Ceyhun Elgin

Institutions, Informal Economy and Economic Development

Using cross-national panel data, we examine the evolution of the informal economy through the course of economic development. Borrowing from previously published informal economy estimates for 141 countries over the period 1984-2009 and using panel data estimation techniques, we investigate the relationship between informal economy and the level of economic development, proxied by gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. Our findings suggest that institutional quality strongly interacts with this relationship. Specifically, we find that a higher GDP per capita is associated with a larger informal sector size in countries where the institutional quality is low. The opposite is true in countries with good institutions. These results are also in line with a two-sector dynamic general equilibrium model.

Cyclicality of Shadow Economy

This article investigates the behaviour of the size of the shadow economy over the business cycle. To this end, it uses a panel dataset of 152 countries and finds strong evidence towards the counter-cyclicality of the informal sector size, that is, the size of the shadow economy as a ratio of gross domestic product (GDP) is reduced in booms and becomes bigger in busts. Empirical results are robust to different econometric specifications. This has serious consequences over the business cycle as it implies that the presence of the shadow economy increases the amplitude of the business cycles.

INFORMAL ECONOMY IN A DYNAMIC POLITICAL FRAMEWORK

I develop a dynamic political economy model with an informal sector and two political parties alternating in office. In equilibrium, if the incumbent political party faces a higher probability of staying in office, it sets a higher tax rate on the formal economy to invest more in productive public capital, while spending less for current office rent. Moreover, I argue that public capital is mainly utilized by the formal sector, and this implies that countries in which incumbent parties are more likely to stay in power have a higher tax burden but a smaller informal sector. I also present some empirical evidence that supports the main results of the model.

A Theory of Economic Development with Endogenous Fertility

In this paper I build a unified model of economic growth to account for the time-series evolution of output, fertility, and population in the industrialization of an economy. Specifically, I merge the unified growth models of Galor and Weil [American Economic Review 90 (2000), 806–828] and Hansen and Prescott [American Economic Review 92 (2002), 1205–1217] to capture the importance of human capital formation, fertility decline, and the transition from agriculture to industry in transition from stagnation to growth. Moreover, I also incorporate young adult mortality into the model. Initially, the aggregate human capital and return to education are low and the mortality rate is high; therefore parents invest in quantity of children. Once sufficient human capital is accumulated and mortality rates are reduced, thanks to increasing life expectancy, with the activation of the modern human capital–intensive sector, parents start to invest in the quality of their children. The simulation of the model economy improves upon the quantitative performance of the existing literature and successfully captures the evolution of fertility, population, and GDP in the British economy between 1750 and 2000.

Religion, Income Inequality, and the Size of the Government

Recent empirical research has demonstrated that countries with higher levels of religiosity are characterized by greater income inequality. We argue that this is due to the lower level of government services demanded in more religious countries. Religion requires that individuals make financial sacrifices and this leads the religious to prefer making their contributions voluntarily rather than through mandatory means. To the extent that citizen preferences are reflected in policy outcomes, religiosity results in lower taxes, which in turn implies lower levels of spending on both public goods and redistribution. Since measures of income typically do not fully take into account the part of income coming from donations received, this increases measured income inequality. We formalize these ideas in a general equilibrium political economy model and also show that the implications of our model are supported by cross-country data.

Homeownership, Informality and the Transmission of Monetary Policy

Cross-country aggregate data exhibits a strong (positive) relationship between the size of the informal employment and aggregate homeownership rates. We investigate this empirical observation using a cash-in-advance model with housing markets and argue that the rate of inflation is important in explaining the nexus between informality and homeownership rates. Specifically, we uncover a novel monetary transmission mechanism and show that households with informal employment desire to economize on their short-term cash usage and avoid periodic rental payments when (i) informality is associated with constrained business investment finance, and (ii) inflation expectations are high. Our empirical and theoretical findings highlight an important interaction between the conduct of monetary policy and the performance of housing markets.

EXTENT AND GROWTH EFFECTS OF INFORMALITY IN TURKEY: EVIDENCE FROM A FIRM-LEVEL SURVEY

In this paper, we provide a measure for both the prevalence and growth effects of informality in Turkey using firm-level data from the Turkish Economy. The survey is conducted in April–May 2013 covering 1000 representative firms interviewing owners/head managers of the firms. Based on the information given by these owners and managers, the survey makes a complete characterization of several firm characteristics, provides complete information on the extent of informality as well as its effects on various economic outcomes of these firms. The cross-sectional econometric analysis we conduct using the survey data shows that there is an inverted-U relationship between a specific measure of informality and growth expectations of firms. These results shed light on our understanding of the specific channels through which informality affects firms’ growth not only in Turkey but in other emerging markets as well.

Growth and informality: A comprehensive panel data analysis

In this paper we empirically explore the impact of the presence of informal economies on long-run economic growth. Using a novel panel dataset of 161 countries over the period from 1950 to 2010 we obtain an inverted-U relationship between informal sector size and growth of GDP per capita. That is, small and large sizes of the informal economy are associated with little growth and medium levels of the size of the informal economy are associated with higher levels of growth. We also observe that in high (low) income economies, informal economy size is positively (negatively) correlated with growth. Moreover, when we decompose growth into several components using a simple growth accounting framework, we find that informality is mainly associated with growth in TFP and that this association is different in high and low-income economies.

Intraocular pressure elevation after intravitreal triamcinolone acetonide injection: a Meta-analysis

AIM To report on intraocular pressure (IOP) after intravitreal injections of triamcinolone acetonide. METHODS Systematic literature review of studies that investigated the effects of an injection of triamcinolone intravitreal triamcinolone acetonide on IOP was conducted according to the Cochrane Collaboration methodology and the reported effects have been analyzed with Meta-analysis. RESULTS We found that the IOP follows an inverted-U shape pattern over time starting with an average value of 14.81±1.22 mm Hg before the injection, rising to a maximum of 19.48±2.15 mm Hg after one month of injection and falling down to 16.16±1.92 mm Hg after 6mo. Moreover, country of study, age, previous history of glaucoma and gender compositions matter for cross-study were different in reported IOP changes. CONCLUSION Our findings may be helpful in determining pressure elevation risk of intravitreal triamcinolone acetonide therapy as well as comparing it with those of more recent therapies such as the anti-vascular endothelial growth factor agents.

Growth Effects Of Inflation Under The Presence Of Informality

In this paper we build an endogenous growth model in which the informal economy is subject to a cash‐in‐advance constraint along with physical capital accumulation and consumption. In this setting, we find that inflation generally adversely affects long‐run growth. However; this effect strongly interacts with the size of the informal economy. Specifically, the negative effect becomes milder (and can even be positive) under the presence of a large informal economy. Moreover, using an annual cross‐country panel data set of 161 countries over the period 1950‐2010 we also provide some empirical support for the mechanism of our theory.