to and informed by understanding of the sensitivity of TC rainfall to likely future forcing mechanisms. Here a set of idealized high-resolution atmospheric model experiments produced as part of the U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) Hurricane Working Group activity is used to examine TC response to idealized global-scale perturbations: the doubling of CO2, uniform 2-K increases in global sea surface temperature (SST), and their combined impact. As a preliminary but key step, daily rainfall patterns of composite TCs within climate model outp...

Impact of physical parameterizations on idealized tropical cyclones in the Community Atmosphere Model

[1] This paper explores the impact of the physical parameterization suite on the evolution of an idealized tropical cyclone within the National Center for Atmospheric Research’s (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). The CAM versions 3.1 and 4 are used to study the development of an initially weak vortex in an idealized environment over a 10‐ day simulation period within an aqua ‐planet setup. The main distinction between CAM 3.1 and CAM 4 lies within the physical parameterization of deep convection. CAM 4 now includes a dilute plume Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) calculation and Convective Momentum Transport (CMT). The finite–volume dynamical core with 26 vertical levels in aqua‐planet mode is used at horizontal grid spacings of 1.0°, 0.5° and 0.25°. It is revealed that CAM 4 produces stronger and larger tropical cyclones by day 10 at all resolutions, with a much earlier onset of intensification when compared to CAM 3.1. At the highest resolution CAM 4 also accounts for changes in the storm’s vertical structure, such as an increased outward slope of the wind contours with height, when compared to CAM 3.1. An investigation concludes that the new dilute CAPE calculation in CAM 4 is largely responsible for the changes observed in the development, strength and structure ofthetropicalcyclone.Citation: Reed,K.A.,andC.Jablonowski (2011), Impact of physical parameterizations on idealized tropical cyclonesintheCommunityAtmosphereModel,Geophys.Res.Lett.,

An Analytic Vortex Initialization Technique for Idealized Tropical Cyclone Studies in AGCMs

Abstract The paper discusses the design of idealized tropical cyclone experiments in atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs). The evolution of an initially weak, warm-core vortex is investigated over a 10-day period with varying initial conditions that include variations of the maximum wind speed and radius of maximum wind. The initialization of the vortex is built upon prescribed 3D moisture, pressure, temperature, and velocity fields that are embedded into tropical environmental conditions. The initial fields are in exact hydrostatic and gradient-wind balance in an axisymmetric form. The formulation is then generalized to provide analytic initial conditions for an approximately balanced vortex in AGCMs with height-based vertical coordinates. An extension for global models with pressure-based vertical coordinates is presented. The analytic initialization technique can easily be implemented on any AGCM computational grid. The characteristics of the idealized tropical cyclone experiments are illustr...

Impact of the dynamical core on the direct simulation of tropical cyclones in a high-resolution global model

This paper examines the impact of the dynamical core on the simulation of tropical cyclone (TC) frequency, distribution, and intensity. The dynamical core, the central fluid flow component of any general circulation model (GCM), is often overlooked in the analysis of a models ability to simulate TCs compared to the impact of more commonly documented components (e.g., physical parameterizations). The Community Atmosphere Model version 5 is configured with multiple dynamics packages. This analysis demonstrates that the dynamical core has a significant impact on storm intensity and frequency, even in the presence of similar large-scale environments. In particular, the spectral element core produces stronger TCs and more hurricanes than the finite-volume core using very similar parameterization packages despite the latter having a slightly more favorable TC environment. The results suggest that more detailed investigations into the impact of the GCM dynamical core on TC climatology are needed to fully understand these uncertainties.